Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid

[LittleBuford]

Ok…I’ll be the bad guy (my typecast):
The problem is proportionality.

As in TLM…for instance…what is the total AA female population in just the US? Maybe 6.5-7%?

Good side: a lot more that that saw it/were interested across that “line”. The down side: a lot of the “other” people reflexively veer away from it.

You seem to be saying that casting Halle Bailey was somehow going too far. I won’t call you a bad guy, because I don’t think you are, but I do find your line of thinking pretty egregious.

 

[MrPromey]

Sorry if you disagree with my example, but to me they are the same and a good comparison.

Studio A produced content. Streamer A (same company) pays for content. Money is still being exchanged within the same company for said content.

The fact that said content (in the case of Netflix) never went or had limited theatrical release is irrelevant for the conversation of streaming paying for said content. In fact one could say that Netflix is more at risk here since they don't have a wide theatrical release, but that is a different conversation.

As brought up before the streamers, whether Disney or Netflix, has to pay a "fair" price for content even created within the same company as there are still payouts for creators tied to that content.

The piece that none of us really know is what Netflix pays out for a first run movie. However with the 5 year deal between Netflix and Sony, rumored between $1B-3B, one has to assume given the number of movies that it ends up costing Netflix at least $100M for some of those movies, sometimes more sometimes less.

So that brings us back to TLM, is $100M D+ is paying a fair price, when looking at the Netflix/Sony deal one could say yes. Again doesn't matter whether that is being paid by internal streamer or external streamer, its still being paid.

See? You're completely changing the argument.

You brought up Netflix paying $100 million to make a movie they own all the rights to to justify/compare the price D+ was paying for JUST the secondary revenue stream like they were both one and the same.

If Disney Co. had paid $100 million dollars to produce TLM and then not spent at least another $100 million in marketing for it, this thread would not be 190 pages long.

You've pivoted to trying to talk about who is and who isn't making money and who's at risk and whatever and as I mentioned in my last post, that's got nothing to do with the original point you were trying to make when trying to lump Netflix's funding of original content into the same boat as picking up only the streaming rights for TLM.

Again, that's why I say a more fair apples-to-apples argument would be to compare something like Gray Man to Pinocchio which was made for the service it is on but when I said that, you went off on a rant about dismissing the value of streaming.

 

[Disney Irish]

That’s a “fallacy of straw” on the debate stage…

You’ll find no one more pro-labor around here than me…call me Engels….

But on the corporate side…they’re in no way happy about this kinda “creative accounting”. They’re loses.

Two kinds a people:
1. People that know this
2. People who know it but won’t admit it

No one is claiming there isn't loses, its the where the loses are happening that is being debated.

1. TLM will lose money from theatrical. That is pretty much agreed.
2. It will however recoup any remaining loses from PVOD and D+, that shouldn't be debated at this point (even though it appears to be).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You seem to be saying that casting Halle Bailey was somehow going too far. I won’t call you a bad guy, because I don’t think you are, but I do find your line of thinking pretty egregious.

I don’t have an opinion about any one component of the project…including the casting.

Overall…they didn’t achieve their intended goals from the press box.

I find your psychoanalysis of me egregious…because it’s wrong. You probably haven’t noticed…but I analyze all things Disney - too much - from an array of vectors. There’s good things to find…there’s bad. There’s success and there’s failure…
In real time. With my feet on the ground.

I find anyone not willing to discuss - with civility - that it could be Many things in varying degrees or slices not nearly as enlightened as they think. Real progress takes serious, honest discussion and it always has. And it’s painful at times…but you never get to the light at the end of the tunnel without it.

And the “Hallee” crap. She’s an actress/singer…maybe she’ll be the next big thing…or nothing.
Since may…the BOTD given to her as an unknown is way outsized what is appropriate. Move off that.

She’ll be back…or she won’t. Daisy Ridley vibe.

 

[Tha Realest]

No one is claiming there isn't loses, its the where the loses are happening that is being debated.

1. TLM will lose money from theatrical. That is pretty much agreed.
2. It will however recoup any remaining loses from PVOD and D+, that shouldn't be debated at this point (even though it appears to be).

