Hurricane Helene (2024)

C

cr3346

Active Member
LSLS said:
I heard some people say it's picking up speed, I wonder if that is why they are backing off the cat 4, it's just not going to have enough time? But agree, hope it drops, this thing looks like it's going to be bad, and it's going to be bad well inland.
Click to expand...
The storm is so broad, which has limited its strength. The tighter the storm, the stronger it gets.
 
Gringrinngghost

Gringrinngghost

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Code: 
000
WTNT34 KNHC 261747
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
100 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 85.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued the tropical storm warning
for the island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 85.0 West. Helene is moving
toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A significant
increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours.  On
the forecast track, Helene will make landfall in the Florida Big
Bend region this evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to turn
northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene
is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big
Bend coast this evening.  Weakening is expected after landfall, but
Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the
southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians.

Helene is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).
A weather station in Tarpon Point recently reported a sustained
wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). 

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late today.  Tropical storm conditions have
occurring in the Florida Keys and portions of southern and
southwestern Florida, and these conditions are expected to spread
northward across the tropical storm warning areas in the
southeastern U.S. through early Friday.  Strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, will likely penetrate as far inland as the
higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba. This rainfall
brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in
steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: The risk for several tornadoes will gradually increase
today through tonight. The greatest threat is expected from parts of
northern Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low
Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect much of Florida and
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of
days.  Swells will also continue across portions of Cuba and the
Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

Hourly position and intensity information will be provided in
Tropical Cyclone Updates beginning at 300 PM EDT/200 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
Captain Barbossa

Captain Barbossa

Well-Known Member
Well, just had our 5th tornado warning of the day for my neck of the woods here in SC. All from a system separate from Helene that’s supposed to move out within the next 2-3hrs. But once it moves out, she moves in. One two punch for us. More tornadoes expected here from her. Next 16-18hrs are going to be long.
 
esskay

esskay

Well-Known Member
Been at uni since rope drop, other than the 30 minute storm this morning it’s been a pretty normal day here, just with less people. Got hagrids in 3 times, didn’t queue more than 10 minutes each time, lots of people around city walk, very little sign of any preparations being done. Does look like it’s going to be very minimal in this part of FL.
 
Gringrinngghost

Gringrinngghost

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Code: 
941
WTNT64 KNHC 261825
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
225 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HELENE A MAJOR HURRICANE...

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h).  This makes
Helene a dangerous category 3 major hurricane.  Additional
strengthening is expected before Helene makes landfall in the
Florida Big Bend this evening.

SUMMARY OF 225 PM EDT...1825 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 84.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...280 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg/Brown
 
L

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
vikescaper said:
I went into work for a bit this morning. This is the water situation in downtown St. Pete from about an hour ago. The water is very close to going over the seawall. I am safe at home now.View attachment 818020
Click to expand...
My friend sandbagged and barricaded his home which is in a suburb of Tampa Bay. With the predicted 5-8 ft storm surge in Tampa , those first floor areas of those waterfront condos and office buildings will be underwater.
 
The Mighty Tim

The Mighty Tim

Well-Known Member
IanDLBZF said:
FYI, the MK ➡️TTC ferry boat is down due to sustained winds over 17 kn. I need to assume that other watercraft transportation, and possibly the Skyliner is down as well.

And FYI, buses and monorails, as well as Minnie Vans will suspend service if there are winds over 39 mph or in the event of catastrophic flooding.
Click to expand...
That's worth knowing, though I was intending to remain at my resort tonight anyway.
 

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