The difference between APs and this is that Disney and Passholders were basically in alignment. Passholders wanted to pay to be in the park a lot, Disney wants them to pay and be in the park a lot. Just not large numbers of them showing up on the busiest days. But many Passholders don’t want to be there on those days either.
With this, I think guest desires and Disney’s desires are diametrically opposed. Guests want to ride their favorites, multiple times, at the perfect time, without waits. Disney wants guests to only ride things once, no-rerides so that more individual guests can ride. Disney wants to distribute guests to areas and times that are underutilized. Guests don’t want to be redistributed to something they don’t like or times that are inconvenient.
There are a lot more friction points. And the underlying problem, if your park has 40,000 visitors a day, and 25,000 would consider not being able to ride the premier attraction that day as a disaster, but your premier attraction only can seat 15,000...
Anyway predictions... this Friday or next Friday announcement for new bookings available starting September 1st. 30 days in advance of the 50th events.
Similar to Paris and Shanghai, but with higher price points and more attractions subject to standby queues. Mostly “day of” but people can buy early access. Resort Guests will get a good discount discount on the early access fee. And only minimally or not at all for the cost of the line skips.
Maybe one free wish, but from a limited list, not RoTR, SDMT, FOP, Ratatouille (originally). Disney can’t have everyone picking the same thing. Maybe a lottery, where you give 3 options and you get 1. And it’s unwrapped like a present on the app.
Times for shows will be free, reservable.
Disney will not have a good read on where the demand / pressure points in the system are. Or how many people will participate at certain price points. But we all will think they should have been completely obvious. Disney will have too much faith that X will happen, and completely miss that guests will do Y instead. Despite being caught flat-footed in some way Disney will declare it a complete success.