Here we go again...

[SpongeScott]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W5+gif/204602W_sm.gif

Probably not gonna be a threat to the WDW area, but another one still the same.

 

[pinkrose]

Let's hope it doesn't become a bad one. There sure are some warm waters down there.


BY 36-48
HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST THE
WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN 60-72 HOURS...AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY 96 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY WHEN A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WILL DEVELOP AND HOW SOON
CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONGLY DIFLUENT FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY AFTER THAT. SINCE THE SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW AT AROUND 10 KT AND SSTS WILL BE NEAR 31C UNDER THE
CENTER...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER. IF
CENTRAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN THIS
SYSTEM COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.

 

[pinkrose]

The models are all over the place....

 

[SpongeScott]

The models are all over the place....

I hope that one going right across the Bay area is wrong!

 

[kal1484]

I just hope that it doesn't hit anytime near the 12th! I'm flying out to Cali!!! :O

 

[pinkrose]

You mean the black line that goes right through your house?





Seriously, I hope it doesn't hit ANYONE's house.

Same here!

 

[Magic Maker]

*sigh* the time is drawing near now. September is the worst.

 

[Irrawaddy Erik]

Crap....LOLL They are already talking about taking precautions in New Orleans.

 

[Figment1986]

I hope that one going right across the Bay area is wrong!

Why.. We could use the flooding and loads of rain... and have football games cancled and have me miss class.. LOl.. J/K

I hope this takes a path where it doesn't hurt people..

oh and weather chennel says might become tropical storm before landfall...

flooding in souther and central FLA... thought last time i checked.. they say other thigns all the time..

 

[SpongeScott]

You mean the black line that goes right through your house?

misses me to the south by about 10 miles.

 

[STITCHRULES]

Anyone from the Orlando area have a handle on what Saturday will be like? We are heading to WDW in the early am from Boca. Looks like we will have the storm Thurs. night/Friday early morning, then moving out by Friday afternoon. Are they saying the same things up there or will it be better? We never get good Orlando info down here....

 

[cindy_k]

Katrina is born

000
Wtnt62 Knhc 241209
Tcuat2
Tropical Storm Katrina Tropical Cyclone Update
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
805 Am Edt Wed Aug 24 2005
...reconnaissance Aircraft Data Indicates That Tropical Depression
Twelve Has Strengthened Into Tropical Storm Katrina...

Shortly Before 8 Am Edt...reports From An Air Force Reserve Unit
Reconnaissance Aircraft Indicate Maximum Sustained Surface Winds In
The Tropical Depression Twelve Had Increased To At Least 40 Mph
...making The System Tropical Storm Katrina.

Forecaster Stewart

 

[pinkrose]

Some mighty warm waters....

 

[pinkrose]

At 11 Am Edt...1500z...a Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane
Watch Have Been Issued For The Southeast Florida Coast From Vero
Beach Southward To Florida City. This Replaces The Tropical Storm
Watch. A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Central And
Northwest Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical
Storm Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The
Next 24 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For The Middle And Upper
Florida Keys From West Of The Seven Mile Bridge Northward To South
Of Florida City. A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm
Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36
Hours.

A Watch Or Warning May Be Required For Lake Okeechobee Later Today.
A Hurricane Warning May Be Required For Portions Of The Northwest
Bahamas Later Today

 

[pinkrose]

 

[The Mom]

The local weather is predicting some nasty weather for Fri night into Sat...not dangerous, just "blech." I suspect that the same will hold true for WDW; lots of windy rain off and on all day.

 

[pinkrose]

Here's the latest sat. pic....

 

[CAPTAIN HOOK]

How many hurricanes / tropical storms etc have there been in and around the Florida area this year ?
PS - If it does come near land I hope everyone stays safe

 

[Figment1986]

I really love how it is hitting pininncula.. then heading for the pan handle... strange weather.. meaning.. rain for me for a while.. Far away from me still... but who knows if that will change..

 

[pinkrose]

Here's the latest track...