Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

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legwand77

Well-Known Member
havoc315 said:
Any movement in a lower direction is good.
But, things like Disney really shouldn’t be open unless positivity is below 0.5%. 12% is 25 times too high.

Increased testing is great news. But unfortunately not useful when most results are a week delayed and there is no effective contact tracing.

This is the way it’s supposed to work, to have a functioning economy.
A state the size of Florida should be testing 200,000 per day — testing of employees, students, random testing of government workers.
With under 0.5% positivity — under 1,000 positives per day. Results within 24 hours. Those 1,000 people isolated. Contact tracing goes into effect — so of those 1,000 people... 5,000-10,000 additional contacts get self-isolated and tested.
This becomes daily... and it would eventually drive infection to virtually zero.

The countries that are successfully re-opening schools, like Germany, South Korea, Denmark — this was their formula for doing so.
You drive down infection extremely low— then you test, trace, isolate massively — which keeps the infections extremely low.
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Agree with all that, but have a different opinion of course on Disney opening, IMHO I think it is fine and risk is very low at the parks with the new procedures they have put in place. They shouldn't lift those until the postivity gets down to <1% at that point you are pretty much back to normal.
 
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legwand77

Well-Known Member
schuelma said:
So just for the record, you think average deaths per week are going to start declining now?
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No , as I mentioned a couple of days ago probably going to go up a little for a while and then begin to drop off slowly, but who really knows. Especially with all the data noise on deaths and cases. This week alone had a large data dump of deaths nationwide. Over 3000 of the 6000 deaths reported via state dashboards this week occurred before May 2nd. This is mostly likely due to the probable Covid deaths adjustment. Just showing how noisy the data is
 
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D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
chrisvee said:
I’m very sorry to hear that.

Thank goodness we can at least reduce the likelihood of dying from flu with annual shots as well as the benefits of herd immunity.
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True. The biggest issue with the flu is how many strains there are. Hopefully when the COVID-19 vaccine is available, it will protect against all mutations that are out there so it can be irradicated.
 
BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
legwand77 said:
Show me where am I making stuff up, average age of the positive test has gone down and treatments are getting better. a good bit of the deaths are back dated it is all in the Florida DOH report
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Unfortunately - the average age of positive cases was already down in June when these are being back-dated to. In fact the median is trending back towards 40's from mid-30's. It also only represents a median. If cases increased near exponentially (which they have over the last few weeks) and the median remained unchanged; then all age groups have increased. Low and high risk.

There has not be substantial change to treatment in the last month. There has actually not been substantial change to treatment in general apart from more standardization of what generally does not work. Patients are still being largely treated with the same protocols for ARDS that pre-date this pandemic.

Really the only things we've really learned about more 'recently' is some of the weird late outcomes, particularly for Peds like MIS-C and Chilblains.
 
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havoc315

Well-Known Member
legwand77 said:
Agree with all that, but have a different opinion of course on Disney opening, IMHO I think it is fine and risk is very low at the parks with the new procedures they have put in place. They shouldn't lift those until the postivity gets down to <1% at that point you are pretty much back to normal.
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No. There is an effect known as “attractive nuisance.”
The park itself might be very safe with restrictions. But by being open, it’s encouraging unsafe and unnecessary travel. People on buses, planes, Ubers. More people eating in near-property restaurants that may not be following procedures as carefully.
And people cross-contaminating regions as they move... from south Florida to central... central Florida on a plane to Chicago, etc.

As to “normal”— that’s when positivity rate way under 0.1%... In NY, we are now under 1% and we still are correctly far far from normal. Restaurants still at 50% capacity, indoor dining still prohibited in NYC, mass gatherings still prohibited, theaters still closed.
1% positivity (at current testing levels) is still way way too high for “normal.”
 
