Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[JohnD]

The snark isn't necessary. We can go through each of these things in detail - explaining what aspects are false - but at the end of the day, no, there is no systemic underlying problem in the way testing is being conducted. It is, IMO, deeply saddening to see how social media amplifies false and misleading information to such an extent that we no longer trust the medical and public health communities to be acting with integrity.

The systemic underlying problem in testing is much simpler. There are not enough tests and people aren't tested enough. The case and death counts are under counts, not over counts.

But you're saying there is nothing wrong with "errors" but at the same time lament social media. I can agree with you on the social media part. Like, how these "errors" are manipulated to suit agendas. Even in your case, you are ready to explain away the "errors" but not so much the inflated numbers that are used to promote policies such as keeping schools shut, mandating masks, going back into lockdown, etc. But tell me again why these "errors" don't matter so much.

 

[October82]

But you're saying there is nothing wrong with "errors" but at the same time lament social media.

I am saying that the "errors" in the linked post and many of the others do not change the statistics of Covid. When managing a complicated and evolving situation, mistakes happen. We should learn what those mistakes are and determine if they are systemic or not. All of the examples mentioned in this thread are either isolated mistakes, completely false or otherwise do not impact the overall picture. None of them remotely compare to the problems introduced by the lack of adequate testing.

I can agree with you on the social media part. Like, how these "errors" are manipulated to suit agendas. Even in your case, you are ready to explain away the "errors" but not so much the inflated numbers that are used to promote policies such as keeping schools shut, mandating masks, going back into lockdown, etc. But tell me again why these "errors" don't matter so much.

The statistics are not compiled by people with agendas, they are compiled by medical and public health scientists. The numbers aren't inflated. We know this because we can measure how badly we are doing with testing and through comparisons with other countries. Understanding how testing works, how errors happen, and what effects they have isn't "explaining away" inconvenient information, it is understanding what the data does and does not tell you.

But tell me again why these "errors" don't matter so much.

If you have one in particular you'd like to talk about, let's start there. If you want to talk in general, the simple answer is that we are talking about many thousands or millions of tests being done. The only problems that matter for the statistics are those that also occur many thousands or millions of times.

I'll also just add that there are ways to quantify all of these effects. If you have a technical or mathematical background, I'm happy to go into the details. We can also look at the scientific literature where people use this data to understand the epidemiology of the disease, and where major inconsistencies would also be easily discovered.

 

[JoeCamel]

For all of you thinking the positives are being over reported I ask that you carefully read the statement below the graph. How many double negatives are being counted?????

 

[lazyboy97o]

Just remember.....it was deemed unsafe to open Disneyland

It has been deemed unsafe to open Gröna Lund and Liseberg.

 

[BrianLo]

Cases
June 22nd 7-day average; 3270
July 22nd 7-day average; 11116
Change: 340%

Deaths
June 22nd 7-day average; 33
July 22nd 7-day average; 118
Change: 357%

Funny how that works?

Meanwhile a poster is gleefully declaring that ‘things have maybe even declined in the last month’?

That’s not spin, it’s called lying.

 

[JohnD]

Which is what that conspiracy you shared is.

But back to the actual numbers, were you able to come up with the statistical impact of those "300 labs" yet?

Seriously? You're really okay with 300 labs all reporting 100% positive? And that doesn't matter to you? Now take 300 labs and multiply that nationwide. I bet if I said 300 precincts all reported 100% for the same candidate you wouldn't be so cavalier about the statistical impact. You would, rightly, want to know what is going on. And that is my point. Not "Oh well. It doesn't matter very much statistically so why should I care if numerous labs report 100% positive cases". No, I would want to know the exact number of cases. I don't give a **** whether it has a "statistical impact" on the reporting or not. I want correct numbers.

 

[kong1802]

Seriously? You're really okay with 300 labs all reporting 100% positive? And that doesn't matter to you? Now take 300 labs and multiply that nationwide. I bet if I said 300 precincts all reported 100% for the same candidate you wouldn't be so cavalier about the statistical impact. You would, rightly, want to know what is going on.

That's a long way of saying "No, I don't know the statistical impact".

