Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid

[Disney Irish]

I don’t agree with it or that it should be. But how do you explain the stock price over the last few years other than Wall Street speculating and then aggressively turning on D+.

Because despite whatever la la land people are in with whatever grievance of the day, the valuation has been completely disconnected from how the parks have been doing since mid 2020. Which is unfortunate and hits home the point Wall Street doesn’t really care about the parks buisness. At least as it pertains to valuing the overall company day to day, though probably providing a floor.

Not park sentiment, but cold hard numbers. Which have been strong, unfortunately so if you disagree with the way they are wrung for profit.

I wish posters would stop using the stock price as some barometer for the company. There are about a billion things that go into stock price fluctuations for a particular company, least of which is automated trading based on the overall market. For example should we take today's increase in the stock price to indicate that Wall St has become positive about the company since yesterday when it was down, or is it just that the market is up overall.

And once again I point out something I've said previously, that if Iger and the Board announce a dividend tomorrow the stock would skyrocket and almost double. That is ultimately what Wall St is looking for from DIS.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don’t agree with it or that it should be. But how do you explain the stock price over the last few years other than Wall Street speculating and then aggressively turning on D+.

Because despite whatever la la land people are in with whatever grievance of the day, the valuation has been completely disconnected from how the parks have been doing since mid 2020. Which is unfortunate and hits home the point Wall Street doesn’t really care about the parks buisness. At least as it pertains to valuing the overall company day to day, though probably providing a floor.

Not park sentiment, but cold hard numbers. Which have been strong, unfortunately so if you disagree with the way they are wrung for profit.

Cause Wall Street speculates cause nothing EVER goes down.

“We’re all gonna be rich! Everyday!”

What happened was Bob had really good Wall Street cred. He was in “sweater heaven”…

But then he quit like a coward…and lost it.

Now the front end costs/returns on D+ ain’t so good. They should be way ahead…already

Couple that with failing Box office/IP that “ain’t” enough…

Now parks tanking and being put on cnbc and the front page of the journal

And a vastly underperforming stock.

Lol…Bob shoulda NEVER comeback. I hate to love it…but I love it. He has been 100% ineffective at changing any of this trajectory. Cause it’s all his fault in the first place.

Also…beyond the dopey boardroom…business knows they went way to far trying to grab easy cash under the guise of Covid…
Just too far. Don’t hold your breath waiting for anyone to admit it though

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I wish posters would stop using the stock price as some barometer for the company. There are about a billion things that go into stock price fluctuations for a particular company, least of which is automated trading based on the overall market. For example should we take today's increase in the stock price to indicate that Wall St has become positive about the company since yesterday when it was down, or is it just that the market is up overall.

And once again I point out something I've said previously, that if Iger and the Board announce a dividend tomorrow the stock would skyrocket and almost double. That is ultimately what Wall St is looking for from DIS.

It’s a public traded company…the stock is the first barometer that management will follow.

I gotta ask…how old are you? And are you enjoying your first week in a western economy?

And also…be sure to visit Disney land before you go home!

 

[Casper Gutman]

Cause Wall Street speculates cause nothing EVER goes down.

“We’re all gonna be rich! Everyday!”

What happened was Bob had really good Wall Street cred. He was in “sweater heaven”…

But then he quit like a coward…and lost it.

Now the front end costs/returns on D+ ain’t so good. They should be way ahead…already

Couple that with failing Box office/IP that “ain’t” enough…

Now parks tanking and being put on cnbc and the front page of the journal

And a vastly underperforming stock.

Lol…Bob shoulda NEVER comeback. I hate to love it…but I love it. He has been 100% ineffective at changing any of this trajectory. Cause it’s all his fault in the first place.

Also…beyond the dopey boardroom…business knows they went way to far trying to grab easy cash under the guise of Covid…
Just too far. Don’t hold your breath waiting for anyone to admit it though

Exactly who thought D+ would be profitable by now? I believe “late 2024” was the earliest anyone expected that to happen.

 

[MagicHappens1971]

Exactly who thought D+ would be profitable by now? I believe “late 2024” was the earliest anyone expected that to happen.

