Disney Irish
Premium Member
Which is why the Deadline article was saying it only had to make in the $500Ms to breakeven.
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Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid
- Thread starter NateD1226
- Start date
Which is why the Deadline article was saying it only had to make in the $500Ms to breakeven.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Oh, okay. But it's not available on Disney+ yet, so that mysterious shuffling of funds between one Disney account and another hasn't yet taken place at the beautiful downtown Burbank branch of Bank Of America.
Until it shows up on Disney+, and thus somehow gets paid $100 Million from the same company that produced it, I'll just go with box office data and facts.
Dranth
Well-Known Member
Crystal is not a better film when looking at audience reactions. The audience score on Crystal Skull is 53% on RT while Dial is 88%. Skull is 6.2 on IMDB and Dial is 6.9.
I do agree that Crystal Skull had some higher highs and from a technical standpoint is better made (pacing being the most blatant difference to me where Skull excels) but the lows really dragged the movie down. Dial does nothing egregiously bad like Skull does and ends up as a better movie over all.
As for TLM, well, all Disney films really, them pushing the D+ date is a smart move. They really need to get people going to the theater again if they want any chance for many of these movies to do well in the theatrical window.
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Screamface
Well-Known Member
But these things aren't actually comparable. The ratings aren't based on people recently watching either film and deciding. Dial's score is purely that it didn't suck as much as the remembered Crystals third act.
It's done. The D+ factor isn't the main reason. They burnt all the good will for these live-action remakes. People just aren't there for them. If anything D+ will have been more of an issue because people could see the ones they didn't see in theatres. Watching a longer more boring version of a film at home allows for more distractions and less enjoyment than when you're in a theatre trying to ignore the noises of bored kids.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
The 8 billion in annual revenue D+ subscribers pay is what foots that bill ultimately. It seems Disney is beholden to a reasonable fair market value or else the talent would sue for their residuals being cut short. I don't know what weird formula they use but it certainly seems to scale against the films success.
Based on what Disney paid for content last year, TLM should be a 120-150 million paycheque from D+ type range.
Elementals almost certainly will fall in that reference range too as it has overtaken Lightyear, which they ascribed 100 million to.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Then why does Bob, either Iger or Chapek and now Iger again, keep having to say on earning's calls every three months that Disney+ lost such-and-such hundreds of millions of dollars the past three months, but that eventually Disney+ will turn a profit?
Disney+ hasn't delivered any profit yet to The Walt Disney Company, so how can Disney+ also be subsidizing traditional box office failures?
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Then why does Bob, either Iger or Chapek and now Iger again, keep having to say on earning's calls every three months that Disney+ lost such-and-such hundreds of millions of dollars the past three months, but that eventually Disney+ will turn a profit?
Disney+ hasn't delivered any profit yet to The Walt Disney Company, so how can Disney+ also be subsidizing traditional box office failures?
Because they make 8 billion in revenue on D+ subscribers alone and spend 11-12 billion (the majority of which is on content).
It doesn't change the fact they are spending 12 billion - which is money they are actively shunting in part to the studios. Some for tailor made D+ content and some for the studios films that also go into theatres. Particularly in the Chapek run the studios weren't 'losing' money, D+ revenue was just being transferred to Pixar for example to take Turning Red off their hands.
If Disney stopped paying for the content on the service, well yes they'd heartily declare 4, 5, whatever billion in profit. Marketing of D+ and some server farms don't cost that much.
That doesn't change the fact they are paying for that content, which yes includes paying the studios fair market value for their movies. How do you explain the 12 billion dollars they are spending otherwise?
TP2000
Well-Known Member
So if each year Disney+ makes $8 Billion in revenue, but spends $11 Billion on operating expenses, Disney+ is losing $3 Billion per year.
A company division that is losing $3 Billion per year shouldn't/can't subsidize a company division that is only losing $500 Million per year.
It's all the same business concern; The Walt Disney Company.
So now, with all of its studio and Disney+ divisions combined, they are losing $3.5 Billion per year. That is not sustainable.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Again, we're dealing with my pea-sized brain here after two glasses of Pinot Noir, but...
If the Chevrolet division of GM loses $3 Billion per year, and Cadillac loses $500 Million per year, GM is losing $3.5 Billion per year.
