John
Well-Known Member
And there you have.....short, sweet and plain English......I wonder if I also have a PO4 virus? Is there a vaccination for such things. It is highly contagious you know. Funny thing....I don't feel sick.
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Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2014 results - Record $48.8 billion revenues
- Thread starter wdwmagic
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And there you have.....short, sweet and plain English......I wonder if I also have a PO4 virus? Is there a vaccination for such things. It is highly contagious you know. Funny thing....I don't feel sick.
ParentsOf4
Well-Known Member
There was a tremendous pent-up demand for the Villas at the Grand Floridian (VGF) when it first opened. Disney sold 426K VGF points in 4Q2013 vs. 288K VGF points in 4Q2014, with 226K points sold in VGF's first full month. That number is about 90K higher than VGF's second best month.
Yes, VGF sales have been a little slow since, but really the biggest source of the decline was simply an amazing sales month in July 2013.
In recent years, Disney usually sells about 100K points per month at WDW resorts it is actively marketing.
VGF should sell out by the spring of 2015.
I expect the Poly to sell much better, unless Disney decides to go with some crazy pricing.
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those lake front villas im guessing will be 140/150 pts a night or so
ParentsOf4
Well-Known Member
Maybe. The lake villas are about 1100 sq ft, roughly the size of a 2-bedroom villa. Putting aside Premier Season (i.e. Easter and Christmas), a BLT Theme Park View Grand Villa (double the size of a 2-bedroom) goes for as high as 170 points-per-night on weekends during summer and spring break.
The speculation right now is the lake villas will cost about the same as Grand Villas.
Having rented Grand Villas at BWV and AKV for about 100 points-per-night during spring break and summer, 150 points-per-night for a 2-bedroom seems crazy. However, I suspect WDW will have no problem keeping those Poly lake villas filled.
I totally forgot about the Poly DVC and have no doubt that it will sell out quickly. Plus, Disney's Moana comes out in 2016. As Disney's first princess from the Pacific Islands -- Disney can easily use Princess Moana to promote the Polynesian DVC & resort. I can envision Princess Moana hosting a new Luau show, a pool party or even replacing Lilo & Stitch at the character breakfast.
Awww, Princess Moana is so cute to me. She literally makes me want to put on a Clarins faux tan and fly to Hawaii just to stay at Aulani & I want some shave ice, too!
I have to tie her with Elsa, that's how much I like her look here. I hope the script for this movie is good. Initially, I liked Merida a lot too, but the movie was so awful and they made her character so obnoxious -- I hope Disney doesn't do that to Princess Moana.
This is such an excellent post and everything makes sense to me now -- all of your posts are written so eloquently. With all of the complaints about Disney, it's truly fascinating how so many people are eager to invest in DVC -- it sends such a strong message, imo.
Awww, Princess Moana is so cute to me. She literally makes me want to put on a Clarins faux tan and fly to Hawaii just to stay at Aulani & I want some shave ice, too!
I have to tie her with Elsa, that's how much I like her look here. I hope the script for this movie is good. Initially, I liked Merida a lot too, but the movie was so awful and they made her character so obnoxious -- I hope Disney doesn't do that to Princess Moana.
This is such an excellent post and everything makes sense to me now -- all of your posts are written so eloquently. With all of the complaints about Disney, it's truly fascinating how so many people are eager to invest in DVC -- it sends such a strong message, imo.
ParentsOf4
Well-Known Member
Today's DVC is all about selling in the timeshare marketplace. In general, timeshares are huge money-losers for consumers yet people keep buying them anyway. It's getting people when they are most vulnerable; relaxed on vacation, in a good mood, with their normal "smart shopper" senses down. They dream of continuing the happiness of that moment and buying into a timeshare feels like a way to keep the magic alive.
In the Orlando area, there's a lot more timeshares outside The World than in.
DVC is one of the few timeshares that hold most of its value. Someone buying at VGF today at $165 can sell tomorrow at $130 (less 10% commission), which is excellent for a timeshare.
One of the DVC memberships I bought was at Boardwalk Villas (BWV). The original owner bought at $65/point in 2000 and sold to me at $55/point on the resale market. Over the course of the years that person was a member, he probably ended up paying less than today's equivalent of $100/night to stay at the Boardwalk, which is a great rate.
Of course, Disney is selling BWV for $130/point right now, making it more difficult for someone buying today to see that same room rate. Today, asking price for BWV is in the low $80s/point on the resale market.
