Eddie Sotto's take on the current state of the parks (Part II)

[Pixiedustmaker]

So thought the Romans.

The internet is actually very fragile. Yes, the protocols and such are built to be "self-healing" in a way, but that's the connections between all the servers. The servers themselves that house data and make it up are susceptible to quite a few issues.


I mean, most people stop and stare if you remind them that we really are on a Spaceship Earth - that we are constantly rotating and revolving as a planet in the solar system. It's not something most people think about as they are running through traffic to get the kids to soccer practice so they can run in and buy a $5 cup of coffee at Starbucks while they wait.

A solar flare could, conceivably, wreck a great deal of havoc to communications systems. But in terms of even rebuilding after such an event, the internet was designed in part (I believe) as a military project to build a defense communication network that could continue to function even if part of it was blown up, more or less. And this true to a great extent.

But I was actually referring to the large number of copies of ebooks and journals, and other scientific information. Even if 95% of the internet was destroyed, there would be copies of almost all the important stuff, like literature and such, and thus the only thing, in my mind which would necessitate printing vital docs on nickel coins would be a large nuclear holocaust followed by the collapse of civilization for countless centuries. Even if we suffered nuclear holocaust or a plague that kills off almost everybody, our ancestors would probably be able to piece together most of the knowledge of the old world from the ruins.

A CD with data might not last "forever" in terms of being able to play it in a machine, but if you carefully scanned even a CD cut in half, and if you could resolve the "dot" you could, from an archeological standpoint, reconstruct most of the information.

I would agree that if you stop a mom with three kids in a supermarket and "remind" her that we are on spaceship earth she would stare at you, maybe even call the police, not because she is never philosophical, but because the question is sort of inappropriate and out of the blue.

I do see that the 10,000 year project, given that it involves a pilgrimage, would give folks the time with nature, and the purpose of their journey to reflect upon long term events we don't perceive on a daily basis because they occur so slowly.

Seriously, though, since I do write sci-fiction, I do think about geological time even when I go to the store. I think about what the supermarket looked like before it was paved over, what it looked like thousands of years ago, and how our planet is changing rapidly from a certain point of view.

And its not just me, I would guess that a good chunk of people who go to the grand canyon think about the countless centuries it took to carve it out.

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

Woah, the ceiling and lighting in the Village Haus in WDW looks really bad. McNocchio.

It looks like one person did the elevations which are nicely themed and later someone dealt with the ceiling. Instead of doing the expected scenic sky being edge lit or something like that, they just threw in the panels. Like two different people worked on it, or the ceiling was changed later when they decided they needed more light or something. I imagine it must be deadly in there. The Village Haus in Anaheim is much nicer as I recall.

LED is a more efficient source to use but there are still lingering issues with them as to warmth, color and dimming. Real skylights would have been nice. Incandescent is still the standard emotionally in my opinion.

As your link points out, the Tam O' Shanter (Montgomery's Chanticleer Inn) was designed by one of the first Oscar nominated Set Designers, Harry Oliver (personal hero), who also inspired Knott's Ghost Town by building one of his own in the 30's that was visited by Knott.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Gulch

It's possible Oliver inspired Walt as well as Disney could see how his cartoons could be real world places.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Oliver

I assume the "Pig's Cafe" is inspired by the old 1927 "Pig and Whistle" in Hollywood which has quite an exotic and warm interior. BTW- the lighting is nice too.
http://www.pignwhistlehollywood.com

Thanks for this info!

Yes, the Village Haus looks like they did all of this great detailed work, and then somebody just put up some office style lights.

I use LEDs in my lamps at home, they have these great dimmable Phillips LEDs they came out with this year at Home Depot, you have to use an LED/CFL dimmer if you want to dim them, but they look ten times better than CFLs, and I really can't tell a difference between them and incandescents. They make them in candelabra form too. Just about indistinguishable from a frosted incandescent candelabra type bulb.

I guess one problem is that some of the LED bulbs don't look the same as an incandescent when behind a semi-clear shade, though some LEDs bulbs are close. In ten years, you'll probably be able to get a range of spectrums on LED bulbs, even ones that are a bit more "warmer" the incandescents. Dimmed incandescents give off a much warmer spectrum than when driven at the rated wattage, due to how the filament works.

A while ago, Epcot put LEDs in the lamps around World Showcase Lagoon and they looked awful, the spectrum wasn't "warm" at all. But the new LEDs they've come out with the last year are much improved. (The dimmable LEDs they came out with in 2010-11, some of them gave off almost an orangish glow, but the current Phillips are much improved.)

