Hurricane Helene (2024)

networkpro

networkpro

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
Ayla said:
Why is Disney not stepping up and announcing an early closing time today? 5pm? 6pm? Not only for guest safety but to also allow CM's to safely get home, after having to secure the park?
Click to expand...
Magic Kingdom hours were extended until 8pm. It's not much of an event around bay lake.
 
Gringrinngghost

Gringrinngghost

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Code: 
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS EVENING AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 85.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 85.5 West. Helene is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A
significant increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24
hours.  On the forecast track, Helene will make landfall in the
Florida Big Bend region this evening. After landfall, Helene is
expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee
Valley on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene
is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big
Bend coast this evening.  Weakening is expected after landfall, but
Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the
southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians.

Helene is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles
(555 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late today.  Tropical storm conditions have
already begun in the Florida Keys and portions of south
Florida, and these conditions are expected to spread northward
across the tropical storm warning areas in the southeastern U.S.
through early Friday.  Strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts,
will likely penetrate as far inland as the higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the warning
area in western Cuba during the next couple of hours.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba. This rainfall
brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in
steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: The risk for several tornadoes will gradually increase
today through tonight. The greatest threat is expected from parts of
northern Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low
Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect much of Florida and
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of
days.  Swells will also continue across portions of Cuba and the
Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN
 
L

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
JohnD said:
I understand people are monitoring this storm for impacts to WDW as this is the focus of this forum. But please pause for a moment to think about the impact to Tallahassee and the surrounding Big Bend area. This storm is shaping up to be one of the largest hurricanes to hit the Big Bend area since Michael which hit the Gulf Coast to Tallahasse's west in 2019. The last storm to hit Tallahassee directly was Kate in 1985 as Cat 1. This is likely to be Cat 3 or greater. The area has already been impacted by Hermine in 2016, Idalia last year, and Debby in August. It is for that reason I left home and am now in Jacksonville. I just hope I have a home when I return afterward.

Edit: Now forecast to be Cat 4 by Thursday at 2pm. Holy crap!

View attachment 817881
Click to expand...
Tallahassee already is 7 inches over on rain levels for the city , add to expected flooding will make it worse since the ground is very saturated , approx 50% of the city is tree canopy. A Cat 4 would wreck the capital if it is indeed a Cat 4.
 
Captain Barbossa

Captain Barbossa

Well-Known Member
I’ve noticed a good many of the models are showing that this won’t become a cat 4. Hopefully that’ll stay true, but we shall see. Not that a strong cat 3 is significantly better than a weak cat 4, but every bit helps.

@JohnD my thoughts and well wishes are with you and the rest of Tallahassee. Hopefully, my Tigers and your Noles will still be able to duke it out down there next Saturday.
 
LSLS

LSLS

Well-Known Member
Captain Barbossa said:
I’ve noticed a good many of the models are showing that this won’t become a cat 4. Hopefully that’ll stay true, but we shall see. Not that a strong cat 3 is significantly better than a weak cat 4, but every bit helps.

@JohnD my thoughts and well wishes are with you and the rest of Tallahassee. Hopefully, my Tigers and your Noles will still be able to duke it out down there next Saturday.
Click to expand...
I heard some people say it's picking up speed, I wonder if that is why they are backing off the cat 4, it's just not going to have enough time? But agree, hope it drops, this thing looks like it's going to be bad, and it's going to be bad well inland.
 
L

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
LSLS said:
I heard some people say it's picking up speed, I wonder if that is why they are backing off the cat 4, it's just not going to have enough time? But agree, hope it drops, this thing looks like it's going to be bad, and it's going to be bad well inland.
Click to expand...
FSU resume classes on Monday and students on campus are being to told to evacuate from the dorms and leave Tallahassee.
 

Register on WDWMAGIC. This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.

Back
Top Bottom