Frontierland makeover

[Darth Sidious]

The fact that you think Universal could have a higher profit *share* than Disney in the Orlando market shows that this finance discussion needs to end. Now. Margin and share are not the same thing. On no planet would anyone trade earning 20% margin on 45 million visitors for earning 30% on 14 million visitors, especially when the 20% comes with two dozen resorts, conference visitors, and a shopping district that dwarfs CityWalk both in physical size and number of first-party operating locations. Anyone banging on about Universal's higher P&R margins obviously has no grasp on the totality of the situation and is just dicing numbers to serve their prerogative.


Perhaps you're young, but this same argument was percolating around the Internet back in 1999. The scenario was literally identical. I was at IOA a few Saturdays ago and did Hulk, Spiderman twice, Dr. Doom twice, HP twice, the Olivander show, and both dragon coasters in a tick under three hours. It already isn't what it once was, which is why you see Universal going nuts to get Transformers done by June - because they know they don't want to have another summer like this recently past one. Over the course of 23 years, Universal hasn't been able to sustain anything without lumping substantial amounts of cash at the parks, and even when they do, it then trails off and they aren't outpacing organic market growth over the long term. I find it hilarious that people keep coming back to guest spending numbers at Universal when (according to sources I trust) those numbers (and the articles about them... go figure) dried up almost a year ago.

Some Frontierland discussion this has all turned into

Finance is my thing so I like it but what you said here is correct. Comparing the margins of TWDC and Uni is not wise. It is apples and oranges when you look at the scale of the two companies. You can compare individual park attendance in the same market but not the aggregate business segments.

 

[John]

Building one ride or mulitble rides isnt going to fix WDW. The property has been largely ignored for so long that quick fix investment will do very little. NexGen is the biggest investment in WDW in years and IMO I think the guest will barely notice this improvement (debatable) very much. I think it benifits management way more then it will benifit guest. Part of the budget was to improve (again debatable) queue lines. I understand there is an agregate effect that building several rides will have. But do you in heart of hearts think that TDO/Burbank is going to spend that sort of coin? I couldnt care less if they built one single e-ticket ride. I would love to see them just improve what they already have. I dont see thhe appeal of one e-ticket ride that last 70 seconds and has some snot nosed twenty something stationed at the entrance welcomeing me. Take that money and layer the parks with more themeing condusive to the park. GOD please fix DHS. Build more incredible dining experiences people will spend money for that. Improve quality. I love the thought of a WRE ride, but how cool would it be to have some real cowboys roaming the area. How about an Indian village where we could be educated about native Americans? Solicit the help of the great native American tribes to imangineer such a place. Does standing in line for 120 minutes for a 70 second ride really improve your vacation?

 

[John]

Finance is my thing so I like it but what you said here is correct. Comparing the margins of TWDC and Uni is not wise. It is apples and oranges when you look at the scale of the two companies. You can compare individual park attendance in the same market but not the aggregate business segments.

I agree with what you and Sir mentioned, its obvious you know what you speak, but I think the point missing isnt that they are comparable but that UNI was cutting into WDW margin.....no?

 

[SirOinksALot]

I agree with what you and Sir mentioned, its obvious you know what you speak, but I think the point missing isnt that they are comparable but that UNI was cutting into WDW margin.....no?

It's impossible to parse it by specific areas, but it isn't the doom and gloom you'd read online. If there actually was a flood of people who left Disney for Universal, they were for the most part replaced by another flood of people who were willing to pay higher prices. I'm struggling to find any evidence that margins took a huge hit beyond the 2010 initial HP crush (which, let's be honest, was a crush back when there were lines to get into the area but just isn't there anymore as evidenced by the lack of waits at FJ or lines for Ollivander). The Universal argument is largely based in speculation, like WDW occupancy being way down (mind you, all those DVC resorts running at 85-90% don't count in that figure) or their guest spending being "way up" when we never knew what it was to begin with.

I would love to see Universal move tens of thousands of people around property, feed four times as many mouths, mow acres and acres of grass, or maintain its own roads while keeping the same margins.

 

[John]

It's impossible to parse it by specific areas, but it isn't the doom and gloom you'd read online. If there actually was a flood of people who left Disney for Universal, they were for the most part replaced by another flood of people who were willing to pay higher prices. I'm struggling to find any evidence that margins took a huge hit beyond the 2010 initial HP crush (which, let's be honest, was a crush back when there were lines to get into the area but just isn't there anymore as evidenced by the lack of waits at FJ or lines for Ollivander). The Universal argument is largely based in speculation, like WDW occupancy being way down (mind you, all those DVC resorts running at 85-90% don't count in that figure) or their guest spending being "way up" when we never knew what it was to begin with.

I would love to see Universal move tens of thousands of people around property, feed four times as many mouths, mow acres and acres of grass, or maintain its own roads while keeping the same margins.

Wouldnt disagree with you, but isnt the fact that WDW does have this infrastructure to maintain and the fact UNI dosnt help UNI? Again, I dont think its about compareing the two parks in anything...ie guest spending/operateing cost. But how much impact UNI is having on WDW's bottom line. You say it is interweb myth.....without hard numbers that even you admit are unobtainable.......we cant know for sure.

 

[Matt7187]

Why does every good thread about an interesting rumor have to lead to a battle between non-realated stuff like money? We should just be happy about the magic kingdom possibly getting a new ride!

 

[NoChesterHester]

Why does every good thread about an interesting rumor have to lead to a battle between non-realated stuff like money? We should just be happy about the magic kingdom possibly getting a new ride!

Welcome to thread drift courtesy of WDW Magic!

But... how is money non-related to getting an attraction green lit?

