Hurricane Ian expected to impact Florida (updates and related discussions)

[GhostHost1000]

While y'all are nitpicking the cone, can we just take a minute to remember that the winds didn't decimate the area, the storm surge did.

View attachment 670069

They were unfortunately positioned to catch all that water that was pulled out of Tampa Bay and Peace River and it shot right up into their houses. As much as we talk about where this the Hurricaine is going to hit and Howe much storm surge is expected, I'll be honest and say I had no way of comprehending the magnitude of this storm surge impact until I watched it roll in on video and on Twitter posts.

It was pretty mind blowing to see. They were predicting up to 18ft of surge in some places though, I think residents and heck even us have a hard time imagining sometimes what that really means or may look like and do. Hate to see so many lives changed forever

 

[DryerLintFan]

If a person lives in Florida and does not have a basic understanding of hurricane size and impacts, they are a lost cause.

Tourists can be forgiven for their ignorance, but not locals.

I live in freakin’ Connecticut and we know enough to stock up if a tropical system or nor’easter is predicted to come anywhere within a couple hundred miles. The projected paths always shift wildly.

It's worth mentioning that there's a lot of new Floridians since the last major Hurricaine. Lots of people have moved down there even since just the start of the pandemic. They're taking their cues from Florida natives, who are competing with each other to see who can act the most nonchalant about a cat 4 Hurricaine bearing down on them.

 

[GhostHost1000]

Big tree down at Saratoga congress park. Looks to have fallen into grassy area but very close to building and vehicles

 

[Andrew C]

COWs are used in many different emergency situations. Here are still me photos of the unit we set up outside the Pentagon after 9/11. This is an old, early version of a COW we called the “bread truck”. You can see the portable generator used to power it in one photo, In the photo from above, the COW is in the lower left corner.View attachment 670062View attachment 670063View attachment 670064View attachment 670065View attachment 670066View attachment 670067

Thanks for the details. I appreciate it.

 

[larryz]

We had our lines buried from the street to our house (in a subdivision) and it cost us nearly $10k from Duke (Indiana). It was ridiculous. But we were tired of trees losing limbs, hitting the line to our house and causing damage and I cannot get my ignorant neighbors to cut these trees down. After the last time when it tore the power cable partially loose and caused our furnace, two TV's (on surge protectors), a microwave and multiple lights to blow out in the house we decided to fork over the money for the line burial and a natural gas powered generator.

my whole neighborhood has buried lines -- which is great -- but even buried lines get fed from overhead wires, and sometimes they get knocked down/blown down/weighed down or some squirrel commits self-immolation on a transformer and our power goes out for a few hours.

 

[mightynine]

True. Except the entire cone over the course of the week went from the left edge of Apalchicola to the right edge of extreme SW FL with the center from Tallahassee to Fr. Myers. You can't plan with that.

I can't tell you how many times I've heard "Impacts will be felt outside the cone." They are not just saying that for fun.

The very first initial five-day cone for Ian included ALL of the peninsula. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings extend well outside the cone the day before landfall. If you're complaining about how they may have said one thing a week before landfall and something different happened, you're making a silly argument. This is a real-time event - things are going to change.

We don't have the technology to say exactly where the center of a massive storm is going to land. And the NHC is always forthcoming about their level of confidence on their forecasts.

It’s very hard to concisely communicate to the public.

Especially with the "public" we have these days.

 

[DCBaker]

 

[GhostHost1000]

Saratoga congress park

 

[donsullivan]

I can't tell you how many times I've heard "Impacts will be felt outside the cone." They are not just saying that for fun.

View attachment 670071

The very first initial five-day cone for Ian included ALL of the peninsula. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings extend well outside the cone the day before landfall. If you're complaining about how they may have said one thing a week before landfall and something different happened, you're making a silly argument. This is a real-time event - things are going to change.

We don't have the technology to say exactly where the center of a massive storm is going to land. And the NHC is always forthcoming about their level of confidence on their forecasts.



Especially with the "public" we have these days.

That’s why they call it the ‘cone of uncertainty’. The center of the storm could follow any track within that cone. And that path gets refreshed 4 times a day based on the latest available data and when needed, the cone is moved.

 

[larryz]

Tell that to the peeps in Cape Coral area who kept hearing warnings for Tampa, so they felt a sense of safety.

This tin foil hat I'm wearing keeps my brain protected.

If they were watching the whole time, they weren't surprised. And if they were in the area in 2004, they knew what was coming. Charley did them the same thing.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

True. Except the entire cone over the course of the week went from the left edge of Apalchicola to the right edge of extreme SW FL with the center from Tallahassee to Fr. Myers. You can't plan with that.

It was a model about 6 days out.

It wasn’t going to Pensacola. But you definitely said that way too far out.

You were playing in Orlando and didn’t want to miss out on the Mickey bars. It’s ok. Disappointment was warranted.

But it wasn’t a government failure. You cooked that up. It was “operator error” in your mind.

Can we please move on now? I’ll put in a call to some big wigs down there and see if we can get you a park opened up today? All is right with the world then.

 

[mickeyfan73]

While y'all are nitpicking the cone, can we just take a minute to remember that the winds didn't decimate the area, the storm surge did.