But if Chevrolet pays Cadillac $250 Million in an intra-company funds transfer in order to subsidize development of a new luxury compact that both divisions will eventually sell, that may help mask the cost of development for Cadillac's new luxury compact and bolster Cadillac's balance sheet for that fiscal year, but it still doesn't hide the fact that the parent company GM lost $3.5 Billion that year.
You can "cover" and "share" and "shuffle" funds all you want between company divisions. But at the end of the year, the company either makes a profit or they don't. That money that you used to "cover" or "share" financial costs between divisions doesn't just magically appear.
Ultimately, that money has to come from the customer, or loaned from a bank that must be repaid. For the Little Mermaid, they didn't get enough money from the box office to cover its costs. So how is Disney+ going to magically make $70 Million appear to make it break even?
If the Chevrolet division of GM loses $3 Billion per year, and Cadillac loses $500 Million per year, GM is losing $3.5 Billion per year.
But if Chevrolet pays Cadillac $250 Million in an intra-company funds transfer in order to subsidize development of a new luxury compact that both divisions will eventually sell, that may help mask the cost of development for Cadillac's new luxury compact and bolster Cadillac's balance sheet for that fiscal year, but it still doesn't hide the fact that the parent company GM lost $3.5 Billion that year.
You can "cover" and "share" and "shuffle" funds all you want between company divisions. But at the end of the year, the company either makes a profit or they don't. That money that you used to "cover" or "share" financial costs between divisions doesn't just magically appear.
Ultimately, that money has to come from the customer, or loaned from a bank that must be repaid. For the Little Mermaid, they didn't get enough money from the box office to cover its costs. So how is Disney+ going to magically make $70 Million appear to make it break even?
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
You are confusing the parent company with the division. When we really want to compare two divisions. I don't want to take you too far off track other than to say Disney (or Chevrolet) is not obviously losing money. The parks and linear networks make more money than D+ loses. So the parent company (Disney) makes money because Parks + Linear > DTC + Studios.
But using your example, if Chevrolet transferred 250 million to Cadillac then they'd report that they are actually losing 250million more than they reported (so 3.25B) with Cadillac losing .25B.
The problem you are having is that you are trying to claim if Chevrolet transfers 250 million that disappears and therefore the company has now 'lost' 3.75 billion. 3.25 billion Chevrolet reports they lost and 500 million you 'know' Cadillac lost. But it doesn't work on what you 'know'.
In our case we are pulling one number out of the financial reports (D+) and another that you are making up (Studio losses).
We know the number D+ loses because that is already made up of the money they transferred away - this is what is reported on the quarterly results. If you want to know what the studios lost last quarter it was actually 50 million, also reported on the quarterly results. You are just trying to prognosticate what they will report on the next quarterly result and I'm just saying they likely won't report a loss of 450 million on the Studio end for Q2, they are instead going to bake that loss into D+.
They may even report the studios made money. We'll see on the results in a couple weeks.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Also for the record Disney financials reported 'the studios' only lost 287 million from Oct 1, 2021-Sept 30, 2022. Not for 4 months, the entire fiscal year.
This conveniently includes "box office bombs" like The Last Duel, Eternals, Encanto, The Kings Man, West Side Story, Death on the Nile, Turning Red, Lightyear, Strange World, Thor Love and Thunder.
In fact the only movie I think that people clearly acknowledge made a box office profit in this window was Doctor Strange. And ever so conveniently discludes Avatar and Wakanda.
Someone feel free to do the math and tell us what they think these movies actually lost though.
You know what suddenly reported epic loses at the end of this stellar box office run? D+.
THIS is 'the math' Disney is reporting. I'm perfectly fine if people want to 'know the truth' that the studios are doing poorly at the box office, but you cannot take the reported D+ loses at full face value and double count their loses in two divisions. Pick one.
This conveniently includes "box office bombs" like The Last Duel, Eternals, Encanto, The Kings Man, West Side Story, Death on the Nile, Turning Red, Lightyear, Strange World, Thor Love and Thunder.
In fact the only movie I think that people clearly acknowledge made a box office profit in this window was Doctor Strange. And ever so conveniently discludes Avatar and Wakanda.
