Fun With Numbers: MK Maingate Blackout Edition

[PhotoDave219]

Okay, This is important enough IMO to give its own thread to. We have enough Cast Members who lurk & read on these forums. Its an important issue.

So lets talk CM Maingate blackouts at MK. (as @akayw0718 reminds us, a maingate is just getting friends/family in and does not block out a CM's admission. Usually CM + 3 people.)

As an introduction, we're looking at the days CMs were blacked out and looking at MK's crowd level, using Touring Plans as our dataset. The biggest question I have is whether or not that particular day was justified to blackout.

2014?

• 42% of the entire year (153 days), a CM maingate was blacked out.
• 2014 through June 13th? 54 days out of 164. 33% of the time.
• February 2014 has zero days. July was blacked out 28 times, or 90% of the month.
• 25% of the blacked out time, a peak crowd showed. (38 times)
• 9% of the blacked out time, an off-peak crowd shows. (14 times)
• 6.5% of the blacked out time, a crowd level of 1/2 showed. (10 times, split evenly)
• 66% of the blacked out time, an average crowd showed. (101 times)
• Of those, A crowd level of 7 showed 42 times or 28% of the blacked out time.

So for 2014? They clearly blew it about 9% of the blacked out days. At least 25% of the time, it was justifiable, with a peak crowd showing. The other 66%? Thats an excellent question.

Here's the visual breakdown by crowd level.

View attachment 97119


2015 So Far?

• 50% of the year THUS FAR (through June 13th) was blacked out. 82 out of 164 days. Or 28 more times than 2014, thru same time period.
• March has the most (sofar, that will change) with 21 days blacked out/67.7% of the time. January had the least, six times or 19% of the month
• June through the 13th has the most percentage wise, with 84% of the this month, 11 of 13 days. (That will change.)
• 45% of the blacked out time, a peak crowd (8+) showed. (37 times, also 22.5% of the year thus far)
• 3.6% of the blacked out time, an off-peak crowd (1-3) showed. (Three times, one crowd level 2 and two crowd level 3. )
• 51% of the blacked out time, an average crowd (4-7) showed. (42 times)
• 33% of the blacked out crowd, a crowd level 6 or 7 showed. (27 times)
• The most frequent black out days happened on either a crowd level 6 day or a crowd level 9 day, each 16 times.

Observations? Well, they're more accurate with which days could be justifiably blacked out, only blowing it three times. 45% of the time, its justifiable IMO. Did blacking out those 27 days of a 6 or a 7 really work? IDK.


Here's the Comparisons of 2014 v 2015 for the first 5 months. Clearly, many more blackout days in 2015. When June ends, I'll include that data. And June will spike.

View attachment 97121

More fun with numbers at the beginning of next month, we'll look at the first six months of 2015 vs 2013 & 2014 and see what trends emerge.

Sources: Blackout days, Disney. Crowd Level, Touring Plans. Peak Crowds are defined as 8+. Average 4-7 and Off-Peak 1-3.

 

[Nemo14]

Just for clarification purposes, how far ahead of time are CM's informed of blackout days?

 

[PhotoDave219]

Just for clarification purposes, how far ahead of time are CM's informed of blackout days?

Excellent question. Maybe one of our CMs can tell us? Two to Three Months. So 90 days? Versus the 180 days out you can book dining reservations.

Per their FAQ....

Block-out dates are determined by Industrial Engineering to anticipate potential high attendance days based on that from last year, trends, and forecasting. Because of this process, block-out dates are only available two to three months in advance.

Any block-out dates that have been decided are immediately posted to this site. If there is a month currently without data the block-out information is not available yet.

 

[tirian]

The sudden benefits cutbacks influenced my decision to leave the company. The MK was frequently blocked out for no reason. Hotel rooms were often impossible to book, and sat empty because someone decided they'd rather have no money than some at a discount. Besides, how could you book the few hotel rooms available when you didn't know whether or not your Maingate would be good for admission? The process of making restaurant reservations became a complicated joke. The merch discounts were generous, but how many Mickey t-shirts do you need?

For years I knew I could get paid more elsewhere, but the Disney Difference benefits package made up for the pay gap. When the financial boys and girls started cutting into discounts to make their spreadsheets look better, I left.

CMs deserve discounts for their hard work and low pay.

I don't think most fans understand that the people running the parks don't get their historical, cultural, or company significance. Everything comes down to the next pay bonus for those small-minded business people who sell and market Widgets, not Walt's dream.

 

[tirian]

This also demonstrates what theme park afficianados have claimed for at least five years: the MK needs more capacity.

EC, HS, and DAK need more attractions to help spread the crowds, but the MK is the castle park. It will always be the most popular. It has the highest official attendance of any theme park worldwide and the fewest things to do compared to DL or TDL (its nearest competitors).