View attachment 670069

They were unfortunately positioned to catch all that water that was pulled out of Tampa Bay and Peace River and it shot right up into their houses. As much as we talk about where this the Hurricaine is going to hit and Howe much storm surge is expected, I'll be honest and say I had no way of comprehending the magnitude of this storm surge impact until I watched it roll in on video and on Twitter posts.

That is why my post focuses on the evacuations orders.. At that point turn the news off and start packing and preparing. It would be a different story if there was no order and you were affected like this.

 

[JohnD]

I may have mentioned this earlier but "hurricane rates" at Boma for breakfast are $15 and for dinner are $20.

That doesn't mean come racing over here in the middle of a hurricane. It does mean that Disney can lower the rates as most resort guests riding out the storm will be eating there than out at the parks and guests can save a little bit of money on meals.

 

[wdwmagic]

...PRELIMINARY HIGHEST WIND GUST REPORTS FROM HURRICANE IAN...

Location Speed Time/Date Lat/Lon

...Florida...

...Orange County...
Orlando Intl Aiport 67 MPH 0735 AM 09/29 28.42N/81.33W
Reedy Lake 58 MPH 0326 AM 09/29 28.44N/81.63W
Maitland (WEATHERSTEM) 55 MPH 0630 AM 09/29 28.63N/81.36W
Windermere Preparatory Schoo 53 MPH 0430 AM 09/29 28.48N/81.57W
1.9 NW University Park (WEAT 52 MPH 0110 AM 09/29 28.59N/81.20W
Lake Nona 49 MPH 0145 AM 09/29 28.39N/81.18W
1.0 NW Eatonville (WEATHERST 46 MPH 0540 AM 09/29 28.63N/81.40W
0.8 N Sea World (WEATHERSTEM 45 MPH 0300 AM 09/29 28.42N/81.46W
Magic Kingdom 45 MPH 1220 AM 09/29 28.42N/81.57W
1 E Oak Ridge 45 MPH 0615 PM 09/28 28.47N/81.40W
Orlando 43 MPH 0130 AM 09/29 28.49N/81.27W
1 NW Doctor Phillips 41 MPH 0640 AM 09/29 28.46N/81.50W
Pine Hills 41 MPH 0634 AM 09/29 28.58N/81.46W
Winter Garden 40 MPH 0718 AM 09/29 28.52N/81.63W

...Osceola County...
Fswn Osceola Heritage Park 56 MPH 0200 AM 09/29 28.30N/81.37W
Kissimmee Orland 55 MPH 0653 AM 09/29 28.28N/81.43W
2.3 SE Intercession City (WE 54 MPH 1220 AM 09/29 28.23N/81.49W
St. Cloud 47 MPH 0116 AM 09/29 28.26N/81.14W
Saint Cloud 39 MPH 0120 AM 09/29 28.20N/81.28W

 

[JoeCamel]

While y'all are nitpicking the cone, can we just take a minute to remember that the winds didn't decimate the area, the storm surge did.

View attachment 670069

They were unfortunately positioned to catch all that water that was pulled out of Tampa Bay and Peace River and it shot right up into their houses. As much as we talk about where this the Hurricaine is going to hit and Howe much storm surge is expected, I'll be honest and say I had no way of comprehending the magnitude of this storm surge impact until I watched it roll in on video and on Twitter posts.

And all that water coming down the Peace is going to keep it high for a while, sorry you got hit again

 

[wdwmagic]

I may have mentioned this earlier but "hurricane rates" at Boma for breakfast are $15 and for dinner are $20.

That doesn't mean come racing over here in the middle of a hurricane. It does mean that Disney can lower the rates as most resort guests riding out the storm will be eating there than out at the parks and guests can save a little bit of money on meals.

Good to see. Is is the same buffet as usual, or a modified version?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I may have mentioned this earlier but "hurricane rates" at Boma for breakfast are $15 and for dinner are $20.

That doesn't mean come racing over here in the middle of a hurricane. It does mean that Disney can lower the rates as most resort guests riding out the storm will be eating there than out at the parks and guests can save a little bit of money on meals.

Which kinda shows how much you’re overpaying next week, huh?

But credit to them. Wdw has always handled storms well. In many ways it’s their “finest moments”

 

[Chomama]

 

[Piebald]

I'm in a Facebook group about people moving to Orlando (mainly for Disney) and I'm wondering what this storm will do for them. Seems like Kissimmee (a favorite of the group for some..reason) got some really bad flooding from my understanding. Not just flooding on streets but water getting into people's homes.

 

[larryz]

The problem with hurricane forecasting and reporting is the cone. It shows where the CENTER of the storm may go. They need that cone showing effects from the storm outside of that cone as well based on the size.

Also imo not enough reporting on the direction of the storm and the inflow from the eye wall which plays a major factor in damage and surge

The cone is already labeled with an explicit warning that storm effects will often exceed the limits of the cone. The thing people seem to overlook is that the cone shows where the eye of the storm MIGHT go... it can wobble left or right anywhere that cone covers. It gets narrower as the time gets closer and the forecasters are more confident.

If you want to see the expected effects areas, you have to look at the projected wind speed, surge, and rainfall charts -- available on the same page at NHC.NOAA.GOV.