I agree with you. They seem to have taken the approach that they would rather keep resorts less full but keep charging the really high rates. I'm sure someone has a spreadsheet somewhere that shows the optimal mix. How much do they need to cut prices to gain that extra 10% to 15%? Would that actually equal higher profits?
As you nicely describe, hotel profitability is linked to total revenue, which is a multiple of room rate and occupancy rate. However, at a resort such as WDW, there are other important factors to consider.
A typical family of 4 spends more at the theme parks than at the hotel. Getting them to stay onsite, especially without their own transportation, results in tremendous added revenue. Conversely, driving them offsite means not only lost hotel revenue but also lost theme park revenue since consumers have fewer barriers preventing them from spending their Orlando vacation dollars elsewhere.
Has Disney ever dramatically lowered hotel rooms in the past like some people wish they would do now? For some reason, I highly doubt it. People are going to fill those $400+ a night hotel rooms no matter what, even at 50% occupancy I bet they are still raking in easy profits it really makes no sense for Disney to lower those prices.
The issue facing WDW today is that the Orlando theme park market has changed, yet the bloated bureaucracy that Disney has become refuses to acknowledge it.
Prior to 2010, WDW had little difficulty achieving occupancy rates above 90% in good economic times. This was a banner summer in Orlando; both WDW and Uni had record attendance. Offsite and Uni hotels had their best summer ever.
Not WDW hotels.
Disney domestic occupancy came in at 83%. Factor in the 5% of rooms WDW has taken out-of-service along with an occupancy artificially inflated by Disney's timeshares, and WDW's
hotel occupancy rate was
below the average of surrounding hotels.
WWOHP and the renaissance at Universal has changed the landscape yet Disney doesn't want to acknowledge it. WDW's high rack rates are costing Disney revenue, not growing it. It's driving guests offsite, encouraging them to spend elsewhere.
Disney must recognize that it now has legitimate competition in Orlando, and must start acting like a business rather than a monopoly.