FastPass+ Most Certainly Not Coming Back As It Was

[Waters Back Side]

I understand both sides of the argument. They are not wrong in certain ways.

WDW during certain times of the year (pre covid) offered the dining plan for free as an incentive during slower times to get people to come to WDW. The same dining plan is offered at a premium price during the busiest times of the year and people still have trouble making reservations for popular restaurants. In this example, they can prove that people will still pay for things that at certain times they did not have to.

But when you are talking about rides I put that at a different level. You can remove half the restaurants in WDW and people will still flock to the property. Do that with the rides. That's the reason people buy theme park tickets. They don't book hotel only reservations. They don't come to Disney ONLY to eat at the restaurants. Those experiences compliment the main reasons to be there.

 

[Jeff4272]

Example of something not physically possible...but people see enough to believe and buy in because because the payout looks so good.

Or take the perpetual motion machine if you like...

They all share the same thing... details that are buried or glossed over to make the pitch.. and when analyzed as a whole.. the proposition fails.

FP is not 'free energy' - and certainly not FP+. Everyone doesn't wait less and ride more. Individuals just accept the 'gains' they get with their FPs they actually were allowed to get.. and are happy with that. All the other data points they throw away or just dismiss at the end as 'not my problem'.

*Onelove8187.............

What he means are, there are 2 VERY adamant sides of FP+

1) First side (his and almost all others here in this forum, mostly local AP holders) have read studies that FP+ causes too much back up in the Stand by lines to negate the positive effect of skipping the lines for rides

2) Other side (Mine and by the sounds of it likely yours) know that if you can get the top, longest wait rides at the 60 day window and skip these really long lines, there's no way in cold fusion that the longer time we have to wait in the other rides in stand by takes up the amount of time you saved on the really long lines


The problem lies in the fact that most people who support his theory are local AP holders who cannot get FOP, SDD, ToT, RNR, TT, Soarin, etc. at the 30 day mark since all those are taken up by resort guests at the 60 day mark and they have to wait a VERY long time while the resort guests dont......


**EDIT**

There was a hack that local AP holders would use........They would book a Disney hotel outside of the 60 day window, book their 3 FP's, then once it got to the 30 day window, cancel the hotel and keep the FP's........Unfortunately for them, Disney caught onto this and when you cancelled your hotel, all FP bookings cancelled with it..............I'm willing to bet a dole whip Flynnibus and Sirwalter did that more than once!

 

[MrPromey]

Now that’s actually interesting, I think e studios has some great stuff going on!

Besides Rise and, depending on who you talk to MMRR, it's all the same great stuff that's been going on for more than a decade and because Rise is capacity limited, I'd imagine most people give up if they realize they aren't going to be able to get a boarding pass at the crack of dawn so it's probably not having the boost to attendance that one might expect, especially with most reports on the land itself coming back as kind of meh on being good for anything but picture-taking.

What Hollywood Studios has (mostly) isn't bad and (mostly) isn't outdated but it still needs more (which is harder to pull off in that park than the other three though they do have some space) and still in the family-friendly department if Disney is trying to get that number to climb but I'm not sure they really are.

 

[Jeff4272]

*Onelove8187.............

What he means are, there are 2 VERY adamant sides of FP+

1) First side (his and almost all others here in this forum, mostly local AP holders) have read studies that FP+ causes too much back up in the Stand by lines to negate the positive effect of skipping the lines for rides

2) Other side (Mine and by the sounds of it likely yours) know that if you can get the top, longest wait rides at the 60 day window and skip these really long lines, there's no way in cold fusion that the longer time we have to wait in the other rides in stand by takes up the amount of time you saved on the really long lines


The problem lies in the fact that most people who support his theory are local AP holders who cannot get FOP, SDD, ToT, RNR, TT, Soarin, etc. at the 30 day mark since all those are taken up by resort guests at the 60 day mark and they have to wait a VERY long time while the resort guests dont......


