FastPass+ Most Certainly Not Coming Back As It Was

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They can still implement this and make everyone happy if they allot DPA to all on site guests for free and offer deals to buy more passes for rides or shows etc. And they can also offer deals to the lesser attractions knowing that the once in a lifetime trip to Disney family, etc might decide to accept an exciting offer for 18 dollars per guest ride Peter Pan at 7pm. While the standby pass is their way of controlling line waits. I'm not blind or oblivious to the face Disney will try to make money off of this. No doubt this would be a monetary change but I do not think they will risk losing more money elsewhere as by charging all guests, they would lose people who want the meal plan or buying merchandise.

The more and more i think about this is I am on the boat with those who think this is not going to be as dramatic of a change price wise or systemically other then a new app to manage and receive offers or buy.

They have zero reason to do that…

why invent a new revenue stream and then give it away to what you have already sold that is burdened by high overhead cost?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disney can manipulate capacity. Run one track on space mountain. No reason why FP sales have to be limited to busy days

They already have been doing that for years…likely to drive after hours “experiences”

 

[kong1802]

Disney can manipulate capacity. Run one track on space mountain. No reason why FP sales have to be limited to busy days

How dare someone who decides to travel outside of busy times be rewarded with shorter waits?

If word of that got out.....

 

[pdude81]

I'm convinced Disney will have to implement dynamic pricing during the day for FastPass. They're looking to optimize revenue. The most practical way to do that is by adjusting the price during the day.

If they set the cost of a FP too low, you start a death spiral for the standby line. You end up with the same problem you had with FastPass+, and you didn't make enough money to compensate for the drop in guest satisfaction. For example, let's say:

• Disney prices a 7DMT FP at $0.01
• 7DMT handles 1,500 people per hour
• 75% of the ride's capacity is allocatedfor FP++
• Guest satisfaction drops significantly once wait times exceed 20 minutes (per Bruce Laval, the guy that invented FastPass, in recent court testimony)

This is essentially the pre-pandemic FastPass model, with a $0.01/ride cost.

In this case, you'll end up with a standby line that looks a lot like pre-pandemic standby lines, with peak posted waits of around 120 minutes for yesterday ("first Tuesday in July"). And you've made $11.25 per hour for the park:



Conversely, suppose you price each FP at $1000 and no one uses it. Then you end up with the situation you have today. Wait times are still high enough to cause guest dissatisfaction, and you've made no money:



Dynamic pricing allows Disney to protect itself against setting the price too low or too high.

The other thing to note is that paid FP, and dynamic pricing in particular, is all profit for Disney; the price of your ticket, food, and merch already covers the cost of running the parks. We know this because the parks operated at a profit before the pandemic.

They wouldn't need to go to a dynamic model if they capped the number of fastpasses below what they would have had previously. Let's say they gave out 1100 free fastpasses per hour for 7DMT before, which drove up standby waits pretty steadily. If they were to launch this with 700 fastpasses per hour and 150 DAS passes per hour, then that still allows the standby line to move more people and at $10 per paid pass brings in 7k per hour. For simplicity let's put that for 10 hours a day uptime and a total of 70k per day or roughly $25,000,000 of fastpass revenue for this one ride in a year if I assume 5 maintenance days. That's 25 mil for one ride in one year if they sell out. I can't assume they would every hour, but this line is consistently 45+ minutes without fastpass and I think they would sell at least 500 per hour on average. A ton of money for one ride, and I expect even Small World could generate

Then if the demand is through the roof they can use the old "tiered" pass system to charge different prices per tier and raise certain rides to 15 or 20 bucks. I would expect "unprecedented" demand if they capped them at a reasonable level and didn't anger the masses with price gouging.

There is one way I could support dynamic pricing, and that is for re-rides. If you have already purchases a FP for one ride, the next one you purchase could cost more. That would discourage people from burnin through all the paid options for a popular ride before others have a chance to get on, but doesn't penalize the person who got to the park at 11am.

 

[pdude81]

Disney can manipulate capacity. Run one track on space mountain. No reason why FP sales have to be limited to busy days

No argument here. But if only the paid versions they would have trouble with that. The virtual standby pass is where the real power lies. That's the part of this that could be used for good or evil.

 

[Waters Back Side]

They have zero reason to do that…

why invent a new revenue stream and then give it away to what you have already sold that is burdened by high overhead cost?

Because when you go from something that was free to no longer free they will still profit from it and also have a way of controlling lines. Spreading the crowd and still make money.

There is MANY reasons to do that...who wants to stay at a Disney hotel if they have to pay for rides the same way someone stays at a non Disney hotel does? Who would want to buy a meal plan which is more expensive (for in some ways CONSIDERABLY more profitable) or a dessert party, or an after hours event or something that makes sense to upcharge when you are paying for rides all day.

