FastPass+ Most Certainly Not Coming Back As It Was

[LuvtheGoof]

Yeah…I just got the DVC email and it was hard to decipher…

took 10 seconds. They’re telling their timeshare guests…who aren’t into lines and generally aren’t into higher prices year over years…that they don’t HAVE to Pay for fast passes and suggesting a workaround

that is the best indication yet for me that this is happening.

not only that…it came today - july 8th…
And when did it hit travel media and Twitter?

The email I received yesterday said nothing about paying for fastpasses. It only talked about the morning and evening extra time in the parks. Wasn't hard to decipher at all. Did you get a different email?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The email I received yesterday said nothing about paying for fastpasses. It only talked about the morning and evening extra time in the parks. Wasn't hard to decipher at all. Did you get a different email?

Would it matter if I tried to explain how it looks?

no…it wouldn’t. You’re right. No paid fastpasses…and they “value” their deluxe guests so much (fear they won’t book their 18th stay at poly) that they will keep the park open for them and incur overhead with no ulterior.

coincidence…nothing more.

let’s let it play. I’m not arguing this one. Just an opinion.

 

[pax_65]

The best way to send Disney a message? Don’t go.

My wife and I are planning a long weekend trip, and as of now we are not buying park passes unless they make APs available again. We plan to just hang out by the pool, walk around Disney Springs, check out the Riviera Resort which we haven't seen, and have some nice dinners at resorts on property. We love the parks but I'm not excited about paying hundreds of dollars so we can walk around the parks for a few days. I would do the same thing anytime I don't feel I'm getting good value from the parks - including if I can't get on attractions because of a lack of FP or really long lines.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

My wife and I are planning a long weekend trip, and as of now we are not buying park passes unless they make APs available again. We plan to just hang out by the pool, walk around Disney Springs, check out the Riviera Resort which we haven't seen, and have some nice dinners at resorts on property. We love the parks but I'm not excited about paying hundreds of dollars so we can walk around the parks for a few days. I would do the same thing anytime I don't feel I'm getting good value from the parks - including if I can't get on attractions because of a lack of FP or really long lines.

But you’re still going. As long as the “planning a trip but…” is in place, they have the leverage.

I want APs too…I think I will get them…but my interact with guest comm doesn’t give me any illusions. They know exactly what l’m thinking/saying and they know exactly what I’ll do…statistically. The only way i were to Become “dominant” in this (same as you)…would be to disappear for about 2 years and take 2 million of my closest Friends with me.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

Would it matter if I tried to explain how it looks?

no…it wouldn’t. You’re right. No paid fastpasses…and they “value” their deluxe guests so much (fear they won’t book their 18th stay at poly) that they will keep the park open for them and incur overhead with no ulterior.

coincidence…nothing more.

let’s let it play. I’m not arguing this one. Just an opinion.

So you're reading between the lines, so to speak, thinking that DVC is sending this out to tell us that we can avoid paying for FP Deluxe by going early and staying later in a park? Really??? You're going there with this? That really is some kind of tin foil hat you are wearing for this one. I understand this is your opinion, but you really need to understand that sometimes, an email is just an email and not some sort of sinister attempt to trick us.

 

[kong1802]

Well, again, not really. I didn't compare this date to the last. I noted that FoP had a very long wait yesterday, almost 2 hours (actually the average wait time for the day ended up being 125 minutes, over 2 hours). It was you who decided to compare date-to-date, which is completely meaningless because there are so many variables.

Regarding rides/shows, there was one more ride/show in 2019 (Nemo) than there is today. That'll have a small impact but not really.

Again, the crowd at AK yesterday was only a level 5, and only the second level 5 since the parks reopened in July of last year. So it's really one data point and we'll need more data before we can form a trend. But it falls in the range of historical CL 5 days, albeit on the lower end of that range. Because trends are far more important than single day comparisons, I decided to look at other CL5 days that TouringPlans had cataloged.

From Jan 1, 2019 through March of 2020 when COVID closed the parks, there were 50 days with a CL5. The average wait time for FoP for those days was 139.88 minutes, a full 18 minutes higher than yesterday's average. That does seem like a lot, but one must dig into the data more to understand it in context.

For one, yesterday's date does not fall outside the range of daily wait times from 2019/early 2020. On CL5 days, the wait times ranged from 117 minutes to 168 minutes. Of the 50 CL5 days, there were 7 other days that had lower wait times for FoP than yesterday. So that shows that, while on the lower end, yesterday's number was not so low that it was appreciably less than what you would have seen before 2019. In fact, it was 13th percentile of the dataset.

