Fifth Gate rumor

[speck76]

The theme park business isnt going down. It was been rising every year for like ever. Disney's attendance was an alltime high last year.

Not even close.

Total Disney attendance was at an all-time high, but none of the parks were at their individual all-time highs.....MK is down 2million from 1997.....MGM is down 2-3 million from its highs, Epcot is down at least 2 million...

In Orlando, Universal is down 3-4 million from its highs (pre-IOA) and IOA has never performed to expected attendance levels.

In other markets, Six Flags has been on the verge of bankruptsy for years, and is actually considering closing Magic Mountain to a developer that will tear it down and build HOUSES. Paramount sold its parks due to a lack of profitability, and Cedar Fair has not seen same-store attendance growth since 2000 on a consistant basis...and just announced that it missed its profit goals for the 3rd quarter.

 

[speck76]

That brings up the question then, has WDW hit the pinacle? What is WDW going to do to re-invent itself?

I would not say the park has hit its peak, but perhaps its peak for what we considered it to be in the past 35 years.

I would say there are a few windows of time to look at in history of WDW.

1. 1971-1981: Well-rounded vacation - People came to Orlando for the Magic Kingdom, but spent most of their vacation outside of a Disney park, around the other activities at WDW or around Central Florida.

2. 1981-1988: Well-rounded vacation with theme park focus - People came to Orlando for the Disney parks, but still spents at least 1/2 of their time outside of the theme parks.

3a. 1989-present: Theme park focused vacation with few other activities - People came to Orlando for the theme parks, and did little else besides the theme parks, unless they were visiting DTD or a waterpark. At least 90% of the vacation was spent in a theme park.

3b. 1997-present: Theme park focused vacation "add-on" People came to central florida for other reasons (conventions, cruises...) and added on a few days at a theme park.

4. Future - Orlando will hit 50million tourists this year, yet only 15.5 million will visit the MK (and really not that many considering how many go for 2 days)....Vacations of the future will not neccessarily be as theme park focused for many reasons (cost of tickets, lack of enough new attractions, lack of interest) so Disney will need to focus on emerging markets and trends....but the days of adding the "same rides/different theme" type of park to Orlando have long since gone away.

 

[Hakunamatata]

4. Future - Orlando will hit 50million tourists this year, yet only 15.5 million will visit the MK (and really not that many considering how many go for 2 days)....Vacations of the future will not neccessarily be as theme park focused for many reasons (cost of tickets, lack of enough new attractions, lack of interest) so Disney will need to focus on emerging markets and trends....but the days of adding the "same rides/different theme" type of park to Orlando have long since gone away.

So, the focus may be on more getting more people to visit the general area knowing that a certain % will spend some amount of time on WDW spending money vs trying attract people to an exclusive WDW vacation.

 

[speck76]

So, the focus may be on more getting more people to visit the general area knowing that a certain % will spend some amount of time on WDW spending money vs trying attract people to an exclusive WDW vacation.

Well...that might be over-simplified.....

there will always be "Disney-people" out there.....consider it the "base business" there are probably about 6-7 million admissions to year park, each year, of "Disney people"....they hit all 4 parks, they stay at Disney hotels, they dress their daughters like princesses.....they are "Disney people" (not Disney fans like the members here...don't confuse the two groups)

On top of that base, the parks has regional "weekend" visitors that pop-in to 1 or 2 parks for a short weekend stay. We can call these people the "Disney Pop/All-stars", as they probably stay at the value resorts on Fri/sat nights.....this is probably another 1 million people yearly per park.

On top of that, the park has the local "special event" visitors that visit F&W, F&G, MNSSHP, MVMCP....things of that nature...live locally, or within a few hour drive.....I cna not put a number on this, but it is not a ton of people.

the final large group is the conventioneers that rent out sections of the park, or have after-hours parties.....this is a small group, but large in revenue.

So...that leave a few million people each year that Disney has to market to.....these are people that might come to Orlando, or go on a cruise, or visit Europe, or take a ski vacation....this is where Disney in the future needs to appeal....they only need to "maintain" the other groups of people, but grow this group.