They are testing LEDs which give off warmer light to replace the popcorn lighting in some areas of MK, I believe they tested some of these out on the Tea Cups last year, might still be there.

I think Village Haus in Disneyland uses skylights, looks better.

 

[Eddie Sotto]

I think Village Haus in Disneyland uses skylights, looks better.

What a difference.

Some LED's have problems with flicker when dimmed down too far. The other thing is that if you dim an incandescent bulb, it gets warmer in color as it dims, while LED's just get dimmer.

 

[flynnibus]

A solar flare could, conceivably, wreck a great deal of havoc to communications systems. But in terms of even rebuilding after such an event, the internet was designed in part (I believe) as a military project to build a defense communication network that could continue to function even if part of it was blown up, more or less. And this true to a great extent.'\

The initial efforts were to connect computing resources within the universities working closely with the DARPA group. The concept of packet switching was conceived independently in the US and in the UK. Only one of those guys was looking at it from a military resiliency aspect. The guys that actually made it work didn't have the 'bomb proof' mandate as part of the project - that was just part of the initial research. The lead in stories in a book about the original ARPA net talks about the original director's desire to kill that myth.

Check out Where the Wizards Stay Up Late: The Origins of the Internet for more details about the original ARPA network, the researchers, the origins of DARPA, and BBN, who built the original interface nodes.

 

[englanddg]

Solar flares...bah...with traditional copper connections the issue is far more likely to be downstream from the offending connection where the ISP is utilizing older connections and cares not to admit it.

As far as wireless, a solar flare would have a terrible impact, especially if large enough to interrupt or disable satellites, but since most wireless is tower to tower, very few users would notice, outside of hiccups in service.

Still, copper is best, fiber is better, and fiber doesn't care much about radiation as long as it's shielded. And that's where we are going.

 

[flynnibus]

Solar flares...bah...with traditional copper connections the issue is far more likely to be downstream from the offending connection where the ISP is utilizing older connections and cares not to admit it.

As far as wireless, a solar flare would have a terrible impact, especially if large enough to interrupt or disable satellites, but since most wireless is tower to tower, very few users would notice, outside of hiccups in service.

He's talking about the doomsday scenario where a solar flare rips through our ionsphere and effectively creates a global EMP event that fries all electronics. The interconnecting media is moot if the terminating ends are fried.

And all long haul is put in as fiber now - it's just so much more flexible and easier to maintain then the monster looms of old.

 

[englanddg]

He's talking about the doomsday scenario where a solar flare rips through our ionsphere and effectively creates a global EMP event that fries all electronics. The interconnecting media is moot if the terminating ends are fried.

And all long haul is put in as fiber now - it's just so much more flexible and easier to maintain then the monster looms of old.

Heh, in a way. Fiber has it's own headaches. The OP though, now that I read the whole thing, has to do with how a very distant human (or non-human) would judge our current state of development.

A cut in half CD would NOT allow them to reconstruct the data in any meaningful sense, and they'd be doing the same as we do now. Making the best guesses we can.

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

What a difference.

Some LED's have problems with flicker when dimmed down too far. The other thing is that if you dim an incandescent bulb, it gets warmer in color as it dims, while LED's just get dimmer.

That's true! Had it (the flickering) happen to me, plus some LEDs buzz when being dimmed. Just figured that Disney would have the resources to test and install the best in terms of LED lighting, and would want to push forward with introducing this technology in the parks as eventually everything will be LEDs.

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

Solar flares...bah...with traditional copper connections the issue is far more likely to be downstream from the offending connection where the ISP is utilizing older connections and cares not to admit it.

As far as wireless, a solar flare would have a terrible impact, especially if large enough to interrupt or disable satellites, but since most wireless is tower to tower, very few users would notice, outside of hiccups in service.

Still, copper is best, fiber is better, and fiber doesn't care much about radiation as long as it's shielded. And that's where we are going.

During the Carrington Flare of 1859, telegraph wires burst into flames. I think that the biggest problem is that solar flares can cause disruptions to power grids, such as the 1989 Quebec blackout, though obviously satellites can also be effected.

A solar flare on the scale of 1859, or perhaps a bit greater, could in theory lead to long term loss of the power grid, if precautions were not taken or not available to protect wires/power regulation systems from the flare. The result would be that food would spoil, lights could go out for months in major cities, and civilization would grind to a halt.

