Eddie Sotto's take on the current state of the parks (Part II)

[PurpleRose]

The rumored "Smaller iPad" was something I heard about as well. My thought... isn't that the iPhone?

I've downloaded iOS6, and it's been a bit buggy (especially the podcast player). There are some things about it that I like, but I don't see enough in the iPhone 5 that will get me to purchase it any earlier than I'm entitled to based on my cell phone contract.

I also tell people that if you don't use an iPod all that much and/or if you're not a regular iTunes user, stick with the Android. You'll get more for your money.

I completely agree with you. I work for an AT&T business mobility call center (Yes, there are a few of us in the States) and I feel you. There really isn't that much difference between the iPhone 4S and the 5 but people are going gaga. If the bugs had been addressed, as well as the many problems with Siri, I could understand why I'm in mandatory overtime due to call volume. But it's not. And the lengths people are going to for this phone is insane.

I do not get the people who buy iPhones for their older parents who aren't use to anything like that. If you aren't already an iPhone user, I would recommend staying on the Android. I have very little complaints with mine.

 

[Eddie Sotto]

I have the 4S, so if you have a sluggish 3 or were on the fence because you wanted a bigger screen comparing the Samsung or HTC, then the 5 does it all. I think we are also seeing the decline of Blackberry too, so there are finally those giving up that ghost. It must be about contract cycling as well. I have till May or pay the big bucks and I'm not gonna do that.

BTW- ATT has gotten great with the service over the last few years.

 

[scpergj]

The Long Now Foundation also anticipates issues with electronics as a means of storing information. See the Rosetta Project. An "Adventure thru Inner Space".
http://rosettaproject.org

Eddie

I looked this up on a link from the 10,000 year clock you linked to earlier. I find this pretty amazing - the people working on this have put a bunch of thought into the project.

As a server/database guy (I am a contractor that writes code for the government AND maintains company equipment at the same time), I do get jumpy whenever there is a large solar event. Servers, even those properly hardened, are still fragile peices of equipment, as are routers, switches, LCD displays (I do keep a couple of CRTs around...seriously...just in case). Storing information about todays society on analog 'media' that can be read with nothing more than magnification is truely smart.

Is your work on this project as interesting as the project as a whole looks?

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

Maps - why? Because they don't want to concede any ground to Google.. not because they thought they could best them and serve the customers better by having it.

It wasn't that long ago that Google was making major mistakes with their maps, sometimes cities would move around, or be erased. Google has a head start, but eventually, IMHO, Apple's mapping will get good. That's important, (critical even) because virtual/real world interactivity, via the thousands of new business and social media opportunities linked to virtual graffiti could one day be a large category of Apps. Best that Apple has their own maps, rather than relying on Google.

So, what Apple is doing is not to compete with Google Maps today, or even two years from now, but to be able to develop their own next gen maps which will only be partially about geography, but also tethered with many imagined, and even more unimagined, Apps and services.

 

[Eddie Sotto]

Eddie

I looked this up on a link from the 10,000 year clock you linked to earlier. I find this pretty amazing - the people working on this have put a bunch of thought into the project.

As a server/database guy (I am a contractor that writes code for the government AND maintains company equipment at the same time), I do get jumpy whenever there is a large solar event. Servers, even those properly hardened, are still fragile peices of equipment, as are routers, switches, LCD displays (I do keep a couple of CRTs around...seriously...just in case). Storing information about todays society on analog 'media' that can be read with nothing more than magnification is truely smart.

Is your work on this project as interesting as the project as a whole looks?

Yes. Lots of discussion and thought over the years. I've been working directly for Mr. Hillis off and on since he first brought up the idea. Danny is an exceptionally brilliant and yet "down to earth" person. You can't ask for more than that.

 

[flynnibus]

So, what Apple is doing is not to compete with Google Maps today, or even two years from now, but to be able to develop their own next gen maps which will only be partially about geography, but also tethered with many imagined, and even more unimagined, Apps and services.

These are all distractions to Apple. Areas that aren't advancing Apple's core competencies.

