Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid

[doctornick]

Fact is D+ is losing money every quarter, so more money is leaving then is coming in.

Right. And most of that “money leaving D+” is because they are paying for content… in many cases paying other divisions of Disney. If Disney didn’t do the proper accounting for payments between divisions then D+ would already be “profitable” as a service. The reason it still losing money is because it is actually responsible for paying for its content.

 

[LSLS]

The real issue is what do movies normally get for streaming rights? If little mermaid got sold to Netflix, how much would it get paid? If it's usually around the same price, then its not some move to prop the studios up some. If it's way less, then there may be a case.

 

[TP2000]

But TLM will have other pay windows: digital download, DVD bluray, and then D+, which is taking in money so that it can pay to have TLM on its streamer to entice people to remain subscribed.

The concept of DVD/Bluray sales being a profit center for these movies who fail to make a profit in their theatrical runs comes up occasionally, so I went and looked...

Here's what Aladdin did in DVD/Bluray sales after its $1 Billion box office back in 2019: $44 Million. While $44 Million is better than a stick in the eye, surely that's not considered a hugely important profit driver. $44 Million is about half the box office that Aladdin did in South Korea in '19.

And Bluray sales are declining further every year. Last summer Minions: Rise of Gru did $940 Million at the global box office, but has only sold $18 Million in DVD/Blurays.

If Mermaid ends up with roughly half of Aladdin's 2019 box office, and you account for four more years of rapid technological change and crashing sales for Blurays, I can't imagine they'll sell more than about $15 Million in Mermaid Blurays in the next calendar year. Probably only $10 Million is the safer bet.

Again, not that an extra $15 Million is a pain in the butt, but let's realize that Bluray sales are rather small now and getting smaller every year. And the manufacture of DVD players for home use is not a growth industry.

 

[BuddyThomas]

With a release in 2024, uhhhh no. TLM will be a faded memory.

Nope. Sorry. Little Mermaid will have multiple award nominations in 2024. Production design, sound, visual effects, original song, possibly more. It will mot be a faded memory.

 

[lazyboy97o]

The real issue is what do movies normally get for streaming rights? If little mermaid got sold to Netflix, how much would it get paid? If it's usually around the same price, then its not some move to prop the studios up some. If it's way less, then there may be a case.

Paying too little is the sort of thing that gets you sued by the people who are owed money based on a movie’s performance.

 

[Disney Irish]

The real issue is what do movies normally get for streaming rights? If little mermaid got sold to Netflix, how much would it get paid? If it's usually around the same price, then its not some move to prop the studios up some. If it's way less, then there may be a case.

Netflix pays between $100M-$250M per film. It fluctuates based on the film, but that is the range.

For example they paid $200M for both Red Notice and Gray Man in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

So Disney playing a similar range for their studio content is not outrageous and falls in-line with the rest of the industry.

 

[Tha Realest]

The concept of DVD/Bluray sales being a profit center for these movies who fail to make a profit in their theatrical runs comes up occasionally, so I went and looked...

Here's what Aladdin did in DVD/Bluray sales after its $1 Billion box office back in 2019: $44 Million. While $44 Million is better than a stick in the eye, surely that's not considered a hugely important profit driver. $44 Million is about half the box office that Aladdin did in South Korea in '19.

View attachment 730912

And Bluray sales are declining further every year. Last summer Minions: Rise of Gru did $940 Million at the global box office, but has only sold $18 Million in DVD/Blurays.

If Mermaid ends up with roughly half of Aladdin's 2019 box office, and you account for four more years of rapid technological change and crashing sales for Blurays, I can't imagine they'll sell more than about $15 Million in Mermaid Blurays in the next calendar year. Probably only $10 Million is the safer bet.

Again, not that an extra $15 Million is a pain in the butt, but let's realize that Bluray sales are rather small now and getting smaller every year. And the manufacture of DVD players for home use is not a growth industry.

That $15M doesn’t spring out of nowhere. Those also have attendant costs.

 

[Tha Realest]

Netflix pays between $100M-$250M per film. It fluctuates based on the film, but that is the range.

For example they paid $200M for both Red Notice and Gray Man in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

So Disney playing a similar range for their studio content is not outrageous and falls in-line with the rest of the industry.

False equivalence. Netflix produced that film in its entirety, and streaming only films are often more expensive because the stars don’t get back end percentage.

