Face it, Mission Space's Days are Numbered.

[Master Yoda]

I want actual numbers too... I refrain from posting made up numbers trying to prove a point, which, in all due respect, you did...

I wasn't trying to prove a point. The only reason I even gave an example was when you and MJL chimed in with your "TT's wait times are longer than M:S so it must be better" argument immediately after I asked for the info. I was trying to clarify what I was looking for and why. Not become a part of this pointless and futile M:S argument.

 

[GothMickey]

I wasn't trying to prove a point. The only reason I even gave an example was when you and MJL chimed in with your "TT's wait times are longer than M:S so it must be better" argument immediately after I asked for the info. I was trying to clarify what I was looking for and why. Not become a part of this pointless and futile M:S argument.

I said TT was more popular, not better...

 

[Master Yoda]

I said TT was more popular, not better...

If you are stating that is your own opinion then fine. If you stating that is the majority of guest opinions based on wait times alone your logic is very possibly flawed. Wait time is not only a factor of a rides popularity but of it's capacity and down time.

 

[GothMickey]

true Master Yoda.. I agree.. it is my opinion based on what I have seen (wait times and lines) that TT is more popular.. But I agree... That is not a good indicator as to which ride is more popular... it only shows that a ride popular... doesn't mean one is more popular than the other..

Does anyone know where we can get close to official numbers???

 

[robynchic]

Someone on another message board I'm on made a brilliant observation. Let's analyze the incidences mathematically.

For math's sake, we'll use American average figures. We will also, for math's sake, round to the nearest 10.

~ Average life expectancy: 70
~ Assume that the chance of death is constant throughout life (for ease of calculation)
~ The ride is four minutes long; rider change-out and check is about 2 minutes. Total time for each rider is approximately 6 minutes.

Therefore, the chances of dying in any 6-minute period is 70 * 365 * 24 * 60/6. It comes out to about 1:6,132,000

Next, we assume:

~ 160 guests/cycle (4 bays, 10 pods in each bay...you figure it out)
~ 6 minute total ride time
~ M:S is open for 12 hours a day, generally (9 am-9 pm)

For a ten-year period estimation of total passengers, we'll use the official opening day of 6 October 2003. So that leads us from 2003-2012. 2003-2012 has 3 leap years. So we will also have to factor in those three days.

~ 160/6 * 60 * 12 * 365 * 10 is the equation to factor the 10 years (sans the extra 3 days). So that's 70,080,000 people in 10 years.

Let's include the 3 days...

~ (160/6 * 60 * 12 * 365 * 10) + (160/6 * 60 * 12 * 3) = 70,080,000 + 57,600.

~ So the total number of riders in 10 years would be 70,137,600.

To get the number of people that would die in a 10-year period on this ride would then be 70,137,600/6,132,000.

Rounding down (because you can't have partial riders!), approximately 11 people will die on Mission: Space in 10 years, presumably due to natural causes.

Have I gotten technical enough for you? :lol:

 

[GothMickey]

Wow, you thought about that long and hard... So, has others have said without doing that math... 1 death a year associated with M:S... JROK I think averaged that out without even doing that whole equation..

But, wow.. thanks for taking the time out to do that.

 

[Master Yoda]

Have I gotten technical enough for you? :lol:

Not quite. :lol:

To be more accurate we should really use numbers based on sudden and unexpected death from natural causes. In your calculations a car accident victim, a hospitalized cancer patient and person with an undetected heart defect all carry the same weight in the equation. If these numbers could be accurately determined (which they really can't) the ratio of sudden fatalities at the parks should roughly balance out with the outside world.

Another factor that would have to figured in as well would be the stress put on someone (increased heart rate, blood pressure etc) by a thrill ride that they would not normally see in their day to day lives. (assuming that the person had no knowledge of an undetected condition)

But......basically what you are saying is true. People are going to die on rides at absolutely no fault of the ride itself.

 

[robynchic]

Wow, you thought about that long and hard... So, has others have said without doing that math... 1 death a year associated with M:S... JROK I think averaged that out without even doing that whole equation..

But, wow.. thanks for taking the time out to do that.