I'd bet money that SOME components of DCA are perk driven and free for guests. Whether it is less then the previous FP+ system or the same with the option for Disney to make money from it, I'm fairly confident that this will not be a pay per ride situation. DLP is much different than WDW in many ways.

 

[matt9112]

That’s PRECISELY how publicly traded mega US companies are run. They live or die by their quarterly investor calls and Wall Street pundit analyses.

You can hate the game but that doesn’t change the facts of the game.

TNT

 

[matt9112]

What are you talking about?

This system sucks, but it's... not that.

On a busy day it could be...imagine ROTR but for everything busier days will probably statistically see more premier usage too...further reducing stand by. Cant wait to be told i have no chance of riding its a small world.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Because when you go from something that was free to no longer free they will still profit from it and also have a way of controlling lines. Spreading the crowd and still make money.

There is MANY reasons to do that...who wants to stay at a Disney hotel if they have to pay for rides the same way someone stays at a non Disney hotel does? Who would want to buy a meal plan which is more expensive (for in some ways CONSIDERABLY more profitable) or a dessert party, or an after hours event or something that makes sense to upcharge when you are paying for rides all day.

I'd bet money that SOME components of DCA are perk driven and free for guests. Whether it is less then the previous FP+ system or the same with the option for Disney to make money from it.

That’s a very optimistic/pro-consumer take….

i hope you’re right. Want to put a bet on it?

 

[Waters Back Side]

That’s a very optimistic/pro-consumer take….

i hope you’re right. Want to put a bet on it?

I'd bet anyone that guests will not be CHARGED for every ride. What you are suggesting is people who spent thousands of dollars in a vacation during a peak week have to wonder of they will get on FOP etc. Without paying more. I'll eat my hat if most or all WDW guests dont get AT LEAST one freebie walk on.

As far as Disney making money off this, I want you to realize I AGREE! They intend to. They plan to. But they will do so in a way that it does not cripple or price out the majority of guests who occupy 32 resorts in Orlando specifically to get the most ott of their disney vacation.

 

[Cmdr_Crimson]

You Both are COMPLETELY wrong and frankly out of line…

…they did not have Apple Pay in 1971

Well, we better be seeing a lower admission fee if were going to be coughing up the cash to pay to ride rides like they did in 71..

 

[Waters Back Side]

Well, we better be seeing a lower admission fee if were going to be coughing up the cash to pay to ride rides like they did in 71..

You won't be. At least as much as people are making you think. And I do not have to know anyone or have sources or insight to state this. It's common sense.

Can we stop being ridiculous please? You will NOT have to pay to walk on EVERY SINGLE RIDE.

Could I see bundled packages? Yes. Could I see all guests being offered deals to purchase more on the app? YES! But you will get to enjoy 1 top ticket (and possibly more) at no additional charge.

 

[pax_65]

Yeah, I will not pay for that price. Luckily (weird to say that for pay to play) for standby and DPA at that price, I think they will hit their revenue targets and also keep standby moving at a good clip (though I'm guessing you will still have to wait 2.5 hrs in standby virtual and regular standby). Doesn't do anything to fix the problems of capacity, but at least in an ideal world, standby will more or less continuously move, which may be less frustrating than when it was very start and stop.

This is the only thing that MIGHT give me some hope. I can remember discussing FP years ago and the consensus was that in terms of being able to experience a lot of attractions, the old paper FP was the best option... no FP was the second best option and the latest form of FP was the least desirable option. This because so many people used it, so the FP lines were packed and the standby line was slowed. Since the number of FPs you can get is limited, you need the standby line to move relatively quickly if you want to get a lot done.

So in theory, if the paid FP line is priced high, only a few people will use it and the standby line could move faster. But I'm still pretty skeptical. We'll see how it plays out.

 

[GhostHost1000]

…I think it’s oxygen deprivation.

or more likely a somewhat naive belief that the goal of rationing rides and then reselling them is an attempt at making a “more popular product”

‘tis not..it’s simply making a revenue stream using the juju that a now well trained consumer base is giving them to work with.

leads straight back to after hours…if you want to look…and prior to that to the reaction during the housing crash. It’s not that hard to retrace the steps.

Exactly. If some would escape the pixie dust cloud and see the reality of the trends it’s pretty obvious of the Disney direction for some time

 

[GhostHost1000]

No. I’m assuming it’s a better guest experience because it makes it much easier to plan and navigate the park!
No need to book FPs at 6am 60 days in advance, managing 60+ day schedules. No need to waste FPs on attractions like BATB because if tiers. No limit of only 1 tier-1 attraction.