"A 2010 Grid Reliability and Infrastructure Defense Act of the U.S. Congress predicts that it may cost $100 million to protect the United States' power grid against solar EMPs. Without that protection, Congress estimates trillions of dollars in damages and 4 to 10 years to recover, should a Carrington-scale event catch us unprepared."

http://greekgeek.hubpages.com/hub/massive-solar-flare-1859

What good is your computer and cell phone if you can't plug them in for months and the servers and cell phone towers are down too? I guess it'd make a nice little night light before it died.

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

Heh, in a way. Fiber has it's own headaches. The OP though, now that I read the whole thing, has to do with how a very distant human (or non-human) would judge our current state of development.

A cut in half CD would NOT allow them to reconstruct the data in any meaningful sense, and they'd be doing the same as we do now. Making the best guesses we can.

I'm talking about in the future if they used expensive techniques, such as using an advanced scanning electron microscope, they could get some stuff. I guess more from a cut CD which has a piece which at least goes partially all the way around. A CD which has decayed beyond the point of using normal present day means of reading it could, (if the person was motivated enough), still produce a lot of information. Might be fragmented, but if you had other CDs with the same info, you could create a composite of the information.

Below is a SEM of a CD. My bad the example of half a CD (maybe you'd get half of the sentences in a book), but if you had a piece of a CD that went all the way around, you'd get readable info. Even a CD that had a big gash would provide some info. From a Sci-Fi point of view, in the future you could have a person who's job it is to feed CDs to a machine which quickly scans them and then a computer tries to put the pieces together.

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

He's talking about the doomsday scenario where a solar flare rips through our ionsphere and effectively creates a global EMP event that fries all electronics. The interconnecting media is moot if the terminating ends are fried.

And all long haul is put in as fiber now - it's just so much more flexible and easier to maintain then the monster looms of old.

The stuff most likely to get fried during a bad solar flare would be the stuff that already has a large amount of current flowing in it, i.e. power conditioning and regulation systems for the power grid.

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

Still, copper is best, fiber is better, and fiber doesn't care much about radiation as long as it's shielded. And that's where we are going.

It isn't so much the radiation (though satellites would get hit), but the induction of current in wires, hence, copper is not "best" in a solar flare, but since fiber can't really be used yet for wide scale power transmission, copper and various metals are the best we've got.

 

[Cosmic Commando]

During the Carrington Flare of 1859, telegraph wires burst into flames. I think that the biggest problem is that solar flares can cause disruptions to power grids, such as the 1989 Quebec blackout, though obviously satellites can also be effected.

A solar flare on the scale of 1859, or perhaps a bit greater, could in theory lead to long term loss of the power grid, if precautions were not taken or not available to protect wires/power regulation systems from the flare. The result would be that food would spoil, lights could go out for months in major cities, and civilization would grind to a halt.

"A 2010 Grid Reliability and Infrastructure Defense Act of the U.S. Congress predicts that it may cost $100 million to protect the United States' power grid against solar EMPs. Without that protection, Congress estimates trillions of dollars in damages and 4 to 10 years to recover, should a Carrington-scale event catch us unprepared."

http://greekgeek.hubpages.com/hub/massive-solar-flare-1859

What good is your computer and cell phone if you can't plug them in for months and the servers and cell phone towers are down too? I guess it'd make a nice little night light before it died.

With the way the gov't throws money around, this sounds like $100M well spent!

 

[stevehousse]

Is anyone watching that new show, Revolution? The last few pages sound like the premise for the show. I haven't watched it yet but wanted too. It's basically what happened if a solar flare took out the worlds technology.

 

[flynnibus]

Sometimes as an electrical engineer it's just best to walk away rather then try to save some people...

 

[Eddie Sotto]

The Long Now Foundation also anticipates issues with electronics as a means of storing information. See the Rosetta Project. An "Adventure thru Inner Space".
http://rosettaproject.org

 

[Eddie Sotto]

Apple does not excite me like it used to. It hasn't for quite a while. New iPad3? Pass. Retina Display Macbook Pro? Pass. iPhone 5? Maybe later. Rumored smaller iPad? Good for them.

Apple seems to have become the follower by enlarging the iPhone screen to deal with HTC and Samsung. I've held it , it's very nice, but so what. Since when has any new device gotten bigger? Refinements vs. breakthroughs. Siri still does not work very well. Frustrating. They have perfected the communication anxiety of calling an overseas call center. Thanks for that.