 

[Tom]

So what I'm reading is that TDO needs to buy a subscription to Touring Plans, right @lentesta ?

 

[PhotoDave219]

So what I'm reading is that TDO needs to buy a subscription to Touring Plans, right @lentesta ?

Lol. No, Disney needs to make their attendance numbers available especially if they're going to do this as well as give tiered pricing.

Especially when in 2014 they blacked out days that didn't deserve it 9% of the time...

 

[-em]

A large part of the issue- giving main gates to ALL cms (Disney store, abc, ESPN, marvel etc) so you have 3-4x more cards in circulation than pre 2014..

 

[PhotoDave219]

A large part of the issue- giving main gates to ALL cms (Disney store, abc, ESPN, marvel etc) so you have 3-4x more cards in circulation than pre 2014..

I recognize your profile photo....

Anyways. Yes, back in the day, you had to be with the company x amount of time before you hit your main gate and I don't think CPs count

 

[gmajew]

So do they have more black out dates in summer? Wonder if that is to prevent the college interns from storming the park?

 

[matt9112]

Dave do you justify blacking out main gate on average crowd level days? I mean I hardly think main gates would make matters much worse. (Granted I think statisticly main gates proably don't alter crowd levels more than a few percent?)

 

[PhotoDave219]

Dave do you justify blacking out main gate on average crowd level days? I mean I hardly think main gates would make matters much worse. (Granted I think statisticly main gates proably don't alter crowd levels more than a few percent?)

I don't have enough data or information as to what Disney is using to black out maingates.

From a personal opinion? Nope. Blacking out maingates on the peak (8+) days make sense, those days where it's a 6/7? I don't know. I don't think there are that many maingates where it would affect attendance that much, maybe boost the crowd level by one?

Suffice to say, it's lost potential revenue.

 

[PhotoDave219]

So do they have more black out dates in summer? Wonder if that is to prevent the college interns from storming the park?

Well, maybe their families. The CPs can still go to the park, this is all about keeping Cast from being able to get anyone into the parks for free.

(And part of me would be fine if the CPs and their poor behavior weren't in the parks)

 

[mm52200]

They seem to love blocking out MK for the whole summer while Epcot, DHS, and DAK have no blocks out except for maybe Epcot on July 4. I'm not sure why they've started blocking out MK as much they have been. DL which is having it's 60th anniversary celebration this summer only has a few blockout dates around July 4 and that's pretty much it.

 

[stini228]

This year, August is blocked until the 23rd. Last year, only the 1st thru the 8th were blocked. Killing us as we're expecting guests in August. Hoping they get lifted.

 

[PhotoDave219]

This year, August is blocked until the 23rd. Last year, only the 1st thru the 8th were blocked. Killing us as we're expecting guests in August. Hoping they get lifted.

They seem to love blocking out MK for the whole summer while Epcot, DHS, and DAK have no blocks out except for maybe Epcot on July 4. I'm not sure why they've started blocking out MK as much they have been. DL which is having it's 60th anniversary celebration this summer only has a few blockout dates around July 4 and that's pretty much it.

There are reasons why I'm trying to put this information out there.

My question: are they justified? That's what I'm looking to answer.

Also... If anyone has old school blackout days list, would be appreciated

 

[Figments Friend]

I don't think most fans understand that the people running the parks don't get their historical, cultural, or company significance. Everything comes down to the next pay bonus for those small-minded business people who sell and market Widgets, not Walt's dream.

Quoted so folks will re-read this part.
Something to think about, folks.....

 

[hopemax]

During the late 90's - early 2000's they used to be printed in the little paper folder the pass came in, and were what you would expect. Major holidays. Prior to that, I guess they didn't exist. This blog has an image with a couple different years. You can click for a larger image to read the ones for 1998 and 2000.

http://disneyonparole.blogspot.com/2009/06/disney-main-gate-pass-and-silver-pass.html

 

[PhotoDave219]

During the late 90's - early 2000's they used to be printed in the little paper folder the pass came in, and were what you would expect. Major holidays. Prior to that, I guess they didn't exist. This blog has an image with a couple different years. You can click for a larger image to read the ones for 1998 and 2000.

http://disneyonparole.blogspot.com/2009/06/disney-main-gate-pass-and-silver-pass.html

Thank you sir.......

 

[WDW1974]

Dave, you are working way too hard. Great stuff, but you really should get paid for it. Of course, I often say the same about myself here!

One thing you should look at and compare is the blockouts in Anaheim (and you could even throw in Paris and HK for fun -- FYI, you probably know this but not everyone does, but WDW Maingates are good at all Disney resorts in the world with the exception of TDR as those parks are owned entirely by the OLC, which doesn't even provide its CMs with free tickets for a day!)