I didn’t believe it a year ago...but analysts were saying they thought Apple and Disney were gonna have a hard time with Netflix...
I think they’re right. Don’t doubt Netflix.
How long till Comcast buys them? Put money on it
I see Netflix as having peaked at the moment. I actually think they may see a dip with D+. Netflix does have a content problem. They are more concerned with volume of content than quality. Currently, they have a cancellation problem - many of their originals are serialized stories, but they cancel them after 2-3 seasons, leaving the story unresolved. So it makes it hard to invest in a show that will likely never finish. Happens once or twice, you deal. But as it starts to happen more and more, it gets really annoying. AS far as Comcast buying them, unless Netflix loses market cap, it's not going to happen. Comcast is pretty debt-heavy and doesn't have the resources to buy out Netflix.
D+ has a very interesting slate of new shows - the Marvel content, the Star Wars content, stuff for the kids (my son is interested in Mosters at Work)... It also has the whole back catalog of Disney movies. Now, we own a bunch on blu-ray/DVD, but maybe about a third. There's all the deep cuts that we don't own that will now be available to us - and that's interesting to us.
Apple TV+ has a problem, in my view. They have no back catalog. To be a successful streaming service, you need a) compelling original programming that people want to watch, and b) a significant back catalog of movies. Otherwise, it feels like you are paying for little. Apple TV+ is launching with too little content. It needs to make some distribution deals to get other shows/movies from other providers to fill out its catalog. Keep in mind that the most popular content on Netflix is The Office and Friends.
My wife and I were discussing our streaming services the other day. We are cord cutters, don't have cable TV. Currently we have:
Netfix
Amazon Prime (because of our Prime subscription, not because we subscribed for the video)
Hulu
CBS All Access (for Star Trek)
YouTube TV (local channels, cabl;e channels, etc.)
We signed up for the D23 Bun\dle, as there's a lot of shows that are interesting to us, and the back catlog of Disney films/TV also interests us. (Classic DuckTails? Yes please).
Once November comes, we are likely to drop Netflix because of the aformentioned cancellation problem, and there's not a lot of cntent that interests us ATM. We've watched most of the shows there we care about, a bunch of others we started watching were cancelled, and the Disney/Marvel content that we used it for is no longer a thing.
We also will likely cancel YouTube TV. While we use it occasionally, we generally use our streaming services a lot more. Right now, the biggest use for us of YouTube TV is Mickey Mouse Clubhouse for our 2 year old. So Disney+ removes that carrot.
So not counting Prime (because we likely wouldn't have it if not for free shipping), we'll end up with
Disney+
Hulu (no commercials)
CBS All Access (no commercials)
So for streaming, we'll be paying $25/month, for pretty much all the content we need. If something comes out for Netflix that we want to watch, we may subscribe for a month or two, then cancel. Same goes for any other streaming service. And we'll probably reevaluate regularly based on our current viewing habits.
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