 

[goofntink]

Cannot....resist...urge......must.....kill...this..............thread.AAaaaauugggghhh:fork: :fork: :fork:

 

[PintoColvig]

4. Future - Orlando will hit 50million tourists this year, yet only 15.5 million will visit the MK...

Let me get this straight. Are you saying that 50 million people will visit one of America's most dangerous cities? :hammer:

 

[hokielutz]

OK everyone... it seems that we have true market prognosticator here on the boards. Remember to heed speck's advice and pull your money out of entertainment in the coming months so you won't get hit when the stock prices of the entertainment industry go down for reduced attendance.

 

[PhilharMagician]

Let me get this straight. Are you saying that 50 million people will visit one of America's most dangerous cities? :hammer:

Yes and out of theat 50 million only 15 million will go to MK?

Last year WDW hosted more then 40 million guests. Those are pretty decent numbers.

 

[theadmiral459]

you know reading through this thread and being here all 34 years of my life i definently seen a lot of changes and talking about the the crime rate here in orlando well we can talk about this for the next three months on how the crime rate has gone up but save that for another thread . Now not going to argue about your stats there on the park attendance it's just that it hard to believe that everytime we been to disney and thats been quite a bit that most of the attraction has lines 45 minutes plus and not to long ago being in mk you couldn't hardly move it was that busy just hard to believe that attendance it that bad..

Admiral

 

[PintoColvig]

you know reading through this thread and being here all 34 years of my life i definently seen a lot of changes and talking about the the crime rate here in orlando well we can talk about this for the next three months on how the crime rate has gone up but save that for another thread . Now not going to argue about your stats there on the park attendance it's just that it hard to believe that everytime we been to disney and thats been quite a bit that most of the attraction has lines 45 minutes plus and not to long ago being in mk you couldn't hardly move it was that busy just hard to believe that attendance it that bad..

Admiral

Hey! Welcome to the forums! :wave:


Attendance is NOT that bad. It's quite good, in fact. While it's true that some regional theme parks and the other Orlando parks are struggling, it's not true for Disney. They are becoming more deft at cornering the marketshare. Sure there may have been years with better attendance than now but there is a definite turnaround happening. Disney has also created a pretty good return market through DVC. People who once would have come every few years or so are now coming back year after year. That they continue to expand DVC is a testimony to its success.

 

[bhickman]

So I'm thinking the 5th Gate would enter into this amazing place called "Disney’s Casino World"

DCW would be the host site for such exciting attractions as:

- Mickey’s “Wacky Slots”…
- Alice’s “Wonderland Blackjack”
- Texas Hold’em (Country Bear Style)
- Winning with Pooh (a magical version of craps)
- Donald’s “Deal or No Deal” - Scrooge McDuck would be the banker in

- Meet and Greets with signings by such characters as Steve Wynn, Donald Trump, etc…

- Shopping.. Oh the Shopping!!!
There would be a huge shopping complex (oops.. WDW already is)

- Let’s not forget the Darling Family!!
Mom & Dad, Concierge service would be provided if you would like to have their DS & DD escorted around the other parks, be sure to book early!!

And Oh yea.. while the rumor is stirring up, lats make this a monorail park. Except these monorails could look like strech hummers and escalades..

Watch out Vegas… we have DVC!!!

Hey it could happen... :hammer:

 

[goofyfan13]

Hey! Welcome to the forums! :wave:


Attendance is NOT that bad. It's quite good, in fact.

This is very true, I remember when I first started school down here and bought a seasonal pass. Going in September even on a Saturday was awesome because there was literally no one in the park. Wait times were 5 minutes at the most. Now, this past September and into October, there was never a Saturday that was dead when I was there. Wasn't packed to the hills, but the parks were decently busy.

 

[speck76]

Let me get this straight. Are you saying that 50 million people will visit one of America's most dangerous cities? :hammer:

can you believe it?

 

[speck76]

Yes and out of theat 50 million only 15 million will go to MK?

Last year WDW hosted more then 40 million guests. Those are pretty decent numbers.

no

last year WDW had more that 40 million admissions...... 10 million people visiting each park would take care of that

 

[speck76]

OK everyone... it seems that we have true market prognosticator here on the boards. Remember to heed speck's advice and pull your money out of entertainment in the coming months so you won't get hit when the stock prices of the entertainment industry go down for reduced attendance.

I am not sure how you missed my point by so much, but you managed to do that....so....CONGRATS!