**EDIT**

There was a hack that local AP holders would use........They would book a Disney hotel outside of the 60 day window, book their 3 FP's, then once it got to the 30 day window, cancel the hotel and keep the FP's........Unfortunately for them, Disney caught onto this and when you cancelled your hotel, all FP bookings cancelled with it..............I'm willing to bet a dole whip Flynnibus and Sirwalter did that more than once!

Heck, It might be worth it if you still get 3 FP in a value going forward to book the cheapest value, get the 3 FP for free even if you dont use the room............Will prob be cheaper than paying for 3 FP per day per person

 

[MrPromey]

You make your decision literally in the heat of the moment. You're hot. You're sweaty. You're tired. The thought of waiting in line for an hour makes you miserable. For only $10 (or $20) per person, Disney can send a little magic your way. You just spent $5000. What's another $40 (or $80) more?

It's kind of like how I got suckered into an optional "sports fin" on my last SUV that had to be brought down from another dealership.

They found my exact pick in the right color 90 miles away and just had to get it delivered. When it got here, it had that and another $300 in useless accessories I'd have never asked for (and never did use) increasing the total before tax by about $700 but in the heat of the moment, when they tell you it's already been delivered and you're paying tens of thousands of dollars, what's another $700, right?

Of course, who's to say any of that crap was actually installed on/in the car when it arrived at my local dealership, too, right?

Point is, I did buy the car because walking away or trying to haggle more at that point just wasn't worth the energy but I felt cheated that day and still do years later. They got my sale but they never got any maintenance work (I didn't even take it back to that location for warranty or recall work to be sure they wouldn't see another dime come to them from that vehicle, even if it was from the factory) and there is not a snowman's chance in h*ll I'll ever go back there for another vehicle.

The one upside is that I'm apparently one of the only fools with a sports fin on the back roof of their SUV so my car is always easy to identify in a parking lot which has been helpful since the model and color are kind of common.

 

[TinyTGO]

I didn't read all 250 pages of this thread so these points may have been discussed.

I don't think that the FP+ system was designed altruistically to create a better experience for the guest.

I think it was created as a means of crowd control... If a main attraction breaks down in Frontierland, they can release FPs in Tomorrowland, or they can sprinkle FPs throughout the day around the park to keep the crowd circulating through different shops and dining.

Also it keeps the guests shopping and eating and not in line. A guest waiting 1 hour in line for an attraction is a guest that could have bought 4 ice creams, 2 drinks, and maybe a couple souvenirs and t-shirts

vs.

a guest who is irritable because his hotel room costs $500 and his park tickets for the day were another $550 (fam of 4), it's 94F and 90% humidity, one kid is crying, the other has to go to the bathroom, and he's sitting in line for estimated 90 mins for a 2 min ride. This guest will be itching to leave by the end of the day and not spending money on food and merch.

imo, food and merch revenues will suffer greater than revenues generated by premium FPs.

it's possible they introduce a hybrid where only the prime attractions have premium FP availability (mine train, FOP, etc), but this is already kind of in place with VIP Tours.

I would think that if Disney wanted to generate more revenue in a serious way they could start charging for fireworks.

 

[MrPromey]

The only way i were to Become “dominant” in this (same as you)…would be to disappear for about 2 years and take 2 million of my closest Friends with me.

And it's that second part that's the real problem, here.

They have to screw up big time to get that many guests to react, all at once in a single time-frame where it can be noticed and attributed to a single cause to get them to respond... and even then it might be in free Mickey Bars which for some, is all it'll take to get them to cave.