Less we forget the first thing Jobs did when returned to Apple was FOCUS the company. Getting into the business review space... getting into the ad-network business..etc really don't focus the company.
Even Google has struggled with this of late (and part of Serg's recent moves.. purging non-essentials) and Yahoo is drowning in this. Apple trying to jump in that pool is a mistake and distraction. Google wasn't holding Apple back - and that should be the first criteria of why you should jump into a space vs partnering.

 

[wdwmagic]

Apple does not excite me like it used to. It hasn't for quite a while. New iPad3? Pass. Retina Display Macbook Pro? Pass. iPhone 5? Maybe later. Rumored smaller iPad? Good for them.

Apple seems to have become the follower by enlarging the iPhone screen to deal with HTC and Samsung. I've held it , it's very nice, but so what. Since when has any new device gotten bigger? Refinements vs. breakthroughs. Siri still does not work very well. Frustrating. They have perfected the communication anxiety of calling an overseas call center. Thanks for that.

The last time I was excited was the Unibody souped up 11" Air. Awesome machine.

If you look at these recent operating systems it seems that many articles written about them are showing ways to turn off features so they work like the earlier systems.
Features for their own sake or more PC like to gather an audience. IMO Apple has already lost it's way since Steve Jobs died. Ruining Final Cut Pro to dumb down their software and other questionable decisions like killing off iWeb. This issue with the iOS Maps app seems to me like they could be entering a post Walt "Ron Miller" period. Is being so successful ruining their culture? Are they defending the crown instead of risking more to achieve something new? Is it all about dominance and fighting Google or building the world's greatest products? Does the iCloud and controlling all of your info ironically fulfill the prophetic Apple "1984" Ad? Like Porsche designs SUV's and Sedans that vary on the 911 design, Apple is refining, not reinventing. Yes, they will put a computer into a TV to control media, we'll see gesture GUI, but overall decline says I.

I think we have to be realistic that Apple are not going to come out with innovations as big as the iPhone and iPad every year. There is an unrealistic expectation that with each product launch that it will be as revolutionary as those. Products like that come around perhaps once every generation, or maybe twice if we are lucky?

If we do look at what was given, there is some pretty significant progress.

You can now run the iPhone at Epcot (or any of the WDW parks) with 45MB download and 15Mb upload speed - pretty good news for anyone wanting to use the internet there.

The new screen, while offering more vertical resolution, is also far more accurate with color than anything before it. Its brightness and clarity are way above anything I have seen, makes my iPhone 4 look dated.

The chassis is thinner and lighter than ever, yet still built like a brick.

The thing is incredibly fast - browsing to WDWMAGIC.COM on the same network as my iPhone 4 renders the page in about 20% of the time.

So for me, not revolutionary, but still a heck of a great product, and I still have faith.

 

[wdwmagic]

It wasn't that long ago that Google was making major mistakes with their maps, sometimes cities would move around, or be erased. Google has a head start, but eventually, IMHO, Apple's mapping will get good. That's important, (critical even) because virtual/real world interactivity, via the thousands of new business and social media opportunities linked to virtual graffiti could one day be a large category of Apps. Best that Apple has their own maps, rather than relying on Google.

So, what Apple is doing is not to compete with Google Maps today, or even two years from now, but to be able to develop their own next gen maps which will only be partially about geography, but also tethered with many imagined, and even more unimagined, Apps and services.

This is very true. The fact that Apple could bring a map system to market so quickly, and be so good is quite amazing. Yes there are a few issue, but also a lot of plusses. It took Google YEARS, and many of those years using data derived from iPhone users to tweek those maps that we all use. Google will now lose that user supplied data, and instead it will be fed into Apple's system. What are the bets that in a few years time Apple's map system will be ahead.

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

This is very true. The fact that Apple could bring a map system to market so quickly, and be so good is quite amazing. Yes there are a few issue, but also a lot of plusses. It took Google YEARS, and many of those years using data derived from iPhone users to tweek those maps that we all use. Google will now lose that user supplied data, and instead it will be fed into Apple's system. What are the bets that in a few years time Apple's map system will be ahead.

^ Agreed. It's going to get harder and harder to separate Google/Apple's map system from a variety of future Apps, IMHO. So, I'm glad to see Apple get into mapping, plus they've got an army of Apple devotees wielding iPhones to help update the maps. There's a lot of creative ideas concerning how the map data can be used to build some pretty interesting Apps. I look at Apple's map system as the basis for future innovation.