This doesn’t happen in isolation.

You’re missing the point that a company has already lost millions on a project, and is now obligated to spend another $100M on it. That’s $100M that could have been allotted to other projects or films or series that is now encumbered, with no guarantee it’ll drive a commensurate number of new or retained subscriptions.

You think this somehow puts the movie in the profitable category. I believe it’s just about to become a more costly albatross.

 

[MisterPenguin]

is now obligated to spend another $100M on it

Which it can from the billions that comes in from D+ subscription.

Just like the money coming in from subscriptions pays an outside studio for Bluey.

 

[Disney Irish]

See? You're completely changing the argument.

You brought up Netflix and their original content that they have full exclusive first-run rights and ownership of to justify/compare the price D+ was paying for JUST the secondary revenue stream like they were both one and the same.

If Disney Co. had paid $100 million dollars to produce TLM and then not spent at least another $100 million in marketing for it, this thread would not be 190 pages long.

You've pivoted to trying to talk about who is and who isn't making money and who's at risk and whatever and as I mentioned in my last post, that's got nothing to do with the original point you were trying to make when trying to lump Netflix's funding or original content into the same boat as picking up only the streaming rights for TLM.

Again, that's why I say a more fair apples-to-apples argument would be to compare something like Gray Man to Pinocchio which was made for the service it is on but when I said that, you went off on a rant about dismissing the value of streaming.

I still believe its a fair apple-to-apples comparison, its fine if you disagree.

I provided the Sony/Netflix deal as it shows what these movies can make for a company by putting it on an external steamer, as it would never be a single movie but a broader deal. But one can extrapolate out that in that deal is a $100M movie like TLM.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

No one is claiming there isn't loses, its the where the loses are happening that is being debated.

1. TLM will lose money from theatrical. That is pretty much agreed.

Ok. Progress. Two months of “it will make money” finally has died on the battlefield. The formulas that TP and others have pointed out repeatedly aren’t in dispute. You know if a film is gonna cover in 2 weeks…and barring curve balls actually 3-5 days.

2. It will however recoup any remaining loses from PVOD and D+, that shouldn't be debated at this point (even though it appears to be).

Nope…for the 500th time…that’s wading up ancillary sales/profits. Not part of budgeting.

You know who is gonna cover their losses like any minute now? Maybe already has?

…and she did it the old fashion.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Which it can from the billions that comes in from D+ subscription.

Just like the money coming in from subscriptions pays an outside studio for Bluey.

Oh boy…

The billions aren’t covering content. Try to keep up.

 

[MrPromey]

I still believe its a fair apple-to-apples comparison, its fine if you disagree.

I provided the Sony/Netflix deal as it shows what these movies can make for a company by putting it on an external steamer, as it would never be a single movie but a broader deal. But one can extrapolate out that in that deal is a $100M movie like TLM.

Well, I’m saying the sky is blue but like, that’s just my opinion, man.

 

[LittleBuford]

I don’t have an opinion about any one component of the project…including the casting.

Overall…they didn’t achieve their intended goals from the press box.

I find your psychoanalysis of me egregious…because it’s wrong. You probably haven’t noticed…but I analyze all things Disney - too much - from an array of vectors. There’s good things to find…there’s bad. There’s success and there’s failure…
In real time. With my feet on the ground.

I find anyone not willing to discuss - with civility - that it could be Many things in varying degrees or slices not nearly as enlightened as they think. Real progress takes serious, honest discussion and it always have. And it’s painful at times…but you never get to the light at the end of the tunnel without it.

Forget your self if you believe you’re on the high ground.

And the “Hallee” crap. She’s an actress/singer…maybe she’ll be the next big thing…or nothing.
Since may…the BOTD given to her as an unknown is way outsized what is appropriate. Move off that.

She be back…or she won’t. Daisy Ridley vibe.

I don’t understand most of your reply.

And I didn’t psychoanalyse you. You’re the one who referred to the “problem of proportionality” immediately before giving the percentage of African American women, prefacing it all with “I’ll be the bad guy”. I’m not sure how else one could interpret what you said. I took you quite literally at your word.