Someone feel free to do the math and tell us what they think these movies actually lost though.
You know what suddenly reported epic loses at the end of this stellar box office run? D+.
THIS is 'the math' Disney is reporting. I'm perfectly fine if people want to 'know the truth' that the studios are doing poorly at the box office, but you cannot take the reported D+ loses at full face value and double count their loses in two divisions. Pick one.
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BrianLo
Well-Known Member
FY 2022 Reported Studio losses 287 million.
The Last Duel Box Office 30.6 million
Production Budget 100 million
Eternals Box office 402.1 million
Production Budget 236.2 million
Encanto Box Office 256.8 million
Production Budget 150 million
Tne Kings Man Box Office 126 million
Production Budget 100 million
West Side Story Box Office 76 million
Production Budget 100 million
Death on the Nile Box office 137.6 million
Production Budget 90 million
Strange World Box office 73.6 million
Production budget 180 million
Lightyear Box Office 226.4 million
Production budget 200 million
Turning Red Box Office 20.1 million
Production Budget 175 million
Ron's Gone Wrong Box office 60.1 million
Production Budget ??
Antlers Box Office 18.9 million
Production budget ?? But I can see they spent at least 16.7 million in BC
The French Dispatch 46.3 million
Production Budget 25 million
Nightmare Alley Box Office 39.6 million
Production Budget 60 million
Thor Love and Thunder Box Office 760.9 million
Production Budget 250 million
Doctor Strange MoM Box office 955.8 million
Production budget 294.6 million
The Last Duel Box Office 30.6 million
Production Budget 100 million
Eternals Box office 402.1 million
Production Budget 236.2 million
Encanto Box Office 256.8 million
Production Budget 150 million
Tne Kings Man Box Office 126 million
Production Budget 100 million
West Side Story Box Office 76 million
Production Budget 100 million
Death on the Nile Box office 137.6 million
Production Budget 90 million
Strange World Box office 73.6 million
Production budget 180 million
Lightyear Box Office 226.4 million
Production budget 200 million
Turning Red Box Office 20.1 million
Production Budget 175 million
Ron's Gone Wrong Box office 60.1 million
Production Budget ??
Antlers Box Office 18.9 million
Production budget ?? But I can see they spent at least 16.7 million in BC
The French Dispatch 46.3 million
Production Budget 25 million
Nightmare Alley Box Office 39.6 million
Production Budget 60 million
Thor Love and Thunder Box Office 760.9 million
Production Budget 250 million
Doctor Strange MoM Box office 955.8 million
Production budget 294.6 million
MrPromey
Well-Known Member
D+ is the media whipping boy for Disney through some point in 2024. They've stated for a while now it will turn a profit in 2024 so they have until before the end of that year to toss money around like they're a billionaire who thinks it would be fun to own a social media company.
I'm guessing that'll be Q4 of '24?
Anyway, D+ is the division that's allowed to lose money right now so... that's where the money is being lost, it would seem.
Thst said, if they hadn’t coughed up a bunch for exclusive streaming rights for TLM, Disney would have probably made a pretty penny off of them to someone external.
Lightyear, as BrianLo suggested way back in this thread, probably not so much.
At the end of the day, the value of the stock has no direct relationship with how much money the company makes or loses anyway so it's all just kind of a game, right?
And Disney’s not the only media giant doing this kind of shady looking stuff.* Remember Warner recently shuffled the deck chairs on the luxury liner they now call “Max”, too and probably managed to sidestep residuals for a whole bunch of people in the process.
I'll tell you, I wish I could swing my finances like these big publicly traded companies do.
My pitch would go something like this:
"In 2024, I plan to lose a butt-load of money but I'm letting everyone know it’s gonna happen so please invest in me, now.
Also continue to invest in me through 2024 as I really lean hard into my midlife crisis. I'm telling you now it's going to happen so that makes it okay and show's I'm responsible by providing guidance on how I plan to live like there's no tomorrow for all of 2024.
I promise I'll get my $h!t together in 2025. At that point, we'll just pretend like 2024 didn't happen and start fresh.
All will be forgiven.
Cool?"
*shady looking to normal people
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TP2000
Well-Known Member
Sorry, I was commenting on this thought I've seen thrown out by a few other posters here that Mermaid would somehow end up making money once Disney+ "paid" the studio to put it on Disney+. Or, at least that's what I understood their argument to be.