 

[Jedijax719]

Im not here to debate your logic, i get your point....they make money charging for something they didnt before


but if every person paid to skip the line in your scenario, then you wouldn't save any time because the lines would be the same as if nobody paid and you shouldn't be paying for it

Well, not everyone would pay even $5. Only a relatively small amount even used FP at all when it was free. If that wasn't the case, then the FP lines would be the same as the stand-by lines. But, then again, it's not going to be only $5. Maybe something more like $20. And they might charge more for the more demanded rides like Splash Mountain and Tower of Terror. And, unfortunately, they will probably charge more for peak times. But they can't charge TOO much because it was once free. That is where the zinger is. Parks that have always charged can continue. Places that offered it for free will have to be careful.

Now, something they can do is charge, say, $20 for individual FP tickets and then charge, say, $45 or $50 for a package of 3. Make the average cost of a ticket in a package cheaper than a ticket by itself and it seems like a bargain ($50 for a package of 3 would average $16.67 per ticket). It makes the more expensive package seem like a better deal.

 

[MrPromey]

I'm sure it seemed that way.

A better way to word their post would be that many waits were shorter before fastpass (FP+ in particular) which is true.

But is FP+ by itself in isolation, the cause of the upswings or is it one of a number of factors that have put us in the boat we're in today?

My vote goes to the latter.

 

[MrPromey]

I hope so too. I really do. And I can promise you that if that happens Disney is going to sell out the resort rooms. If they make people pay through the nose for whatever version of FP they come up with but give an initial free option to those staying in their resort rooms then people are going to be tripping over themselves to book the rooms.

It's been working for Universal, so far although their "benefit" being offered is way better than what Disney can pull off with their ratio of rooms/attractions.

 

[MrPromey]

If I somehow could do what I want…I would buy on the gulf and travel to Orlando as I pleased.

I wouldn’t want to be cooking in my kitchen and point over my shoulder and say “magic kingdom is over there”

what would be unique about it then?

Problem with that is I4 (and 275, dpending on where you're at) - spent many an hour stuck in traffic not moving because of an accident on the other side of the highway or because a highway patrol has someone pulled over off the shoulder of the road or... for no apparent reason at all when traffic suddenly at one point will start to move again without any evidence of the original problem.

Most recently, it was a military caravan (probably from MacDill Airforce Base) that had three lanes closed on 275 because the front windshield of some armored vehicle - I don't know what but it looked like a semi-truck with trailer had got it on with a hummer and this was the offspring - had shattered and well, I guess they felt they needed to block off 3 lanes to deal with that because they were secretly transporting aliens or something.

Point is, an hour and fifteen minute drive can quickly turn into 3 or 5 hours on a bad day. Not always but often enough to drive you nuts.

 

[MrPromey]

What does that have to do with what I said when reading the entire conversation?

I think his point is, what you pay and what they pay aren't related like a pull string but more like a rubber band.

Could increasing employee wages increase guest costs? Yes. Does it have to, no?

Especially when Disney can go around finding millions of dollars under the couch cushions by potentially rolling out something here like they are in DLP...

But none of that matters because the only thing as inevibile as price increase at Disney are death and taxes... we just hope death catches us before those price increase get to be too much.

 

[hopemax]

They are wrong.

Because you won't? Going back to the continual FOP example.

FP+ equaled 15 minute waits for some and 210 minute waits for others
No FP equals 125 minute waits for everyone.

We can actually break people down into 4 groups. I'm going to assume that people have a range on which waits are "reasonable and expected." I'm going to suggest on a busy (but not holiday) day it's : 60 minutes E-tickets, 45 minutes D-tickets, 30 minutes C-tickets, 15-20 minutes - everything else. So what happens when that level can't be achieved?

Group 1: People unwilling to wait 60 minutes
Group 2: People willing to wait 60 minutes, but unwilling to wait 125 minutes
Group 3: People willing to wait 125 minutes but not 210 minutes
Group 4: People willing to wait 210 minutes

You and those other guys are in one of the first 2 groups. And without FP, you will take your ball and go home. But there are a bunch of people in group 3 that were cheesed off because they were forced into skipping an experience, because while they were willing to put up with crazy they were not willing to put up with insanity. Their experience improves because they went from a non-rider to a rider. And you've improved the experience of those waiting 210 minutes too.