Instead, same day flexibility. It’s raining… maybe not a good day to go to AK. Now I can switch plans, without losing all my AK FPs.

Hmmm, Splash Mountain only has a 10 minute line… I’ll ride standby instead of getting a pass. Big Thunder Mountain live is up to 45 minutes, I think I’ll pay $10 to skip it, without having to make that plan 60 days in advance.

So much same day flexibility. A vastly improved guest experience.

Ok. Well enjoy being on your phone half the day while trying to enjoy vacation improving your guest experience and while additional credit card transactions occur.

 

[Castle Cake Apologist]

It's kind of funny/sad... I play Disney Emoji Blitz, which was a pretty fun game until it was sold off to Jam City. Jam City turned it into a bit of a slog, whereby the focus is on how to milk as much $$$ from players as possible. And limiting how much you can play, or how many emojis you can get, because if you don't spend the $$$ you simply can't do the events.

It caused a ton of grief among old players, who did drop the game. I've thought about it as well. But they were replaced by new players who didn't have a clue how good and fun the game actually used to be. To the new players, this is how it actually works.

That's what comes to mind when I see this image. "Buy now! Super sale! At lightning speed!!" It's like the Parks are being "sold off" to a predatory company (*cough*Jamcity*cough*) that just wants to bankrupt you through microtransactions. Most of us will realize what's going on and be disillusioned. Some will move on. But enough will stay and enough new visitors will visit to make it worth Disney's while to lower the quality even more than they already have.

It's depressing, but the Disney we all grew up with is really no more. Either we accept they're even more blatantly totally just in it for the $$$ and get what enjoyment we can, or we start planning vacations elsewhere.

Don't get me started on Emoji Blitz! Jam City ruined what was a wonderful game, with basically every new emoji behind a steep pay wall. I used to play every day and now I might open it once or twice a month.

 

[phillip9698]

I remember die hards defending the price increases when FP+ came around saying its great because you can now be guaranteed to ride some favorites with minimum wait. Soooooooooooooo, FP+ is gone, being replaced with a paid version, so why isnt the ticket price coming down?

 

[Raineman]

Can we stop being ridiculous please? You will NOT have to pay to walk on EVERY SINGLE RIDE.

I don't think anyone here is seriously thinking that - one main point of the whole discussion has been centered on the requirement of having to pay for FPs. Even if they do offer 1 freebie as you suggest, that still means you have to shell out $ for any additional. And the possibility of having to book virtual standby queues is the other main point of all of this.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don't think anyone here is seriously thinking that - one main point of the whole discussion has been centered on the requirement of having to pay for FPs. Even if they do offer 1 freebie as you suggest, that still means you have to shell out $ for any additional. And the possibility of having to book virtual standby queues is the other main point of all of this.

Not only this…but let’s not pretend that going on ANY ride is what anyone wants…

it’s about going on the popular rides…going on old favorites…and going on multiple times if you want to or the kids like it…

This “counterpoint” is the same thing that has been going on for 15 years (no irony in the date)…the customers telling their fellow customers to “settle for what you get!”…at escalating prices

 

[ParentsOf4]

I don't doubt that the combination of all these things will drive sales. I just was saying they can't reserve capacity for the FP lines. They can change the merge ratios, but you can't reserve 50% of capacity for FP unless there are enough people to fill up that 50%.

For certain attractions each day or certain times of the year for C ticket rides, there might be enough paid volume for that. I just don't think the appetite is there most days now with a paid model. This all depends on whether they give out one free FP for all ticketed guests and let on-site book them upon check in or park entry. If you already factor in 25000 free fastpasses, then that already builds in a little more wait on standby and pressure to buy before all the paid fastpasses run out.

I guess we'll see what the demand really is for many paid passes once a system is announced for WDW.

Simplistically, Disney is not going to create a new product (Premier Access) so it doesn’t sell.

Disney is investing IT development cost on this. They are going to demand a profit. They are going to figure out ways so that sales meet or exceed expectations.

Remember, there is no “slow time of the year” anymore. It’s not like the old days when I could arrive in late September and walk on everything.

Today’s WDW is either “crowded” or “really crowded”. Most amusement park operators wish their peak daily attendance reached what qualifies as a “slow day” at today’s WDW.

Disney absolutely is planning on selling lots of Premier Access passes every day.

I used to frequently write that Disney needs to build a 5th theme park in order to solve their current capacity problem.

With Premier Access in mind, I now realize Disney does NOT want to solve their capacity problem. With Premier Access, Disney is now financially motivated to make their capacity problem worse.