Hurricane Ian expected to impact Florida (updates and related discussions)

Tha Realest

Well-Known Member
Stormchasers, but they’re Disney diehards that quickly schedule trips in advance of an oncoming hurricane with the hope and expectation it’ll fizzle out and they‘ll be in a near-empty park.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
06A83424-B312-4694-82A9-66ACF6F4FFD9.jpeg

New map, reminder no change in track with this one. But of note it’s more north then expected.
 

TTA94

Well-Known Member
Wind wise yes, rain wise no. This thing is going to be a massive soaker wherever it goes.

I don’t think this is expected but could this cross FL, regain some strength in the Atlantic and turn north, becoming a big coastal storm? Or are there other factors at play that will prevent that from happening?
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I don’t think this is expected but could this cross FL, regain some strength in the Atlantic and turn north, becoming a big coastal storm? Or are there other factors at play that will prevent that from happening?
That hasn’t been predicted in days, with the storm expected to mainly move north it’s hard to get back over water before falling apart.
 

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
Shear and dry air are sapping this storm, might have to get up past Cuba before it can build. I'm seeing westward movement but the shear is pushing the cloudtops off to the east, makes it look like a center of circulation is to the east of where it really is.
 

ToTBellHop

Well-Known Member
That hasn’t been predicted in days, with the storm expected to mainly move north it’s hard to get back over water before falling apart.
Isn’t it also supposed to get pushed by a cold front? My meteorological understanding is very limited but I thought a cold front was approaching the area this week.

ETA:
1664137018357.gif

I can’t see that front allowing this to have much impact further up the coast.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Isn’t it also supposed to get pushed by a cold front? My meteorological understanding is very limited but I thought a cold front was approaching the area this week.
That’s why it would bump into FL, but because the storm is coming Wednesday instead of Tuesday the front will not be as strong.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
E85671B5-AE8E-4259-BB3D-1F8EF5BCE5A5.jpeg

It’s here, in the discussion they talk about how the models diverge so much it’s very difficult. Basically, the European Model follows the eastern edge of the cone while other models follow the western edge and the gfs is the midline. The cones southeastern edge has literally been unchanged for 2 cycles now resulting in a weird shape. Let’s see what 11pm shows. My rental car needs to be canceled by tomorrow morning, so the 11pm run will likely be the decider for me.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
View attachment 669113
It’s here, in the discussion they talk about how the models diverge so much it’s very difficult. Basically, the European Model follows the eastern edge of the cone while other models follow the western edge and the gfs is the midline. The cones southeastern edge has literally been unchanged for 2 cycles now resulting in a weird shape. Let’s see what 11pm shows. My rental car needs to be canceled by tomorrow morning, so the 11pm run will likely be the decider for me.
In the times I’ve made a reservation for a rental car at times I never even bothered to cancel if I did not go. I was not assessed a penalty.
 

GhostHost1000

Premium Member
It is VERY important to remember the cone is where the center of the storm can go, not the effects of the hurricane. This is predicted to be a massive sized storm coming in. Latest models show trends to the east again…likely Tampa or big bend area. Disney will have effects. How much is still to be determined but I expect them to close for a day if things stay as they look and we may see some minor damage depending on the tracks (trees etc)

I have no relation which this site and since this is potentially a life threatening situation for some along the coast I think it will be ok to share….a very good place for up to date information and all the different models and thinking is mikes weather page spaghettimodels.com
 
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Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Schools in Hillsbourough County (Tampa) will be closed through Thursday. If you think the parks are going to be open Wed-Thur you’re crazy. Unless there is a shift west at 11, I’ll be calling it.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
It is VERY important to remember the cone is where the center of the storm can go, not the effects of the hurricane. This is predicted to be a massive sized storm coming in. Latest models show trends to the east again…likely Tampa or big bend area. Disney will have effects. How much is still to be determined but I expect them to close for a day if things stay as they look and we may see some minor damage depending on the tracks (trees etc)

I have no relation which this site but since this is potentially a life threatening situation for some along the coast I wanted to share….a very good place for up to date information and all the different models and thinking is mikes weather page spaghettimodels.com
True, you see that X on the map, well it’s raining in Cuba already, while clouds are nearly in Central America as well that’s how big Ian is, Orlando is forecasted to get 7-10 inches of rain in the next week due to this system. Again, if things do not change it’s going to be miserable in Florida mid week. Be prepared.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Schools in Hillsbourough County (Tampa) will be closed through Thursday. If you think the parks are going to be open Wed-Thur you’re crazy. Unless there is a shift west at 11, I’ll be calling it.
I would be very surprised if airports are open mid week. I would have to agree with you on the parks. It would not be safe for them to operate in upcoming weather.
 

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