I'm a college student with WAY too much time on her hands...Besides, I ripped off of that guy a bit (with his permission) to create a more precise calculation.

 

[Pirate665]

More likely, they will alter the warning signs to include high blood pressure and other ailments, and also perhaps have the CMs do a verbal warning before allowing guests into the ride chamber.

Sorry to be touvhing back upon this point, but HBP is already and has been part of the audio/visual warnings. And it's even on the website and has been for sometime. (I know because I have the warning posted in my car as a joke.)

For safety, you should be in good health and free from high blood pressure, heart, back or neck problems, motion sickness, or other conditions that could be aggravated by this adventure. Expectant mothers should not ride.

http://disneyworld.disney.go.com/wdw/parks/attractionDetail?id=MissionSPACEAttractionPage

And I think the ride has a great RC. It moves rather quickly. The lines are short because people with small children usually don't ride. (And I back this up by friggin working at EPCOT.) Not to say they don't ride, it's just most sensible parents take the signs seriously. Esp. if they've visited before and seen people coming off. The fact is that the ride has an audience that if the ride where soften, would freak. But it's more than likely going to happen. Because, if Disney doesn't, then it would be a PR disaster. The press would be reporting the sligthest thing and blowing it way outta sight. They do that. So, Disney has to make some kind of decision and reworking the ride might happen on the refurb. (Hopefully not, but time will tell us. I'm really wanting the ride to stay the same.) And the best thing for us to do on this post is just to agree to disagree, because we can't get at official numbers, and move on. Crap happens and people should use common sense when visiting a theme park. The lady didn't know she had HBP, but the boys parents knew he had health problems and didn't head the warnings. My sympothy goes out to both. But... people should really use common sense.

P.S.: Park maps are avaible in different languages, guest can request a Guest Relations CM to translate for them, or they can pick up the language headsets to hear the warnings and preshows in their language.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Someone on another message board I'm on made a brilliant observation. Let's analyze the incidences mathematically.

For math's sake, we'll use American average figures. We will also, for math's sake, round to the nearest 10.

~ Average life expectancy: 70
~ Assume that the chance of death is constant throughout life (for ease of calculation)
~ The ride is four minutes long; rider change-out and check is about 2 minutes. Total time for each rider is approximately 6 minutes.

Therefore, the chances of dying in any 6-minute period is 70 * 365 * 24 * 60/6. It comes out to about 1:6,132,000

Next, we assume:

~ 160 guests/cycle (4 bays, 10 pods in each bay...you figure it out)
~ 6 minute total ride time
~ M:S is open for 12 hours a day, generally (9 am-9 pm)

For a ten-year period estimation of total passengers, we'll use the official opening day of 6 October 2003. So that leads us from 2003-2012. 2003-2012 has 3 leap years. So we will also have to factor in those three days.

~ 160/6 * 60 * 12 * 365 * 10 is the equation to factor the 10 years (sans the extra 3 days). So that's 70,080,000 people in 10 years.

Let's include the 3 days...

~ (160/6 * 60 * 12 * 365 * 10) + (160/6 * 60 * 12 * 3) = 70,080,000 + 57,600.

~ So the total number of riders in 10 years would be 70,137,600.

To get the number of people that would die in a 10-year period on this ride would then be 70,137,600/6,132,000.

Rounding down (because you can't have partial riders!), approximately 11 people will die on Mission: Space in 10 years, presumably due to natural causes.

Have I gotten technical enough for you? :lol:

Your math is a little bit off...12 million people have ridden it in its first 3 years, so in 10 years, 40 million would ride. Roughly 6 would spontaneously die, and we've had 2 in the first 3 years, so we are right on track.

As for test track being more popular...its hourly capacity is disgustingly low. I don't know the exact number, but I figure a car whizzes by no more than every 20 seconds. That would be 1080 guests per hour compared to Mission: SPACE's 2400. If 12 million people have ridden M:S in 3 years, that's 11000 people a day. Test track's max is about 13000/day, but we can bet it doesn't approach that with its down time, so odds are Test Track and Mission: SPACE have equivalent popularity.