There are only 14,000ish seats for FOP, in a park that averages 38,000 guests per day. There is no system that can satisfy all the people that want to ride FOP on a given day. Someone doesn't end up with a seat in musical chairs. So what makes you so special for Disney to guarantee your seat and drop your wait all the way down to 15 minutes that they can't get from the other thousands of guests in the park that day that didn't have FP+, and are demonstrating they are willing to wait 125 minutes?

Because, that's what I think upsets guests as much as the wait. The idea that difficult guests (unwilling to wait) should be given THAT MUCH benefit over everyone else, when they are also likely spending the same unreasonable amounts of money. What makes those group 1 people so dang important! People understand that if you want something, you should either be willing to wait for it or pay for it. And Disney apparently also seems to think they were offering 15 minute waits too cheaply. How much too cheap and if they gave it to the "wrong people" too cheap will be revealed in what is offered to resort guests, passholders, DVC, day guests. Because I am pretty sure that people that were booking their FP+ at the first opportunity were tuned into all the other type of hacks to lower their cost/maximize value of their vacation in other ways, and Disney would rather that space went to the guest willing to pay full price.

 

[Waters Back Side]

Because you won't? Going back to the continual FOP example.

FP+ equaled 15 minute waits for some and 210 minute waits for others
No FP equals 125 minute waits for everyone.

We can actually break people down into 4 groups. I'm going to assume that people have a range on which waits are "reasonable and expected." I'm going to suggest on a busy (but not holiday) day it's : 60 minutes E-tickets, 45 minutes D-tickets, 30 minutes C-tickets, 15-20 minutes - everything else. So what happens when that level can't be achieved?

Group 1: People unwilling to wait 60 minutes
Group 2: People willing to wait 60 minutes, but unwilling to wait 125 minutes
Group 3: People willing to wait 125 minutes but not 210 minutes
Group 4: People willing to wait 210 minutes

You and those other guys are in one of the first 2 groups. And without FP, you will take your ball and go home. But there are a bunch of people in group 3 that were cheesed off because they were forced into skipping an experience, because while they were willing to put up with crazy they were not willing to put up with insanity. Their experience improves because they went from a non-rider to a rider. And you've improved the experience of those waiting 210 minutes too.

There are only 14,000ish seats for FOP, in a park that averages 38,000 guests per day. There is no system that can satisfy all the people that want to ride FOP on a given day. Someone doesn't end up with a seat in musical chairs. So what makes you so special for Disney to guarantee your seat and drop your wait all the way down to 15 minutes that they can't get from the other thousands of guests in the park that day that didn't have FP+, and are demonstrating they are willing to wait 125 minutes?

Because, that's what I think upsets guests as much as the wait. The idea that difficult guests (unwilling to wait) should be given THAT MUCH benefit over everyone else, when they are also likely spending the same unreasonable amounts of money. What makes those group 1 people so dang important! People understand that if you want something, you should either be willing to wait for it or pay for it. And Disney apparently also seems to think they were offering 15 minute waits too cheaply. How much too cheap and if they gave it to the "wrong people" too cheap will be revealed in what is offered to resort guests, passholders, DVC, day guests. Because I am pretty sure that people that were booking their FP+ at the first opportunity were tuned into all the other type of hacks to lower their cost/maximize value of their vacation in other ways, and Disney would rather that space went to the guest willing to pay full price.

I was responding "they are wrong" to anyone who thought people would still flock in herds if they charged everyone for Fast Pass. Not about how it impact lines.

But now that you mention it.

Its 4:50 PM EST in WDW. There is no Fast Pass. Lets look at real time instead of equations...