I can't understand how Disney+ is losing Billions per year, but when Disney+ internally "pays" Walt Disney Pictures $100 Million to put Mermaid on their streaming service after Mermaid lost $73 Million at the box office, the Walt Disney Company as a whole has still lost $73 Million on Mermaid. Especially because Disney+ isn't yet making any profit.
It's just a shell game with pre-existing company funds for a money-losing movie.
Yes, sorry for the confusion, I should have clarified. Over in the box office thread it's now looking like Disney is going to lose at least $400 Million at the box office this summer from it's four summer tent poles combined (Guardians, Mermaid, Elemental, Indy 5). Add in the projected bad box office for its one summer tent peg (Haunted Mansion), and the box office loss for this summer for Disney's flagship studios may approach $500 Million.
But it's going to be at least $400 Million loss by Labor Day. That was what I was referencing in my own brain when I threw out the $500 Million number; it was just for Summer '23, not Fiscal '22.
This summer has been absolutely brutal for them at the box office. Except for Guardians, they can't get a profit.
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It was just explained to you.
And explained to you in other threads, too.
So when you say you can't understand it, it's because you refuse to. Because you want to make the case Disney is failing, you just won't understand how the money coming in from D+ subs is being credited to the movies that did or didn't make a profit while in the theaters.
Money comes in from Box Office receipts. Money comes in from D+ subscriptions. The money is credited to the movie in the theater and then credited to the movie on streaming. Streaming takes in money so that people can see those movies after they left the theaters on those streamers.
If D+ wasn't part of the equation, then the movies would have gotten post-theatrical money from other companies' streamers and still broke even or profited **AFTER** the theatrical window closed.
Disney has always said D+ will become profitable in 2024. And the last two quarters of lessening losses shows that D+ is on track.
JAN J
Active Member
I just want to add my 2 cents to the matter. I think all the explanations and math on the overall and inner workings of the financials were really good but at the end it's sad that TLM will only about break even rather than be a beacon of money for Disney.
At the current stage the box office is pretty close to the $560m that the Variety article mentioned (bet even they are surprised with such accuracy). This figure alone still puts the film at a loss of some $240m (depending on assumption for marketing and percentages from domestic / international box office), and even though other revenue streams and accounting can overturn it's losses, I am sure it's not what they wanted.
Sure, they will get money from Blu-Ray / DVD sales, renting the film to other platforms, plus other merch and licensing agreement that DPEP will make using the IP (which in this should fall under "Live Action TLM" and not just "TLM"). I am not knowledgeable about this market but I am assuming this will create other streams of revenues AND costs, so not sure how much profit we are talking about. But even then, these are very likely much more limited than the animated counterpart (who knows how much money Ariel made Disney since 1989, not to mention her presence in the "Disney Princess" IP).
As for the the D+ money, assuming that as a revenue stream for the film, though not wrong, is certainly misleading. Disney+ can pay $100m and that goes 100% for the film, so it makes it profitable. In that train of thought, they could just pay $2 billion and call it the most profitable remake in history. Does not change the fact there is no money being made. And (as someone pointed in this thread, sorry I am unable to quote) unlike other streaming services, D+ has no negotiation power to negotiate the amount.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
My point was actually that Disney lost 1.7 billion theatrically / at the box office (roughly), based on the calculations you are using. All in fiscal 2022. They reported an actual loss of 287 million.
I’m not denying your numbers, Disney is in the red post theatrically for this summer. What I am continuing to litigate is that theatrical is not the only source of revenue that the studios count at the end of the day.
So they are in fact doing significantly better this year. But D+ in reality shored up about 1.5 billion of that gap in 2022 (or more) and reported it all as their loss instead of the studios.
*All with the caveat that they are going to write down a bunch of ancillary D+ only content this quarter and I have no idea which division will be reporting that loss.
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Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
Meh-losing $73 million for Disney is like when the grocery deliverers forget to deliver an 8-pack of coke zero.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
They can lose $73 million BUT THEY CAN'T RUN THE TRAMS IN EPCOT.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
If D+ sub is tied to trams ridership, they can be run at every park around the world.