If 300 precincts with a total of 4000 voters all went one way, no, I wouldn't throw out the results of 5 million because of those 4000.

Sure, find out what happened, but not start down some weird conspiracy hole because of it.

Which is why the statistical impact has to be taken into consideration. Once you do that, you'll be able to better rationalize and prioritize.

 

[JohnD]

That's a long way of saying "No, I don't know the statistical impact".

Which is a red herring. How about reporting accurate numbers?

 

[kong1802]

Which is a red herring. How about reporting accurate numbers?

Again, you are falling for headlines and conspiracies.

You can't or shouldn't throw out 270k positives because you think 4k positives are incorrect.

Math has to win the day sometimes.

 

[JohnD]

Again, you are falling for headlines and conspiracies.

You can't or shouldn't throw out 270k positives because you think 4k positives are incorrect.

Math has to win the day sometimes.

If labs can't be trusted to provide accurate results, then "statistical impact" is meaningless. Again, try that logic on voting precincts and see how long that line of argument lasts.

 

[kong1802]

If labs can't be trusted to provide accurate results, then "statistical impact" is meaningless. Again, try that logic on voting precincts and see how long that line of argument lasts.

So you are throwing out the results of 300,000 tests because some labs didn't report negatives?

Context isn't important? The fact that those labs reported 4,000 positives out of the 270,000 positives doesn't factor in for you?

Would you throw out all the results if a lab that tested 5 people only reported one of those tests?

Yes, let's apply it to voting precincts.

Let's say a precinct with 100 registered voters fails to even report 1 of those 100 votes. Do you throw out the entire election result if candidate A won by 1 million votes? You would say, "Stop, we gotta do it all over again"?

Math has to win.

 

[schuelma]

If labs can't be trusted to provide accurate results, then "statistical impact" is meaningless. Again, try that logic on voting precincts and see how long that line of argument lasts.

Ok, for the sake of argument let's posit that Florida labs are woefully screwing up testing. And the reported positives are actually much lower.

How do you explain the death count, that is rapidly increasing?

Is that part of the worldwide conspiracy as well?

 

[Miss Bella]

So are 173 deaths reported in a single day with no discernable downward trend. But yea, let's worry more about anecdotes and try to downplay numbers.

Regardless of deaths putting the wrong name on a lab specimen has a lot of consequences for all parties involved. If that happens in a hospital setting it could have a very bad outcome.

 

[kong1802]

Ok, for the sake of argument let's posit that Florida labs are woefully screwing up testing. And the reported positives are actually much lower.

How do you explain the death count, that is rapidly increasing?

Is that part of the worldwide conspiracy as well?

Didn't you see the formula?

It's all a conspiracy. Can't trust any of the numbers. All lies. Only a special few know the real truth......

 

[JoeCamel]

If labs can't be trusted to provide accurate results, then "statistical impact" is meaningless. Again, try that logic on voting precincts and see how long that line of argument lasts.

Plenty of inaccurate negatives added to the numbers. They will never be accurate, just roll with it and feel for the deaths no matter when added, they were people too.

 

[chrisvee]

RNC convention in Jacksonville canceled. Does this bode anything for rest of FL?

 

[legwand77]

Somehow discussing actual numbers is spin, but one can just make odd ball claims with no basis and that's the "truth".

Interesting times...

now that is funny

 

[legwand77]

https://cbs12.com/news/local/i-team-deaths-incorrectly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-palm-beach-county

 

[hopemax]

https://cbs12.com/news/local/i-team-deaths-incorrectly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-palm-beach-county

Did they also review all the deaths that occurred, that were not counted as COVID to verify that none of them had COVID listed as a contributing factor, that weren't included in the spreadsheet? Because erroneous info can work both ways.

But taking this at face value, of the 581 deaths they looked at, they found 8 erroneous listed. So 1.38% Most data collection comes with a "margin of error." I would think 1.38% would fall into that, and doesn't change the "nature of the beast."

 

[legwand77]

Another bit of good news for Miami Dade , record drop in number of Covid net hospitalizations in over two weeks. again more kudos to the hospital staffs