Looking at the reviews, it does seem that after this and Lightyear Pixar really does need to look at what has changed regarding the creative process from their earlier successes. Amongst other reasons for the film underperforming, I do think Pixar's brand has always been as the more sophisticated US animation studio in terms of storytelling and that needs to be part of the appeal. When a film like this comes out and the consensus is that it is just ok, it becomes a far harder sell than the known quantity of a franchise. The studio is a bit of a victim of its own success in that regard, as "lesser Pixar" is now a phrase people throw around when the films don't quite hit the mark of the studio's best work. I don't think even "lesser Disney" is as much of a thing as "lesser Pixar"!
On that front, I don't think the issue is at all that they need to start telling simpler stories of heroes and villains: that was never their brand. From the discussion on here, I think a lot of people would be rolling their eyes at films like Ratatouille, Wall-E, and Inside Out as being completely unrelatable to the average moviegoer if Pixar released them today. They just need to get back to great storytelling, which is admittedly easier said than done.
Also think post-Luck we can drop the idea that Lasseter was the magic ingredient.
Finally, I agree with those that think there does need to be some re-training of audiences to see a film at the cinema by lengthening the time it takes to come on Disney+. It's not the only (or even necessarily the primary reason) this and really all post-pandemic Disney and Pixar animated films have struggled at the box office, but I think it is part of it. It's kind of the big risk of having a Disney-branded streaming service for all your Disney content: how do you convince people to essentially pay twice for the same Disney content by also seeing it at the cinema? The only way I can think is making it more akin to seeing the film then buying the VHS/DVD/Blu-ray months later.
Before I begin my critique, I'm simply going to quote legendary screenwriter William Goldman, who, when talking about success of a Hollywood film, stated basically, "Nobody knows anything."
Now, if I had to pinpoint anything, I would say Pixar has become too predictable. For a while, I lambasted their tendency to constantly make the same buddy travelogue comedy, which nearly all their early films were (two opposites hit the road and, in the process, learn not only to accept but become true friends with their opposing companion). This was clearly Lasseter's bread and butter (and often the only film he allowed to be greenlit), and when he left (which had nothing to do with his creative direction of his studio) I nonetheless was looking forward to what Pete Doctor was gonna bring.
Under Pete's tenure, Pixar has mostly gone for bildungromans disguised with anthropomorphic metaphors. The themes of growing up and maturing into adulthood is clearly dear to Mr. Doctor, but I think he's making the same mistake Lasseter made, which is that just because he likes these kinds of stories, doesn't mean
every film has to explore the same issue. For Lasseter, it was stubbornness to a story format (they're buddies, but monsters! This time they're buddies, but cars! Now they are also buddies, but chefs!) For Pete, it's the same coming-of-age story with a sheen of the supernatural or fantasy to justify it being an animated film. I still don't understand why Onward needed the fantasy world setting if that movie could have been told with just plain old humans. Same with Elemental. Same with Turning Red. Same with Luca. I don't even think any of these movies are particularly bad, it's just he's draping the same wall with different types of wallpaper and trying to make us pay for it multiple times. But I think audiences have come to know what to expect, and so there literally is no urgency to turn out for a movie where you absolutely know what's coming.
I'm going to say Pixar has become the Norman Rockwell of American studios, because all the criticism of that artist can be leveled at the Pixar: they make awfully technically accomplished works that traffic in a type of predictably sanitary, overly gooey sentimentality; their characters are often the same - no matter they be pandas or elfs or water droplets, they're all basically the same character; their arcs are often the same; and the way these stories are developed lead to stories that are told according to a very specific rhythm that was once revolutionary but has over time developed into a crutch. They can't break our of their own shell.
I'm also not happy with the visual development of a lot of these films. Character development has been weak, the characters all look vaguely similar. There's nothing inherently wrong with the Cal Arts style (though I'm not a huge fan) but the whole industry moved toward it over a decade ago, and it's a little dated now. And they continue to push into photorealism, bolstered by the fact that they have more resources than any other studio to take the time to get computer animation right. That's all well and good, but I think audiences are kinda tired of this look. Perhaps do what Dreamworks and Sony Animation has done, and aim for an animated look that is more abstract and expressive. I loved the looks of The Bad Guys and Puss in Boots 2 for Dreamworks. I loved Sony Animation's Mitchell vs. The Machines. And then of course, Spiderman Across the Universe kicked the industry twenty years into the future; I think that film is one of the audiovisual highlight of the last couple years, and a legitimate landmark achievement in the history of cinema. All these films broke open the mold of CGI animation. But Pixar has, by and large, still been trapped toward the realism look they've always been going toward.
Pixar needs to take more chances with everything: story content, story-telling, artistic expression, visual development, sonic development....they've been so entrenched in their method that the industry as a whole has left them behind. Dear Pixar, stop being conservative! Aim for infinity...and beyond.