 

[GothMickey]

I'm a college student with WAY too much time on her hands...Besides, I ripped off of that guy a bit (with his permission) to create a more precise calculation.

But still... That was, umm, just WOW :hammer:
Some guy actually took the time out to figure that out?? Maybe he too much time on his hands LOL....

 

[Master Yoda]

Your math is a little bit off...12 million people have ridden it in its first 3 years, so in 10 years, 40 million would ride. Roughly 6 would spontaneously die, and we've had 2 in the first 3 years, so we are right on track.

As for test track being more popular...its hourly capacity is disgustingly low. I don't know the exact number, but I figure a car whizzes by no more than every 20 seconds. That would be 1080 guests per hour compared to Mission: SPACE's 2400. If 12 million people have ridden M:S in 3 years, that's 11000 people a day. Test track's max is about 13000/day, but we can bet it doesn't approach that with its down time, so odds are Test Track and Mission: SPACE have equivalent popularity.

I had heard that the hourly capacity of M:S was near double that of TT but had no official sources to back up the numbers. If those numbers you posted are even remotely correct is is pretty easy to see how M:S could service more guests than TT and still maintain a lower wait time, especially if you look at wait times toward the end of the day.

 

[GothMickey]

Your math is a little bit off...12 million people have ridden it in its first 3 years, so in 10 years, 40 million would ride. Roughly 6 would spontaneously die, and we've had 2 in the first 3 years, so we are right on track.

We can cut her a little slack.. After all, she is in college.. Might have had one heck of a frat party this weekend... or she just miscalculated. (a little sarcasm..)

I still appreciate the time she took to post this

 

[robynchic]

We can cut her a little slack.. After all, she is in college.. Might have had one heck of a frat party this weekend... or she just miscalculated. (a little sarcasm..)

I still appreciate the time she took to post this

:lol:
Nah, no frat parties. Last night was one hell of a night when SO told me that he might look into going to a school 6 hours away for his Ph.D. Stress and/or making me REALLY upset just before bedtime makes my tummy VERY unhappy...

And I was calculating it based on general figures. The numbers are reasonable, when you look at how I came to the figures.

Speaking of SO, he and I were just talking about it over lunch, and we realized what I was really trying to say...
Assuming that everyone that goes on the ride with a potentially fatal health condition either doesn't know they have the condition or they disregard warnings...then it's 11 potential deaths. But, as people have said, someone with an undiagnosed potentially fatal health condition is essentially a ticking time bomb, where the slightest disturbance could make it blow up.

 

[ClemsonTigger]

...and lets see, there was a system related death on CoP, probably the most ride linked deaths on BT....and our far away leader are those horrible resort swimming pools...definitely time to fill those puppies in! :brick:

 

[GothMickey]

...and lets see, there was a system related death on CoP, probably the most ride linked deaths on BT....and our far away leader are those horrible resort swimming pools...definitely time to fill those puppies in! :brick:

On CoP?? When did this one happen?? I never heard of this one... Got a link so I can read it? Thanks in advance...

Robyn, don't worry... going 6 hours away isn't that bad...

 

[JimboJones123]

Can't you tell ONE WEEK LATER that Goth may just be poking everybody w/a stick and seeing if you move? His point has been made -- it won't change... let it go folks. And don't hate the dead person...it isn't nice.

 

[Hakunamatata]

...and lets see, there was a system related death on CoP, probably the most ride linked deaths on BT....and our far away leader are those horrible resort swimming pools...definitely time to fill those puppies in! :brick:

And by all means dont forget all the travel related deaths of people too and from Disney. Those far outnumber any deaths on Disney property. We need to close down all the roads in and out of the resort, including the major interstates in and out of Florida, since thats how people get there...

 

[Connor002]

On CoP?? When did this one happen?? I never heard of this one... Got a link so I can read it? Thanks in advance...

I don't have a link handy, but a CM was crushed between show scenes...

 

[wdwishes2005]

On CoP?? When did this one happen?? I never heard of this one... Got a link so I can read it? Thanks in advance...

Robyn, don't worry... going 6 hours away isn't that bad...

If I recall correctly a CM got smashed between some walls.


http://www.snopes.com/disney/parks/amersing.htm