Matt_Black
Well-Known Member
[QUOTE="Siren, post: 6418578, member: 86402 Initially, I liked Merida a lot too, but the movie was so awful and they made her character so obnoxious -- I hope Disney doesn't do that to Princess Moana.[/QUOTE]
I like Merida, but then I have a thing for feisty redheads with a Scottish brogue. See also- Annah from Planescape: Torment
I like Merida, but then I have a thing for feisty redheads with a Scottish brogue. See also- Annah from Planescape: Torment
flynnibus
Premium Member
And folks were calling for the Disney executive heads on a platter not long ago around here.....looks like that won't be happening anytime soon.
My company announced a record year.. and simultaneously announced they were restructuring and laying off 6k people. Those concerned about the company and it's leadership aren't focused on the wall street numbers they can work out.
But since you are so happy with the results.. be sure to smile when they bend you over for another 8% price hike next spring and say "thank you kind sir may I please have another!" while you continue to get less.
Sped2424
Well-Known Member
You do know that's a fan mock up and no way is official of her look in the film.I totally forgot about the Poly DVC and have no doubt that it will sell out quickly. Plus, Disney's Moana comes out in 2016. As Disney's first princess from the Pacific Islands -- Disney can easily use Princess Moana to promote the Polynesian DVC & resort. I can envision Princess Moana hosting a new Luau show, a pool party or even replacing Lilo & Stitch at the character breakfast.
Awww, Princess Moana is so cute to me. She literally makes me want to put on a Clarins faux tan and fly to Hawaii just to stay at Aulani & I want some shave ice, too!
I have to tie her with Elsa, that's how much I like her look here. I hope the script for this movie is good. Initially, I liked Merida a lot too, but the movie was so awful and they made her character so obnoxious -- I hope Disney doesn't do that to Princess Moana.
This is such an excellent post and everything makes sense to me now -- all of your posts are written so eloquently. With all of the complaints about Disney, it's truly fascinating how so many people are eager to invest in DVC -- it sends such a strong message, imo.
I don't mean this in a bad way but ewww, ewww & ewww. I am not one of the "fellas," so I do not speak or engage in any form of "guy speak" or whatever it is you call it. I do not care to know who or what you have a "thing" for, lol. I really don't want to see "Annah from Planescape: Torment" -- whatever in the world that is, I have never heard of it, lol. Seriously, there appears to be no shortage of guys here who are eager to discuss things like that with you. But for me, the ick factor in your post totally makes me cringe. I am a hetero-sexual female and my opinions stem from that perspective -- meaning *strictly* beauty & fashion, nothing more. It really doesn't bother me that you think in that way, because I know that's how guys think but in the future just discuss it with them. LOL.
Wow...that is an amazing deal. You have such a graceful approach in how you present numbers and you make it so easy to understand. I've never seen anything quite like it. I don't want a timeshare though. I like Disney a lot, but it's way too much commitment for me and I don't want to feel compelled to travel.
Now, that I think about it though, that's not necessarily a bad thing. People need a vacation and really all workplaces should require people to take a vacation somewhere every year. If you own a timeshare, you are more likely to get that much needed vacation time in, so it's a good thing.
Ugh... the internet. Thank you for clarifying that -- it was part of a supposed "news" article so I thought it was legit, lol. I still think Princess Moana will be one of my favorites, though. We'll see.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
While I think that Imagineering construction projects take way too long, and go way over-budget due to waste and diva Imagineers running up costs and living a wasteful expense account lifestyle....
To be fair, Universal Studios Hollywood announced in April, 2014 the worst kept secret that their own Orlando-clone of Harry Potter Land opens in 2016. Back in April the construction on that project inside the park was already towering above the Universal Studios Tram Tour loading area and looked like this last April...
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If Disney waited that long into the construction phase to announce a major park addition, we would still be waiting on any official word that Pandora was coming to DAK right now.
Here in SoCal, the theme park wars in 2015 will belong to Disneyland's 60th Anniversary Diamond Celebration. But in 2016, it looks like Universal Studios Hollywood will grab most of the attention with Potterland 2.0 for the West Coast audience. But Universal Studios benefits from an online fan base that is not nearly as rabid, nor as rumor-obsessed, as the Disney parks with their Al Lutz Miceage Updates and Disneyland rumors that sometimes translate to changes coming to the WDW parks.