The last time I was excited was the Unibody souped up 11" Air. Awesome machine.

If you look at these recent operating systems it seems that many articles written about them are showing ways to turn off features so they work like the earlier systems.
Features for their own sake or more PC like to gather an audience. IMO Apple has already lost it's way since Steve Jobs died. Ruining Final Cut Pro to dumb down their software and other questionable decisions like killing off iWeb. This issue with the iOS Maps app seems to me like they could be entering a post Walt "Ron Miller" period. Is being so successful ruining their culture? Are they defending the crown instead of risking more to achieve something new? Is it all about dominance and fighting Google or building the world's greatest products? Does the iCloud and controlling all of your info ironically fulfill the prophetic Apple "1984" Ad? Like Porsche designs SUV's and Sedans that vary on the 911 design, Apple is refining, not reinventing. Yes, they will put a computer into a TV to control media, we'll see gesture GUI, but overall decline says I.

 

[flynnibus]

The evil temptations that arise when you are in a land grab...

Maps - why? Because they don't want to concede any ground to Google.. not because they thought they could best them and serve the customers better by having it. There was no pressure that Google was going to stop developing for iPhone.

Same thing in most of the media stuff - they are doing things to control rather than under the belief of improvement.

It results in so much of your resources being funneled into defensive efforts instead of advancing the product.

They seem to have industrial design still under the same path as before.. but software and UX is falling fast. Just finding WHERE some of these settings are now is becoming a chore. For the first time, you hear stories like 'where is the manual?', etc.

The wheels aren't falling off - but you can already see some of the lack of discipline and the absence of a king FORCING them to find a better way vs 'good enough'. The controlling aspect isn't new, but its becoming more and more unwieldy as Apple grows its scope.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Apple does not excite me like it used to. It hasn't for quite a while. New iPad3? Pass. Retina Display Macbook Pro? Pass. iPhone 5? Maybe later. Rumored smaller iPad? Good for them.

Apple seems to have become the follower by enlarging the iPhone screen to deal with HTC and Samsung. I've held it , it's very nice, but so what. Since when has any new device gotten bigger? Refinements vs. breakthroughs. Siri still does not work very well. Frustrating. They have perfected the communication anxiety of calling an overseas call center. Thanks for that.

The last time I was excited was the Unibody souped up 11" Air. Awesome machine.

If you look at these recent operating systems it seems that many articles written about them are showing ways to turn off features so they work like the earlier systems.
Features for their own sake or more PC like to gather an audience. IMO Apple has already lost it's way since Steve Jobs died. Ruining Final Cut Pro to dumb down their software and other questionable decisions like killing off iWeb. This issue with the iOS Maps app seems to me like they could be entering a post Walt "Ron Miller" period. Is being so successful ruining their culture? Are they defending the crown instead of risking more to achieve something new? Is it all about dominance and fighting Google or building the world's greatest products? Does the iCloud and controlling all of your info ironically fulfill the prophetic Apple "1984" Ad? Like Porsche designs SUV's and Sedans that vary on the 911 design, Apple is refining, not reinventing. Yes, they will put a computer into a TV to control media, we'll see gesture GUI, but overall decline says I.

The rumored "Smaller iPad" was something I heard about as well. My thought... isn't that the iPhone?

I've downloaded iOS6, and it's been a bit buggy (especially the podcast player). There are some things about it that I like, but I don't see enough in the iPhone 5 that will get me to purchase it any earlier than I'm entitled to based on my cell phone contract.

I also tell people that if you don't use an iPod all that much and/or if you're not a regular iTunes user, stick with the Android. You'll get more for your money.

 

[Eddie Sotto]

The evil temptations that arise when you are in a land grab...

Maps - why? Because they don't want to concede any ground to Google.. not because they thought they could best them and serve the customers better by having it. There was no pressure that Google was going to stop developing for iPhone.

Same thing in most of the media stuff - they are doing things to control rather than under the belief of improvement.

It results in so much of your resources being funneled into defensive efforts instead of advancing the product.

They seem to have industrial design still under the same path as before.. but software and UX is falling fast. Just finding WHERE some of these settings are now is becoming a chore. For the first time, you hear stories like 'where is the manual?', etc.

The wheels aren't falling off - but you can already see some of the lack of discipline and the absence of a king FORCING them to find a better way vs 'good enough'. The controlling aspect isn't new, but its becoming more and more unwieldy as Apple grows its scope.

So well said. YES. Thank you.