 

[Disney Irish]

Ok. Progress. Two months of “it will make money” finally has died on the battlefield. The formulas that TP and others have pointed out repeatedly aren’t in dispute. You know if a film is gonna cover in 2 weeks…and barring curve balls actually 3-5 days.

That hasn't been disputed for awhile now, but ok.

What has been disputed and appears to continue to be disputed is TLM recouping money post theatrical.

 

[Chi84]

I don’t have an opinion about any one component of the project…including the casting.

Overall…they didn’t achieve their intended goals from the press box.

I find your psychoanalysis of me egregious…because it’s wrong. You probably haven’t noticed…but I analyze all things Disney - too much - from an array of vectors. There’s good things to find…there’s bad. There’s success and there’s failure…
In real time. With my feet on the ground.

I find anyone not willing to discuss - with civility - that it could be Many things in varying degrees or slices not nearly as enlightened as they think. Real progress takes serious, honest discussion and it always has. And it’s painful at times…but you never get to the light at the end of the tunnel without it.

And the “Hallee” crap. She’s an actress/singer…maybe she’ll be the next big thing…or nothing.
Since may…the BOTD given to her as an unknown is way outsized what is appropriate. Move off that.

She be back…or she won’t. Daisy Ridley vibe.

Well that made no sense. But it sure did deflect attention from the assertion that your earlier post was egregious, which by the way, it was.

 

[Disney Irish]

Well, I’m saying the sky is blue but like, that’s just my opinion, man.

Well the sky isn't really blue, but that is a whole different conversation.....

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don’t understand most of your reply.

And I didn’t psychoanalyse you. You’re the one who referred to the “problem of proportionality” immediately before giving the percentage of African American women, prefacing it all with “I’ll be the bad guy”. I’m not sure how else one could interpret what you said. I took you quite literally at your word.

Yes. And I don’t like to even talk about this…but it’s likely still a thing…

By flipping the casting…they MAY have alienated the mass audience to a degree by making a more narrow “focus”…even if it wasn’t their intent. Heart in the right place…head not quite in the same.

I think the pedantic remakes of every 1980’s vhs cover is the real issue with mermaid - to be fair. I think that’s the main stumbling block. It’s tired and Disneys “labels” strategy is unraveling.

But is racism some of it?

Well here’s my two questions:
1. Is the world racist?
2. Is the United States the most wealthy, racist country this side of the Appian Way?

…both are rhetorical.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That hasn't been disputed for awhile now, but ok.

What has been disputed and appears to continue to be disputed is TLM recouping money post theatrical.

You can go back a month ago and find many “once all the receipts are in…” posts.

…but I’m old and I can’t remember just who it was?

And again…selling toys or DVDs (not gonna sell much of either as some have the dreaded yellow stickers on them) at target is not “recouping”…it’s the box office draining the products division.

 

[Disney Irish]

You can go back a month ago and find many “once all the receipts are in…” posts.

…but I’m old and I can’t remember just who it was?

And that was awhile ago.....

As I said the theatrical loss hasn't been disputed for awhile now.

What has been disputed and appears to continue to be disputed, which honestly shouldn't be, is TLM recouping money post theatrical.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well the sky isn't really blue, but that is a whole different conversation.....

the sky is gonna be “pink” at WDI when Bob starts slashing the headcount..

…don’t discount they may finally close it/go contract based.

That’s a doozy for another day

 

[LittleBuford]

Yes. And I don’t like to even talk about this…but it’s likely still a thing…

By flipping the casting…they MAY have alienated the mass audience to a degree by making a more narrow “focus”…even if it wasn’t their intent. Heart in the right place…head not quite in the same.

They may indeed. You seem to view that as a mistake on their part. I don’t.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And that was awhile ago.....

As I said the theatrical loss hasn't been disputed for awhile now.

What has been disputed and appears to continue to be disputed, which honestly shouldn't be, is TLM recouping money post theatrical.

If it was past June 5th…it was still dead in the water. It definitely was.

TP2000 was right on that. It’s math and a pattern. Math works.