Matt_Black
Well-Known Member
It's a critically acclaimed video game for PC based on one of the campaign settings created for Advanced Dungeons & Dragons 2nd Edition; Annah is one of the characters, and was voiced by Sheena Easton. The game also features Keith David, Dan Castellaneta, Michael T. Weiss, Rob Paulsen, Jennifer Hale, Mitch Pillegi, John DeLancie, and the late Tony Jay.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Some interesting quotes from the prepared comments on the earnings call:
Not a single question on MyMagic+ or the domestic theme parks. The only mention of MyMagic was very high level (positive contribution to operating income) in the prepared comments and in reference to the question above on Shanghai operating costs expected during ramp up to operations. Picking this apart a little, Jay is basically saying that the gains from MyMagic in 2015 are expected to offset expenses from ramping up Shanghai. He stated that the ramp up costs would be in the range of $300 to $400M. These costs are for things like hiring and training employees that cannot be capitalized. He also stated that these expenses would be heavily backloaded to just before the park opens which makes sense. You could deduce from these statements that they expect at least $300 to $400M in gains from MyMagic in 2015. I'm sure @ParentsOf4 would be quick to point out that the gains are likely coming from a reduction in expense from ramping up MyMagic in 2014 more so than new revenue in 2015.
I actually expected maybe one last ditch effort by some analyst to quantify MyMagic returns, but they were too busy obsessing over advertising revenues for ESPN and ABC. I'm pretty sure that worries about advertising is why the stock dipped too. I don't think we will here much about MyMagic in the coming year's earnings calls. It has now permanently been labeled as "contributing to operating income".
Hotel occupancy appears to again be up while anecdotal evidence posted here suggests the hotels are empty and business is down. I'm sure someone will suggest they are playing with the numbers or lying. I honestly don't know what to make of it.
- The early returns we are seeing from MyMagic+ are encouraging. During the fourth quarter MyMagic+ had a positive contribution to year-over-year increase in the segment’s operating income. We continued to see positive trends in the business with the fourth quarter per capita spending in our domestic parks up 6% on higher ticket prices, food and beverage and merchandise spending. Attendance at our domestic parks was up 4% with Walt Disney World setting a new fourth quarter record.
- Per room spending at our domestic hotels was up 5% and occupancy was up 5 percentage points to 83%. So far this quarter, domestic resort reservations are pacing up 11% compared to prior year levels, while book rates are up 3%. The 11% includes the benefit of the timing of promotional offers. But nevertheless, we feel very good about the volume and pricing trends we are seeing in the business.
- Before I conclude let me proactively address a couple of questions you may have about 2015. We expect total consolidated CapEx in 2015 to be about $1.5 billion higher than in 2014 or up $1.1 billion adjusted for the contribution from our Shanghai partner. The increasing CapEx is primarily due to the ongoing investment in Shanghai Disney Resort.
- Michael Nathanson - MoffettNathanson
Thanks Bob. Let me ask Jay, following on the Shanghai comments, Jay when you look in this fiscal year coming up, what is the impact on Shanghai on the operating expenses on the park side. I know you have been building expenses as you have not opened, but it had operating expenses, so how do you think about that in ’15?
Jay Rasulo - Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Well, Michael you know at the outset, when we announced the building of this park. We said there would be $300 million to $400 million of expenses that were part of that overall spend and that tends to be very back loaded because a lot of those expenses are the hiring, training and pre-opening rehearsals if you will before we start taking in revenue for the park. So they are very back-loaded and we also believe that when we announced the opening date, we will have a better fix on exactly how those numbers will affect fiscal ’15. But you should assume that they will be pretty significant. But the good news is, is that as MyMagic+ ramps up in terms of overall new initiatives, we hope that the benefits from that project will actually offset if you are looking at the segment as a whole, the incremental costs that we are going to take on for Shanghai Disneyland. So, I don’t think on balance, they are going to be a huge driver in your model for park returns for the year.
Well, Michael you know at the outset, when we announced the building of this park. We said there would be $300 million to $400 million of expenses that were part of that overall spend and that tends to be very back loaded because a lot of those expenses are the hiring, training and pre-opening rehearsals if you will before we start taking in revenue for the park. So they are very back-loaded and we also believe that when we announced the opening date, we will have a better fix on exactly how those numbers will affect fiscal ’15. But you should assume that they will be pretty significant. But the good news is, is that as MyMagic+ ramps up in terms of overall new initiatives, we hope that the benefits from that project will actually offset if you are looking at the segment as a whole, the incremental costs that we are going to take on for Shanghai Disneyland. So, I don’t think on balance, they are going to be a huge driver in your model for park returns for the year.
