Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

mickeymiss

Well-Known Member
Everything that involves large amounts of people (or even sometimes small get togethers) will cause spikes of COVID-19. That is particularly a problem in Florida, Texas, California, and Arizona lately. Sure, WDW can open by July 15. However, there will be massive spikes and repercussions from that reopening. There's no avoiding it unless EVERY person who enters is given a test for COVID-19. Not temperature checks. Not a health survey. Not just masks (and since social distancing will still be difficult). Clear tests beforehand and then the denial of anyone testing positive from entering. Even then, because of how the virus shows up in test results, safety is not 100% guaranteed.

That said, no state can test everyone who has an intention of going on a vacation, symptoms or not. Unfortunately, that's not feasible. Thus, the reopening of Disney World, as much as I want it to happen safely, will have its repercussions.
What is the evidence that going somewhere with masks and distancing causes spikes? Please direct me. Most Florida cases could be from pool parties for all we know. They haven't even shared the pattern with us yet besides a few bars that weren't following guidelines. I've heard no mention of grocery stores causing spikes since masks were implemented. There's a difference between trying and not trying. All it takes is groups of people in a highly populated state like Florida who don't take it seriously at all to bring those numbers up. That doesn't automatically implicate any and all businesses.
 

spock8113

Active Member
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I'm surprised they haven't done it yet what with the delayed opening for DisneyLand.
Disney was watching the Corona virus from China way back in January, and maybe sooner, and is one of the reasons they closed all their parks early, fully and all at once. I think they had great insight into the spread from their China viewpoint. I think the Florida Governor may be leaning hard on Disney to open for the mere fact that Osceola County has 20% unemployment rate.
Also, as a non-politics point, Dr. Rebekah Jones has set up her own COVID counting site for Florida based on publicly available data that you may want to look at.
If Disney isn't tuned into this site, they should be.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/

I think for Disney to open their Parks in Florida with the wildly spreading virus would be a huge disservice to the residents and visitors who come from all over the world and I oughta know, I survived it here in New York.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
21% where did you get that number. It's laughably wrong.

Below breaks down nursing home deaths by state -- 43% nationwide, 21% in NY.



Those are the current statistics, with nursing home deaths accounting for about 6,000 out of the 30,000+ deaths in NY.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
All of a sudden it appears that people don’t want to be tested in Florida? Still haven’t heard a good reason why raw tests have fallen this week? That’s what’s weird. Oh...and the 4 day shudown on testing after today.

So we’d really need to see what these numbers look like next week.

I did a read an article from palm beach the other day that had a line such as this “the county conducted an impressive 1,100 tests on Monday...and only had 269 positives”

Huh??? I hope I read those numbers wrong...because both are pathetic.

The average number of tests for Sun-Tues last week was 36,958. This week, Sun-Tues is an average of 43,477. That's a 17.6% increase. We'll have to see if the increase continues. Last week, Wednesday jumped to 57,905. The average for Sun-Sat last week was 55,802. Probably the week over week average is the thing to look at because it eliminates the data dumps from the equation.

I don't know where the article got those numbers from. This Monday, Palm Beach County had 2,589 tests and 436 positive results. You are correct that the 14.4% positivity is not real good.
 

electric

Member
I'm surprised they haven't done it yet what with the delayed opening for DisneyLand.
Disney was watching the Corona virus from China way back in January, and maybe sooner, and is one of the reasons they closed all their parks early, fully and all at once. I think they had great insight into the spread from their China viewpoint. I think the Florida Governor may be leaning hard on Disney to open for the mere fact that Osceola County has 20% unemployment rate.
Also, as a non-politics point, Dr. Rebekah Jones has set up her own COVID counting site for Florida based on publicly available data that you may want to look at.
If Disney isn't tuned into this site, they should be.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/

I think for Disney to open their Parks in Florida with the wildly spreading virus would be a huge disservice to the residents and visitors who come from all over the world and I oughta know, I survived it here in New York.
Disney didnt delay Disneyland at all
 

xdan0920

Think for yourselfer
Below breaks down nursing home deaths by state -- 43% nationwide, 21% in NY.



Those are the current statistics, with nursing home deaths accounting for about 6,000 out of the 30,000+ deaths in NY.
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA.

New York changed the reporting, so you only count toward a nursing home fatality if you actually die in the nursing home. If you get transferred to a hospital then die, you don't count. You have to know that. The real count is AT least double that. Come on.
 

xdan0920

Think for yourselfer
The average number of tests for Sun-Tues last week was 36,958. This week, Sun-Tues is an average of 43,477. That's a 17.6% increase. We'll have to see if the increase continues. Last week, Wednesday jumped to 57,905. The average for Sun-Sat last week was 55,802. Probably the week over week average is the thing to look at because it eliminates the data dumps from the equation.

I don't know where the article got those numbers from. This Monday, Palm Beach County had 2,589 tests and 436 positive results. You are correct that the 14.4% positivity is not real good.
How many total tests has Florida done? Isn't there going to be some kind of breaking point for testing where you run out of people to test?
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
The average number of tests for Sun-Tues last week was 36,958. This week, Sun-Tues is an average of 43,477. That's a 17.6% increase. We'll have to see if the increase continues. Last week, Wednesday jumped to 57,905. The average for Sun-Sat last week was 55,802. Probably the week over week average is the thing to look at because it eliminates the data dumps from the equation.

I don't know where the article got those numbers from. This Monday, Palm Beach County had 2,589 tests and 436 positive results. You are correct that the 14.4% positivity is not real good.
So it’s data dumps?
That does make sense...especially in the uniqueness of Florida. Still think logically the number of tests would be going way up now.

I think it was Saturday or Sunday numbers I saw them quoting on Monday...the palm beach journal I believe.

There take on the data was still crazy...that rate is way too high and needs to come down pronto or this stuff may get “real”. We are in the dead of summer...though “the heat will kill it” was of course dead wrong, viruses do tend not to transfer as easily in the hot weather. Not a lot of sniffles on the beaches.

If this is all indoor contamination in HVAC...you know what that means?
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
FWIW, most of NY Is just as open as Florida now. Are they idiots too?

I think you're missing the key differences -- NY waited to open until they hit key metrics, they didn't open until the viral infection rate was extremely low, until hospital capacity is the region was sufficient low, until they had contact tracers hired. They also mandated masks. Further, NYC is still far from open. And the areas that are "open" are still heavily restricted. Malls, Theaters, gyms, etc, are still closed through the state.

So the key differences: NY waited until the infection and death rate dropped substantially before re-opening.. Florida re-opened without waiting for cases to drop. NY mandated masks, Florida hasn't. The higher infection areas of NY are STILL mostly closed, where Florida is open.
For example, Manhattan still doesn't allow any indoor dining -- and they had only 71 positive infections yesterday. Is Florida shutting down indoor dining in regions with 71 infections/1 million people?

Basically, NY is still far less open than Florida -- despite having a fraction of the cases that Florida has. If NY went back up to 5,000+ infections per day... NY would hopefully have the wisdom to start shutting down again.
 

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
Unfortunately yes.

The “you can’t get it again” doesn’t seem to be playing out from a research study stand point.
As of the last time this question came up in one of our hospital meetings, most of the current research and expert opinion seems to indicate that those who recover have at least some level of immunity to reinfection. People have re-tested positive after recovering, (using the viral RNA PCR method), but on closer testing for viral culture, they haven't yielded viable samples. What is probably being detected here is residual crud that hasn't been completely cleared following the initial infection.

But of course, like everything else with this emerging virus, that opinion could change at anytime as more research is done.
 
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