Goofyernmost

Goofyernmost

Well-Known Member
In an attempt to answer the question and not become the CDC branch of wild guessing annex, I don't think Disney will close again unless one or two things happen. The first and most important would be the state demanding another lock-down which might be a god send for Disney if the number of people they are attracting are not either significant enough to cover the additional expenses incurred by being open or have made it an even bigger loss to be open. It's all the bottom line. Never forget that. Some cash flow it usually very helpful, but Disney didn't exactly go into this Pandemic on the verge of bankruptcy.
 
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TrojanUSC

Well-Known Member
Goofyernmost said:
In an attempt to answer the question and not become the CDC branch of wild guessing annex, I don't think Disney will close again unless one or two things happen. The first and most important would be the state demanding another lock-down which might be a god send for Disney if the number of people they are attracting are not either significant enough to cover the additional expenses incurred by being open or have made it an even bigger loss to be open. It's all the bottom line. Never forget that. Some cash flow it usually very helpful, but Disney didn't exactly go into this Pandemic on the verge of bankruptcy.
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What's the second?
 
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havoc315

Well-Known Member
legwand77 said:
No , as I mentioned a couple of days ago probably going to go up a little for a while and then begin to drop off slowly, but who really knows. Especially with all the data noise on deaths and cases. This week alone had a large data dump of deaths nationwide. Over 3000 of the 6000 deaths reported via state dashboards this week occurred before May 2nd. This is mostly likely due to the probable Covid deaths adjustment. Just showing how noisy the data is
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Critically... you’re missing half the point.
Yes— many of the deaths being reported now actually happened a long time ago.

But you’re missing the key point — many of the deaths occurring today may not be reported until a long time from now.
Florida might actually be suffering 300 deaths per day right now — but we won’t fully realize it until 2 months from now.

Based on the trends we are seeing, the whole month of July will likely be very ugly for death reporting. And if infections and hospitalizations don’t start majorly declining soon, August could be even worse.
 
Andrew C

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
lazyboy97o

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
havoc315 said:
Critically... you’re missing half the point.
Yes— many of the deaths being reported now actually happened a long time ago.

But you’re missing the key point — many of the deaths occurring today may not be reported until a long time from now.
Florida might actually be suffering 300 deaths per day right now — but we won’t fully realize it until 2 months from now.

Based on the trends we are seeing, the whole month of July will likely be very ugly for death reporting. And if infections and hospitalizations don’t start majorly declining soon, August could be even worse.
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Remember when deaths reported per day didn’t matter? Inevitably these people “won’t count” because they’re old, were going to die soon, made bad life decisions, were unhealthy, and so on and so forth.
 
Ldno

Ldno

Well-Known Member
I honestly feel that unless they declare That disney is a proven hot spot for the virus, i feel that they will not close again, business don’t really care about the numbers because they are the ones enacting their own guidelines so who knows at this point
 
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Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Ldno said:
I honestly feel that unless they declare That disney is a proven hot spot for the virus, i feel that they will not close again, business don’t really care about the numbers because they are the ones enacting their own guidelines so who knows at this point
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and if people don’t feel safe they won’t come. If the popular opinion is that Disney is not safe no one is going to book those empty hotel rooms, and even worse people like me are going to cancel their trips. If the company cannot cannot convince people they have their safety in mind, they are going to keep their own council which will be far more conservative.
 
Kamikaze

Kamikaze

Well-Known Member
Touchdown said:
and if people don’t feel safe they won’t come. If the popular opinion is that Disney is not safe no one is going to book those empty hotel rooms, and even worse people like me are going to cancel their trips. If the company cannot cannot convince people they have their safety in mind, they are going to keep their own council which will be far more conservative.
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If I could (easily) drive there, I would consider it a lot more. But the 20 hour one way trek limits that by a lot.

I have more confidence in Disney doing everything they can than most of the small businesses. And if they are enforcing masks 100% then its really a non-issue. But going through the airport and sitting on the plane - not ideal. So even though I consider Disney safe, I won't be attending for the foreseeable future.
 
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