 

[flynnibus]

I think we have to be realistic that Apple are not going to come out with innovations as big as the iPhone and iPad every year. There is an unrealistic expectation that with each product launch that it will be as revolutionary as those. Products like that come around perhaps once every generation, or maybe twice if we are lucky?

I don't agree - Apple's own history has shown the ability to create disruptor products time and time again. I don't even want to invest the time to list them out there is so many.

I think part of it right now is Apple is sticking to one phone product - doing so adds some reservation where you don't want to rock the boat too much and risk alienating your customer base. Having all your eggs in one basket brings a lot more risk. If Apple would allow themselves to experiment with another phone model, there would be less risk about sinking their prize ship. It has other negatives, like competing with yourself, splitting resources, etc.. but when it comes to embracing radical change, you need freedom from demands to sustain the existing customer base to enable embracing more radical decisions.

You can see that in the iPod Nano and shuffle. By being 'wing-man' products in the porfolio, they are far more free to take radical turns.

The last few years with all of the products... Apple has been far more focused on industrial design and manufacturing (the unibody.. size.. etc) than actually moving the form factor or concepts themselves.

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

I think we have to be realistic that Apple are not going to come out with innovations as big as the iPhone and iPad every year.

So for me, not revolutionary, but still a heck of a great product, and I still have faith.

Apple's fast paced innovation has worked very well for years. You've got Apple devotees, (and now the general public), anxiously awaiting the next product launch. Apple doesn't even bother advertising their new products given the amount of media attention. Plus, the fast pace of innovation allows Apple to stay ahead of competitors.

Can Apple continue to innovate? I say yes because the whole Apple ecosystem can still expand a lot, and there still are a lot of interesting possibilities in terms of killer apps and such.

 

[flynnibus]

This is very true. The fact that Apple could bring a map system to market so quickly, and be so good is quite amazing. Yes there are a few issue, but also a lot of plusses. It took Google YEARS, and many of those years using data derived from iPhone users to tweek those maps that we all use

There are far more android phones then iPhones.. so I doubt losing those iPhones would put Google at a disadvantage. Instead Apple is now forced to do it themselves, rather than simply benefit from Google doing all the hard work. And while it took Google 'years' - those years were advancing the product and taking it in new directions (walking, streetview, public transit, aquiring map data companies). Apple is coming into the game after many of the core concepts have already been worked out by others.. they buy a few companies.. and then build a product. of course it's going to take them less time to get the simple stuff.. because they're just copying what's already been worked out.

Google will now lose that user supplied data, and instead it will be fed into Apple's system. What are the bets that in a few years time Apple's map system will be ahead.

By volume, there are still more android phones. Google actually has far more resources dedicated to mapping. They have technologies (like street view) that Apple doesn't. They already have better speech recognition. Google is where it is not by brand, but because they offered a better product and have shown no real signs of topping out. Google has tons of motivation to keep investing in mapping based on their advertising and search businesses. Apple is simply trying to recreate what they walked away from. They don't have the complementary businesses in place to motivate and help fund the effort. They're throwing money into a hole to have their own, when they are competing in a space full of 'freebie' competition.. that is still better.

The classic Apple model of 'we'll make it good enough people are willing to pay us for the convenience offered vs free solutions...' won't work here.

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

I don't agree - Apple's own history has shown the ability to create disruptor products time and time again.

What wdwmagic was saying was that Apple (obviously) won't come out with the "one more thing" every single year. Some years are upgrades, but of course, Apple does upgrades like nobody else, they might redesign, and totally "plus" a product, leaving the last generation product in the dust.

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

Google is where it is not by brand, but because they offered a better product and have shown no real signs of topping out. Google has tons of motivation to keep investing in mapping based on their advertising and search businesses. Apple is simply trying to recreate what they walked away from. They don't have the complementary businesses in place to motivate and help fund the effort. They're throwing money into a hole to have their own, when they are competing in a space full of 'freebie' competition.. that is still better.

Here's some points in Apple's favor:

1. In 2008 when Barak Obama was elected, there was a buzz about how he had a presidential Blackberry. Blackberry was at one point in time, the market leader for smart phones. Technology leaders/followers change frequently, in just four years, Google Maps could have significant competition.