The trouble is that this is one data point compared against a sizeable dataset. To make a real comparison, we will have to wait for more CL5 days and do a proper comparison. Given that Disney is now expanding capacity, I hope to do that soon. I suspect the average post-Covid will fall in the low 130s, but we'll see.

There were a lot more than just Nemo....

But like I said, there is so much to go through its just safe to say that the wait was shorter without FP.

 

[G00fyDad]

There were a lot more than just Nemo....

But like I said, there is so much to go through its just safe to say that the wait was shorter without FP.

I'm sure it seemed that way.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So you're reading between the lines, so to speak, thinking that DVC is sending this out to tell us that we can avoid paying for FP Deluxe by going early and staying later in a park? Really??? You're going there with this? That really is some kind of tin foil hat you are wearing for this one. I understand this is your opinion, but you really need to understand that sometimes, an email is just an email and not some sort of sinister attempt to trick us.

So laying the groundwork for what will not be a popular program specifically with a segment that comes the most…and will have the strongest opinion (other than locals but they don’t have as much money) is “tin foil”?

I bet if you went to the Reynolds wrap factory…you’d find chapek there right now.

but again…let’s see it play. I’m not scared to put my analysis to the test. Win lots/lose some.

 

[kong1802]

I'm sure it seemed that way.

I mean, 105 is less than 210.

So I hope so....

 

[LuvtheGoof]

But you’re still going. As long as the “planning a trip but…” is in place, they have the leverage.

I want APs too…I think I will get them…but my interact with guest comm doesn’t give me any illusions. They know exactly what l’m thinking/saying and they know exactly what I’ll do…statistically. The only way i were to Become “dominant” in this (same as you)…would be to disappear for about 2 years and take 2 million of my closest Friends with me.

We already have 2 trips planned. The next one has a few resort days on each end of a cruise, and will be a resort only trip. The next one is our normal 9 day trip. If they offer APs before our first trip, we will definitely buy them, but simply not activate them until the second trip. We might even buy multiple APs for us to leverage against the inevitable price increases. I remember that last ones we bought were good until like 2030, so we'd have plenty of time to use them.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well, again, not really. I didn't compare this date to the last. I noted that FoP had a very long wait yesterday, almost 2 hours (actually the average wait time for the day ended up being 125 minutes, over 2 hours). It was you who decided to compare date-to-date, which is completely meaningless because there are so many variables.

Regarding rides/shows, there was one more ride/show in 2019 (Nemo) than there is today. That'll have a small impact but not really.

Again, the crowd at AK yesterday was only a level 5, and only the second level 5 since the parks reopened in July of last year. So it's really one data point and we'll need more data before we can form a trend. But it falls in the range of historical CL 5 days, albeit on the lower end of that range. Because trends are far more important than single day comparisons, I decided to look at other CL5 days that TouringPlans had cataloged.

From Jan 1, 2019 through March of 2020 when COVID closed the parks, there were 50 days with a CL5. The average wait time for FoP for those days was 139.88 minutes, a full 18 minutes higher than yesterday's average. That does seem like a lot, but one must dig into the data more to understand it in context.

For one, yesterday's date does not fall outside the range of daily wait times from 2019/early 2020. On CL5 days, the wait times ranged from 117 minutes to 168 minutes. Of the 50 CL5 days, there were 7 other days that had lower wait times for FoP than yesterday. So that shows that, while on the lower end, yesterday's number was not so low that it was appreciably less than what you would have seen before 2019. In fact, it was 13th percentile of the dataset.

The trouble is that this is one data point compared against a sizeable dataset. To make a real comparison, we will have to wait for more CL5 days and do a proper comparison. Given that Disney is now expanding capacity, I hope to do that soon. I suspect the average post-Covid will fall in the low 130s, but we'll see.

The problem here is that every single person has a MANDATORY 120 minute wait…when during fastpass less than half (guess…could be much higher) did.

that is not a curve you can sustain if you’re not full open yet.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We already have 2 trips planned. The next one has a few resort days on each end of a cruise, and will be a resort only trip. The next one is our normal 9 day trip. If they offer APs before our first trip, we will definitely buy them, but simply not activate them until the second trip. We might even buy multiple APs for us to leverage against the inevitable price increases. I remember that last ones we bought were good until like 2030, so we'd have plenty of time to use them.