In this instance, TLM to D+ would be the equivalent of Netflix licensing a movie like Silence of the Lambs. Are they paying $200M / film to license it?

 

[LSLS]

Netflix pays between $100M-$250M per film. It fluctuates based on the film, but that is the range.

For example they paid $200M for both Red Notice and Gray Man in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

So Disney playing a similar range for their studio content is not outrageous and falls in-line with the rest of the industry.

Wait you are citing the production budget for two movies created by Netflix for Netflix. I'm talking about a movie that has had a full theatrical release. Quick look, it does look like they are around $100 mil, so I'd say what Disney is doing seems reasonable and not some sort "accounting trick."

 

[Disney Irish]

False equivalence. Netflix produced that film in its entirety, and streaming only films are often more expensive because the stars don’t get back end percentage.

In this instance, TLM to D+ would be the equivalent of Netflix licensing a movie like Silence of the Lambs. Are they paying $200M / film to license it?

Gray Man had a theatrical run, I actually saw it in theaters.

So its exactly like Disney putting a movie out in theaters and then paying itself via D+ subs to have it available for streaming. The revenue all goes toward the movies cost/profitability.

Wait you are citing the production budget for two movies created by Netflix for Netflix. I'm talking about a movie that has had a full theatrical release. Quick look, it does look like they are around $100 mil, so I'd say what Disney is doing seems reasonable and not some sort "accounting trick."

That is exactly what is being said, its not an accounting trick as its Disney doing exactly what Netflix has been doing. One can argue what is the fair market value of a movie, which I'm sure is happening now with the strike (and did with ScarJo), but its a legit business practice.

 

[LSLS]

Gray Man had a theatrical run, I actually saw it in theaters.

So its exactly like Disney putting a movie out in theaters and then paying itself via D+ subs to have it available for streaming. The revenue all goes toward the movies cost/profitability.


That is exactly what is being said, its not an accounting trick as its Disney doing exactly what Netflix has been doing. One can argue what is the fair market value of a movie, which I'm sure is happening now with the strike (and did with ScarJo), but its a legit business practice

Come on now. It was released in 400 theaters a week before being released to Netflix and made $200k. It's nothing like TLM. But it doesn't change your premise. According to the couple places I looked at, $100 mil is right around what a streaming service would pay for a major relase. In fact it may even be a little low (i.e. the opposite of what people are arguing may be true).

 

[Disney Irish]

Come on now. It was released in 400 theaters a week before being released to Netflix and made $200k. It's nothing like TLM. But it doesn't change your premise. According to the couple places I looked at, $100 mil is right around what a streaming service would pay for a major relase. In fact it may even be a little low (i.e. the opposite of what people are arguing may be true).

Yeah I wasn't trying to say that Gray Man was some box office success, just that its an example of this scenario. And yes its small box office performance doesn't change the premise of a studio releasing a film and then paying itself to put it on its own streaming service.

Deadline estimates $100M I believe for D+ to have TLM, but I agree that is probably low.

 

[LSLS]

Yeah I wasn't trying to say that Gray Man was some box office success, just that its an example of this scenario. And yes its small box office performance doesn't change the premise of a studio releasing a film and then paying itself to put it on its own streaming service.

Deadline estimates $100M I believe for D+ to have TLM, but I agree that is probably low.

Well, it wasn't really a theatrical release. It's less than 10% of the theaters a major movie is released to and was for a week. It was a movie made for Netflix, I think it's unfair to say that is a similar scenario. But I wasn't even talking about a studio paying itself. I'm much more interested in what they pay other studios for a movie. Which looks to be north of $100 million for a major film.

 

[Tha Realest]

Which looks to be north of $100 million for a major film.

Netflix only pays that on movies it produces or acquires during production. It is not paying that much for films producer and released by other studios then dumped months or years later on a streaming service. It pays a fraction of that.

 

[TP2000]

Nope. Sorry. Little Mermaid will have multiple award nominations in 2024. Production design, sound, visual effects, original song, possibly more. It will mot be a faded memory.

For the less than 6% of the American population who still watches the Oscars?

And almost all of that 6% are either diehard movie nerds, are employed in the industry but not statused enough to get a ticket to the Dolby Theatre, or are older gays who still know someone who actually throws a decent Oscars party. Or are cool enough to get invited by an older gay who still throws a decent Oscars party.