 

[menamechris]

While I do agree that this is a thread drift from the original topic, I think it speaks volumes that the majority of Disney fans acknowledge and recognize that Disney will not invest significantly in the parks and new attractions unless they absolutely, positively have to. Any debate on whether we will receive a new attraction will naturally come down to Disney vs. Uni, because I believe there is a concern that the only way we will see anything mindblowing is if Disney is pushed beyond choice. Ironically, this encourages most Disney fans cheer for Universal....

 

[MerlinTheGoat]

While I do agree that this is a thread drift from the original topic, I think it speaks volumes that the majority of Disney fans acknowledge and recognize that Disney will not invest significantly in the parks and new attractions unless they absolutely, positively have to. Any debate on whether we will receive a new attraction will naturally come down to Disney vs. Uni, because I believe there is a concern that the only way we will see anything mindblowing is if Disney is pushed beyond choice. Ironically, this encourages most Disney fans cheer for Universal....

Aye. I'm a Disney fan through and through, but i'm going to cheer on Universal here. Reason being that it not only provides extra entertainment for the fans, but incredibly strong competition is always good for the consumer. It tends to drive both sides to create amazing new attractions to combat one another, and as a result the fans on either side win (and they're the ones who should be winning, not corporations who love to take people's money and put no effort into their entertainment).

At one point Disney innovated and built new things just for the sake of it, without worrying about competition (there really didn't used to be any sort of competition to Disney's caliber of theme park prior to Universal). Those days are over sadly, the only time they try to build anything new it's generally a knee jerk reaction to Universal. I'm very glad to hear that Disney apparently has become extremely scared of Universal and considers them a very real threat (even if certain Disney fanboys don't admit it themselves).

Even if you are a Disney fanatic and hate Universal, healthy competition is good for the consumer. That isn't up for debate even if you dislike Universal. It keeps the fire under Disney's feet for when Disney wouldn't do anything new otherwise. The only problem is that Disney needs to go about addressing this competition the right way, and they're not doing that right now (cuts in maintenance, entertainment, ticket price rising, etc). Hopefully they get how to compete wisely sooner rather than later.

 

[Lee]

I noticed you didn't quote any sources for these claims? More people are "opting out" of DME to rent a car? And you know this how? And "can you guess where they're going?" and you know that because? Let me know when you've held a poll of the 50 million people a year who visit WDW and exactly what their plans and itineraries are and then, maybe, you'll be taken seriously. Everything you said was personal, wishful fantasy. Not fact. Fail.

Polls aren't needed.

DME ridership is indeed down.
Disney hotel bookings are down.
The number of days people are buying MYW passes for is down by approximately one day on average.
Guest spending at Disney is down.

Attendance and guest spending is up at Universal.

It is a slight, yet very noticeable (especially in the TDO building) shift.

 

[afar28]

They wouldn't be putting cars land in frontierland would they?

How would that possibly fit in? Unless they make a 3rd Cars Movie Cars of the Wild West...

 

[Darth Sidious]

Polls aren't needed.

DME ridership is indeed down.
Disney hotel bookings are down.
The number of days people are buying MYW passes for is down by approximately one day on average.
Guest spending at Disney is down.

Attendance and guest spending is up at Universal.

It is a slight, yet very noticeable (especially in the TDO building) shift.

Yup, polls aren't needed when it is obvious. Uni is making some good moves and Disney is trying to counter them but it seems with more hedge maneuvers rather than real smart long term investments.

 

[Beholder]

Polls aren't needed.

DME ridership is indeed down.
Disney hotel bookings are down.
The number of days people are buying MYW passes for is down by approximately one day on average.


Guest spending at Disney is down.

Attendance and guest spending is up at Universal.


It is a slight, yet very noticeable (especially in the
TDO building) shift.

And this is really the only thing that will get Disney/TDO to invest and step up the declining maintenance. I admit, I don't help "the cause" when I continue to spend my money at Disney. As long as the numbers remain acceptable, then I'm thinking TDO will not change the way they do business. It's going to take a significant (I'm guessing) shift in tourist habits and dollars spent before Disney will do what the fan community wants.

That or a monster law suit because Br'er Rabbit's house fell on someone.

 

[Captain Chaos]

How would that possibly fit in? Unless they make a 3rd Cars Movie Cars of the Wild West...

Please, don't give them any ideas...

 

[WED Purist]

While I do agree that this is a thread drift from the original topic, I think it speaks volumes that the majority of Disney fans acknowledge and recognize that Disney will not invest significantly in the parks and new attractions unless they absolutely, positively have to. Any debate on whether we will receive a new attraction will naturally come down to Disney vs. Uni, because I believe there is a concern that the only way we will see anything mindblowing is if Disney is pushed beyond choice. Ironically, this encourages most Disney fans cheer for Universal....

The "majority" of Disney fans? Are you speaking of yourself and the others in here who berate Disney to no end? How many people is that, compared to the @50K who come through the turnstiles every day? Majority?

 

[afar28]

Please, don't give them any ideas...

Oh god just thinking of that being made makes me want to bang my head on a keyboard.

 

[menamechris]

The "majority" of Disney fans? Are you speaking of yourself and the others in here who berate Disney to no end? How many people is that, compared to the @50K who come through the turnstiles every day? Majority?

Let me rephrase - the majority of fans who follow the business end and trends of Disney. And also, the vast majority of people who come through Disney turnstiles would not classify themselves as "fans".

 

[WED Purist]

Let me rephrase - the majority of fans who follow the business end and trends of Disney. And also, the vast majority of people who come through Disney turnstiles would not classify themselves as "fans".

What would the 'vast majority' call themselves?

 

[SirLink]

What would the 'vast majority' call themselves?

Tourists? Visitors? Guests? Muggles?

 

[WED Purist]

But not fans of Disney?