2. You assume that Apple is doing mapping to compete with Google, not true per se as there are services/innovations that will depend upon having access to mapping data/infrastructure. Apple isn't late to the game, it's still the Wild West in terms of this type of innovation.

3. Last time I checked, Apple is still the 500 lbs. gorilla in the room, and if they decide to do mapping, they've got the resources to bury Google at some point. But again, its not about competing with a "free" service Google currently offers, but about the eventual end products being dreamed up. (I'd tell you what these apps would look like, but I'm dreaming up some of them myself ;-))

 

[flynnibus]

What wdwmagic was saying was that Apple (obviously) won't come out with the "one more thing" every single year. Some years are upgrades, but of course, Apple does upgrades like nobody else, they might redesign, and totally "plus" a product, leaving the last generation product in the dust.

The iPhone hasn't realy done anything radical since it's introduction 5 years ago. It's essentially the same beast, but faster (while still lagging the network evolutions..) with different industrial designs. The iPhone was a disruptor product - but Apple has yet to challenge the concepts it established. Doing things like adding another camera, adding the current network technology, making it incrementally lighter, etc are not really that significant in the grand scheme. Really the only thing that stands out as not normal iterative work is the push for screen resolution.

Other handset makers have shown the ability to not only make more handsets, but innovate as well. Apple is playing it safe and playing with their material science toys instead of investing in changing the game. Moving from glass to a cool aluminium (which is showing to be less durable) really isn't helping customers. They are more focused on industrial art of late.. then actually advancing the use cases.

 

[flynnibus]

Here's some points in Apple's favor:

1. In 2008 when Barak Obama was elected, there was a buzz about how he had a presidential Blackberry. Blackberry was at one point in time, the market leader for smart phones. Technology leaders/followers change frequently, in just four years, Google Maps could have significant competition.

That was due to a DISRUPTOR in the market - that hasn't appeared yet. Even when Bing came on scene and added 3/4 perspective as a disruptor... Google was rolling out Street View and has still trumped Bing.

2. You assume that Apple is doing mapping to compete with Google, not true per se as there are services/innovations that will depend upon having access to mapping data/infrastructure. Apple isn't late to the game, it's still the Wild West in terms of this type of innovation.

And if you are a developer.. who are you going to use. Apple, who looks to monetize, control services and WHAT you do with them... or Google, who provides free open APIs with relatively virtually no controls on how you use it. Google has EARNED their place in Maps and the success of it's APIs are due to people liking them, not because its the only thing available.

3. Last time I checked, Apple is still the 500 lbs. gorilla in the room, and if they decide to do mapping, they've got the resources to bury Google at some point. But again, its not about competing with a "free" service Google currently offers, but about the eventual end products being dreamed up. (I'd tell you what these apps would look like, but I'm dreaming up some of them myself ;-))

I bet Microsoft felt the same way about resources and who really is the Gorrilla. Google has not been on an island... they buried mapquest, they've held off Bing. And if you want to talk about 'resources', Bing comes from Microsoft who has the motivation and history to prove they are willing to invest billions for years to get a product off the ground (MSN, XBox, Bing). Google has held all of those products off through innovation and making their products open and desirable to use. Apple has a long history of not making open products, and is on a trajectory for MORE control, not less.

Anyone notice how success Apple has been with trying to take over eBooks? Another example of trying to displace the competition so they can simply control the revenue themselves instead of really trying to advance the market. More distractions motivated by revenue hording.

 

[flynnibus]

The meme that just keeps giving... Hitler learns about iOS6 maps

[video]

 

[Eddie Sotto]

The meme that just keeps giving... Hitler learns about iOS6 maps

[video]

Always good for a laugh. I think there was one on EPCOT.

 

[HMF]

Always good for a laugh. I think there was one on EPCOT.

 

[Eddie Sotto]

As you all know, EPCOT will be hitting 30, and so do any of YOU have great EPCOT stories or memories about your early or first visit? What made it feel different? Did you immediately compare it to the MK? What stood out? Did it meet up with your expectations? or a let down? Does it feel the same to you now?