Not a single question on MyMagic+ or the domestic theme parks. The only mention of MyMagic was very high level (positive contribution to operating income) in the prepared comments and in reference to the question above on Shanghai operating costs expected during ramp up to operations. Picking this apart a little, Jay is basically saying that the gains from MyMagic in 2015 are expected to offset expenses from ramping up Shanghai. He stated that the ramp up costs would be in the range of $300 to $400M. These costs are for things like hiring and training employees that cannot be capitalized. He also stated that these expenses would be heavily backloaded to just before the park opens which makes sense. You could deduce from these statements that they expect at least $300 to $400M in gains from MyMagic in 2015. I'm sure @ParentsOf4 would be quick to point out that the gains are likely coming from a reduction in expense from ramping up MyMagic in 2014 more so than new revenue in 2015.
I actually expected maybe one last ditch effort by some analyst to quantify MyMagic returns, but they were too busy obsessing over advertising revenues for ESPN and ABC. I'm pretty sure that worries about advertising is why the stock dipped too. I don't think we will here much about MyMagic in the coming year's earnings calls. It has now permanently been labeled as "contributing to operating income".
Hotel occupancy appears to again be up while anecdotal evidence posted here suggests the hotels are empty and business is down. I'm sure someone will suggest they are playing with the numbers or lying. I honestly don't know what to make of it.
ParentsOf4
Well-Known Member
Higher theme park attendance results in higher hotel occupancy.
The record theme park attendance is being driven by SDMT, Frozen's popularity, and Universal's Diagon Alley.
Families genuinely are interested in seeing the completed New Fantasyland and WDW's various Frozen-related offerings. They demonstrate what WDW has proven in the past; if you build it, they will come.
Meanwhile, Uni is still no more than a 3-day stop for most, meaning they have other vacation days in Orlando. Besides Uni itself, WDW benefits the most from Diagon Alley and, unlike 2010, WDW has new offerings to attract guests in 2014.
The factor limiting WDW hotel occupancy is the room rate. WDW's hotels cost far more than most Orlando tourists are willing to pay, even with discounts. Given everything going on at the Orlando theme parks this summer, an occupancy rate of 83% is weak. In prior years, record attendance would have been accompanied by an occupancy rate above 90% at WDW.
With the right theme park expansion and pricing strategy, Disney should need to build more hotels, not struggle to reach the mid-80s in what was a banner summer.
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GoofGoof
Premium Member
I agree with you. They seem to have taken the approach that they would rather keep resorts less full but keep charging the really high rates. I'm sure someone has a spreadsheet somewhere that shows the optimal mix. How much do they need to cut prices to gain that extra 10% to 15%? Would that actually equal higher profits?
Quick numbers example (I'm making up the numbers as an estimate):
Let's assume that currently WDW has 25,000 cash hotel rooms @ 75% occupancy (taking out the DLR and DVC rooms which are generally much higher than 83%).
- Let's assume the average room (mix of all 3 classes of rooms) has a profit of $250 per night (room rate less variable costs). That's roughly $4.7M profit per night (25,000 X .75 X $250).
- Let's say that discounting the rooms by 30% (resulting in $175 per night profit) will get the cash room occupancy up to 90%. That would result in $3.9M per night in profit (25,000 X .90 X $175). The occupancy would be up, but the profits down...almost $300M in a year
- Now if it only took a 10% cut in room rates then profits per night would be over $5M (25,000 X .90 X $225).
.Before I'm labeled a pixie duster or company apologist, here is where I think the fundamental flaw lies. You can't or shouldn't look at hotel profits in a vacuum. The company runs their business segments in silos. Hotel managers are worried about hotel margins. Park management about park margins and so on. There are some very glaring missed opportunities with having more guests stay off property. People tend to spend less time in the parks and much less on meals and merchandise if they have a car and are staying off property. So while 75% occupancy may be optimal for the hotel division's margins the overall WDW margins would likely be better if the hotel occupancy was closer to 90%. When management has bonus plans based on department metrics it leads to this kind of thinking.