Slinky Dog Dash is 80 minutes
Flight of Passage is 110 minutes
Kali River Rapids is 65 minutes
Splash Mountain is 65 minutes
Test Track is 60 minutes
Rock N Roller Coaster is 60 minutes

This is no Fast Pass. Reduced capacity. The weather this week has had an impact. Yet the lines are still long. IF you had not known that FP was not available currently and looked at those wait times above you would guess it is still provided for free.

 

[MrPromey]

I would say WDW needs to cut FP availability at least in half in order to make the standby lines better..........SO by making 50% less available AND wanting to monetize it, they will not be able to give free FP to all groups (AP, Value, Moderate, Deluxe) like they did before..........They will have to Tier them and then charge for anything beyond that

Don't forget those lowly off-site guests paying for day tickets. They still got to partake in the current/previous system, too.

 

[dreday3]

I was responding "they are wrong" to anyone who thought people would still flock in herds if they charged everyone for Fast Pass. Not about how it impact lines.

But now that you mention it.

Its 4:50 PM EST in WDW. There is no Fast Pass. Lets look at real time instead of equations...

Slinky Dog Dash is 80 minutes
Flight of Passage is 110 minutes
Kali River Rapids is 65 minutes
Splash Mountain is 65 minutes
Test Track is 60 minutes
Rock N Roller Coaster is 60 minutes

This is no Fast Pass. Reduced capacity. The weather this week has had an impact. Yet the lines are still long. IF you had not known that FP was not available currently and looked at those wait times above you would guess it is still provided for free.

The only one of those lines that would deter me is Flight of Passage and I don't mind skipping it.

As for the rest - let's get in line! That's the beauty of longer trips. We have 9 days, so some hour long lines are nothing to us.

But of course I'd rather be able to fast pass it.

 

[jpinkc]

You'd think they would have to go live with something before the holiday season at least, preferably before (Oct. 1 or earlier). That means the plans must be put out there relatively soon.

I dont know. They may make it worse on purpose so we will be Thank you, Thank You, Disney that you finally did something about lines in early 2022. That strategy would make sense if they are totally inflexible on paid FP. Let chaos reign then ride in to save us all with Paid FP

 

[WDWTrojan]

I was responding "they are wrong" to anyone who thought people would still flock in herds if they charged everyone for Fast Pass. Not about how it impact lines.

But now that you mention it.

Its 4:50 PM EST in WDW. There is no Fast Pass. Lets look at real time instead of equations...

Slinky Dog Dash is 80 minutes
Flight of Passage is 110 minutes
Kali River Rapids is 65 minutes
Splash Mountain is 65 minutes
Test Track is 60 minutes
Rock N Roller Coaster is 60 minutes

This is no Fast Pass. Reduced capacity. The weather this week has had an impact. Yet the lines are still long. IF you had not known that FP was not available currently and looked at those wait times above you would guess it is still provided for free.

Not really? It's a summertime Friday. I'd have expected FOP to be 180+ and SDD to be 90+.

Capacity is barely reduced. With so many crowd-fillers closed (shows, etc) the demand on the attractions is as high as it was pre-COVID.

 

[MrPromey]

The reason fastpass+ didn’t work is that attendance exceeded ride capacity…because they didn’t add to/vary their parks for 20 years…and the prebooking system exposed that.

I think you’re hoping for some type of middle ground that doesn’t cost everyone…and I think we’re past that…

prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Not heading that way, however

Anyone who doubts this and has ridden JIYI, ask yourself why something like that should/would ever actually need fastpass? Ask yourself why the movie theater nextdoor showing shorts that were included as a bonus on top of movies people were already paying to see in regular theaters across the world over the last decade would need it.

 

[MrPromey]

This is another “duality” scenario we run into

“Disney parks aren’t like THOSE parks…”
“But you should expect to wait an hour for big Thunder (1981…not top top thrill dragster) just like THOSE parks”

or am I not following?

I'd argue BTM has other things going for it which make the comparison more challenging... But not SDD (other than age) and not The Barnstormer by any stretch but I've seen it...