The question is if they cancel annual passes…or say they can’t have them “for the 50th”…then what would you change/cancel?

A tangent…but with the park reservations…they really have no reason not to sell them. They could cap sales if they don’t want to flood…and it’s just extra gravy.

so let’s see how that plays too?

 

[LuvtheGoof]

So laying the groundwork for what will not be a popular program specifically with a segment that comes the most…and will have the strongest opinion (other than locals but they don’t have as much money) is “tin foil”?

I bet if you went to the Reynolds wrap factory…you’d find chapek there right now.

but again…let’s see it play. I’m not scared to put my analysis to the test. Win lots/lose some.

I guess we will have to disagree on the "laying the groundwork" part, though I completely agree with you that the new paid FP crap will be unpopular with us DVC members. I cannot see us ever paying $10/person to ride something - ever. As long as we can still be there at rope drop and get a few attractions in, we will be ok with that, as that is how we vacation now. If they make it to where we won't get to ride anything without paying for it, well, that's a different scenario that we will just have to wait and see how that plays out.

 

[Jeff4272]

I guess we will have to disagree on the "laying the groundwork" part, though I completely agree with you that the new paid FP crap will be unpopular with us DVC members. I cannot see us ever paying $10/person to ride something - ever. As long as we can still be there at rope drop and get a few attractions in, we will be ok with that, as that is how we vacation now. If they make it to where we won't get to ride anything without paying for it, well, that's a different scenario that we will just have to wait and see how that plays out.

I am not being naïve and know it's very possible but I find it hard to believe that the DLP version will be coming to WDW.........WDW is way different than DLP and is also very different than DL...........Seems to me the hotel aspect changes a lot of things and WDW will have their own stand alone system, not the same as DLP and/or DL.........I'm not saying you wont have to pay, but i do think there has to be some free version in some capacity offered to hotel guests, even if its tiered

 

[LuvtheGoof]

The question is if they cancel annual passes…or say they can’t have them “for the 50th”…then what would you change/cancel?

A tangent…but with the park reservations…they really have no reason not to sell them. They could cap sales if they don’t want to flood…and it’s just extra gravy.

so let’s see how that plays too?

Well, we wouldn't cancel the first trip, as we aren't going to the parks at all. For the second trip, we might look at trying for DL at VGC for it at 7 months (we've gotten that before), or if not, then we would buy the military appreciation tickets for that trip. We don't go to the parks every day regardless.

True, we are hoping that the APs come back, but if not, then we will deal with it. Unlike a lot of people, we have other options that don't require us to pay full price for tickets.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

I am not being naïve and know it's very possible but I find it hard to believe that the DLP version will be coming to WDW.........WDW is way different than DLP and is also very different than DL...........Seems to me the hotel aspect changes a lot of things and WDW will have their own stand alone system, not the same as DLP and/or DL.........I'm not saying you wont have to pay, but i do think there has to be some free version in some capacity offered to hotel guests, even if its tiered

I tend to agree that there will be a small free version for on-site resort guests, to limit the fallout from having to pay for every ride.

 

[Parker in NYC]

No, I don't think someone operating the popcorn cart should make $30 an hour. Was that proposed?

And I don't think Disney should be charging $18.00 for a broken water ride (among others). But we all make choices!

 

[G00fyDad]

I tend to agree that there will be a small free version for on-site resort guests, to limit the fallout from having to pay for every ride.

I hope so too. I really do. And I can promise you that if that happens Disney is going to sell out the resort rooms. If they make people pay through the nose for whatever version of FP they come up with but give an initial free option to those staying in their resort rooms then people are going to be tripping over themselves to book the rooms.

 

[mikejs78]

There were a lot more than just Nemo....

Such as...?

I mean, 105 is less than 210.

So I hope so....

I mean, yes, but that was a day that had a 9 crowd level. Let's see what happens when AK gets back to a level 9 crowd level today.

The problem here is that every single person has a MANDATORY 120 minute wait…when during fastpass less than half (guess…could be much higher) did.

that is not a curve you can sustain if you’re not full open yet.

100% agree with this. Supposedly the number was 80% of people who went through the FP line and 20% through the standby.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

100% agree with this. Supposedly the number was 80% of people who went through the FP line and 20% through the standby.

I would agree with that based on simple experience/observation

Anything built 2010-current in demand - Flight of passage, mine train and dinky - had that ratio without breaking a sweat