 

[bjlc57]

Unfortunately if Orlando wants to be a big town then a higher crime rate is going to have to be part of the growing process. Also Disney is not Orlando!!!!! They aren't even located in Orlando....they are in Lake Buena Vista which is a separate area.

Look I hate the fact that Orlando's crime rate is getting higher and higher. I have lived here for 15 years and I see wonderful things about this town and I see bad things about this town....but I don't leave because I like it here. To give an example of the crime not being all over is that I used to work a part-time job at Prime Outlet Mall (formerly Belz) and we had to be walked to our cars every night because of the gang activity in the area...which is north International Drive. If you go to the south end of I-Drive you see very little if any crime activity at all. It all depends on the area of the town...sad to say but very true!!!!!

It's not Disney's responsibility to speak up and say anything but I would agree that they maybe should ask how they can help if at all. I listen to a radio station here in town and they do a Kicks for Guns program where people get a new pair of tennis shoes for every gun turned in. NO questions asked and the gun must be given to an Orlando Police Officer. They usually get 75-100 guns at a time and while it's not a permanent solution atleast it is a start. Props to the Monsters in the Morning 104.1!!!!!!

Sorry but Disney, in the long term contributed to the growing of Orlando.. and THEY need to voice a concern that if WDW loses tourism because of the danger to its potential clientel... for years, you wouldn't have thought to go to New York City would you? Nor would you go to Detroit today.. Why? because you don't want to get shot.. or hurt..or robbed.. well guess what, Orlando is well over New York City right now.. and its getting worse..

We had a person get shot right outside our hotel two trips ago.. and it was the last time that we stayed in that area.. BUT PRIOR TO THAT, The Holiday mall area was a great place to stay.. it had new hotels and was expanding.. the mall was there and we stopped at Best Buy and bought Disney CD's .. We had been staying there since BEFORE UNIVERSAL was built.. or at least completed the first time we stayed there... But suddenly when a man is killed right outside your building, its time to say.. Hey, lets stay else where.. or when you drive down the street and see the scum sites of Adult dancing and other "toy stores" ... well its time to say maybe we need to look else where..

Let me say that We personally booked a Newspaper reporter in the room were we stayed so that he could cover a Wisconsinite flying in the space shuttle.. and at one time the Hotel that we stayed at had 4 people take reservations all the time.. just on the 800 number.. and this guy wrote how great the lodgeing was.. What would this guy say now? No I am sorry but Disney gets rewards from Orlando, they must also say something to the affect that the Crime must stop... if not.. why not build in Detroit?

 

[speck76]

If people would pull their heads out of their , they would see that although crime is up in Orlando.....the total homicide count is only around 40 YTD. The problem is not that 40 is high....it is not.....the problem is that Orlando as a city has a small population (only about 180K) so "per capita" the crime is high. If Orlando and Orange county joined together, not only would Orlando have about 1 million people, but the total murder count would only be about 85 YTD....which would instantly make Orlando one of the safest cities in the country.

(BTW....the homicides have occured in 1 main area SW of downtown, which is not even close to the tourist area)

 

[PintoColvig]

Let me get this straight. Are you saying that 50 million people will visit one of America's most dangerous cities? :hammer:

can you believe it?

Hey man, my post was meant to be a sarcastic response to those complaining about how dangerous O-town is; not a slam on you. Sorry if it came off that way. :wave:

 

[speck76]

What Florida has is a public relations problem.....first it was shark attacks, then hurricanes, now crime (crime throughout Florida is up significantly)

Perhaps if the criminals would exclusively kill members of the mass media, then hurricanes would blow their corpses into the ocean, where sharks could then eat them, all of our problems would be solved.

:lookaroun

 

[Main Street USA]

This whole crime rate thing is the biggest bag of _____ I have ever heard of in my life. It makes no difference where you rank on the "crime list." I frequent the St. Louis area, and they recently came in at NUMBER 1. Yet, it is perfectly safe to walk around in the downtown area.

Also, the "crime rate" for Orlando HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH CRIME IN ANY OF THE SURROUNDING SUBURBS. Let's stop confusing Orlando with every other smaller city that surrounds it. Especially places like Lake Buena Vista, that are nealry 30 MILES FROM ORLANDO.

Geez, has anyone here ever seen a map?