In 2023, just under 19 Million people watched the Oscars. The population of the United States in 2023 was 335 Million. 6% (rounding up)

25 years ago in 1998, 55 Million people watched the Oscars, when the population of the US was only 272 Million. 20% (rounding down)

Oscars viewership by year 2000-2024 | Statista

In 2024, the Oscars audience was 19.5 million in the U.S., up from a viewership of 18.8 million in the previous year.

www.statista.com

 

[DKampy]

The concept of DVD/Bluray sales being a profit center for these movies who fail to make a profit in their theatrical runs comes up occasionally, so I went and looked...

Here's what Aladdin did in DVD/Bluray sales after its $1 Billion box office back in 2019: $44 Million. While $44 Million is better than a stick in the eye, surely that's not considered a hugely important profit driver. $44 Million is about half the box office that Aladdin did in South Korea in '19.

View attachment 730912

And Bluray sales are declining further every year. Last summer Minions: Rise of Gru did $940 Million at the global box office, but has only sold $18 Million in DVD/Blurays.

If Mermaid ends up with roughly half of Aladdin's 2019 box office, and you account for four more years of rapid technological change and crashing sales for Blurays, I can't imagine they'll sell more than about $15 Million in Mermaid Blurays in the next calendar year. Probably only $10 Million is the safer bet.

Again, not that an extra $15 Million is a pain in the butt, but let's realize that Bluray sales are rather small now and getting smaller every year. And the manufacture of DVD players for home use is not a growth industry.

How much profit will TLM get through PVOD…. This is the new blu ray/ DVD at $20 a rental

 

[GimpYancIent]

Nope. Sorry. Little Mermaid will have multiple award nominations in 2024. Production design, sound, visual effects, original song, possibly more. It will mot be a faded memory.

To the general public, over all movie viewers, people in general the laundry list of awards are meaningless. To the recipients, sure, but nothing to everyone else. This iteration of The Little Mermaid will soon be put on the shelf, in the back of the vault, along with a stack of other remakes to gather dust / cobwebs. It had its splash moment, everything rapidly receded and now its drifting away. Nothing to see here folks.

 

[JAN J]

There is indeed revenue from D+ for TLM. It's real and not just on paper or in an accounting spreadsheet.

D+ gets revenue. Real revenue in dollars from subscriptions. If D+ didn't have Disney attached to it, it would have to pay other studios for their content. And it pays that user fee for content it airs from the subscription revenue. Money coming in to D+ pays for TLM to be on D+

I was trying to make a different statement.

Yes, D+ has subscription revenue, plus what they get from advertisers that broadcast on lower tier subscriptions. And that money is then used to pay for their overhead, infrastructure, and content. On the latter, you have content made EXCLUSIVELY for Disney+ (the Star Wars and Marvel shows, shows about the Parks & WDI, Willow....), and then you have what they pay for content from other Studios within TWDC (like TLM). In that last case, I would not account for that as part of the movies's profitability. Because this is "Revenue allocation", not direct revenue made by the movie.

One way to look at it expanding on the kid's allowance example you mentioned: say that kid makes some of its money in allowances, and some cutting the grass for his neighbors (or working at MC or whatever). The money from outside increases the revenue of the household, the allowance is just an allocation. Now say you promise the kid an additional $100 if he/she is a straight A student and he/she succeeds. The kid will now have made more money, but the household is still in the same situation.

So to summarize, I think Variety's article was wrong in accounting the money D+ will pay Walt Disney Pictures as part of TLM's revenue for breaking even. It's D+ revenue ALLOCATED to TLM to Walt Disney Pictures, which creates an ALLOCATED cost for D+.

Now, one can argue that some people will subscribe to D+ when TLM is made available so they can watch it, but that is a different conversation.

 

[MisterPenguin]

To the general public, over all movie viewers, people in general the laundry list of awards are meaningless. To the recipients, sure, but nothing to everyone else. This iteration of The Little Mermaid will soon be put on the shelf, in the back of the vault, along with a stack of other remakes to gather dust / cobwebs. It had its splash moment, everything rapidly receded and now its drifting away. Nothing to see here folks.

Winning an Oscar or Tony has often resulted in renewed interest in a project, which is translated in to mo' money.

 

[Disney Irish]

Winning an Oscar or Tony has often resulted in renewed interest in a project, which is translated in to mo' money.