I feel like the consensus is that “Wall St” was okay with D+ not being profitable and using it as a “Loss Leader” but that was in 2019 when Disney made Billions at the Box Office. Here we are 4 years later and D+ is loosing Billions and so the film division (just box office sales) is loosing hundreds of millions.


I guess what I’m saying is that they were okay with it, have now become impatient and want to see a return on the investment

 

[Disney Irish]

It’s a public traded company…the stock is the first barometer that management will follow.

I gotta ask…how old are you? And are you enjoying your first week in a western economy?

And also…be sure to visit Disney land before you go home!

Don't matter how old I am, which is not relevant to the conversation, but I'm older than Star Wars if it really makes a difference.

This ain't my first rodeo, as I've been investing in the market for a very long time. Remember the Flash Crash from over a decade ago that saw a Trillion dollars disappear from the market in the matter of minutes. Yeah, tell me again how stock prices that are control primarily by an algorithm are a true barometer of the company. If you really believe that I got a few bridges to sell you. Its a house of cards my friend....

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Exactly who thought D+ would be profitable by now? I believe “late 2024” was the earliest anyone expected that to happen.

They way “outpaced” their numbers…a lot of that was nonsense freebies…but still

But they also are outpacing their costs.
And that’s not ending. Content will never get cheap on stream. Ask Netflix…specifically about 2019…

But hey…losts of overhead on D+…they gotta launch satellites…run millions of miles of fiber optic…build production facilities…load spots into genie…

Lots of costs

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I feel like the consensus is that “Wall St” was okay with D+ not being profitable and using it as a “Loss Leader” but that was in 2019 when Disney made Billions at the Box Office. Here we are 4 years later and D+ is loosing Billions and so the film division (just box office sales) is loosing hundreds of millions.


I guess what I’m saying is that they were okay with it, have now become impatient and want to see a return on the investment

They also lost 4 mil subscribers first quarter of 2023…

Oh right…”fake subscribers”…pay it no mind

Everyone signing up at $49.99 a month next year with ads to get espn out of the crapper

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Don't matter how old I am, which is not relevant to the conversation, but I'm older than Star Wars if it really makes a difference.

This ain't my first rodeo, as I've been investing in the market for a very long time. Remember the Flash Crash from over a decade ago that saw a Trillion dollars disappear from the market in the matter of minutes. Yeah, tell me again how stock prices that are control primarily by an algorithm are a true barometer of the company. If you really believe that I got a few bridges to sell you. Its a house of cards my friend....

It very much appears to be your first Rodeo..

You’re just repeating pro-Disney talking points off the google and not making any analysis on them. It’s like the X-files (show for old people): the truth is out there.

We got plenty of those around here…”son”

So are we talking like 25? I got a side bet that it’s 25-28

I have no doubt you’re older than the phantom menace…maybe?

 

[Disney Irish]

It very much appears to be your first Rodeo..

You’re just repeating pro-Disney talking points off the google and not making any analysis on them. It’s like the X-files (show for old people): the truth is out there.

We got plenty of those around here…”son”

So are we talking like 25? I got a side bet that it’s 25-28

I have no doubt you’re older than the phantom menace…maybe?

Again my age doesn't matter Grandpa, and this is like the 50th time you've asked me in all our interactions here on the board over the years. I'm older than the OT, so write it down so you don't forget.

Also this ain't pro-Disney talking points, this is how the stock market works.

But we've gotten way off topic now, if you want to continue to talk about D+ and its affects on DIS stock price lets take it over to the D+ thread.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

I feel like the consensus is that “Wall St” was okay with D+ not being profitable and using it as a “Loss Leader” but that was in 2019 when Disney made Billions at the Box Office. Here we are 4 years later and D+ is loosing Billions and so the film division (just box office sales) is loosing hundreds of millions.

I don't know, they seemed thrilled with D+ and comfortable with it losing money into at least 2024 when Disney was making little to no money at the box office and the theme parks. It seemed the only thing they cared about, which propelled Disney's share price into the stratosphere. Then, they changed their mind.

I really don't think there's much sense looking for a rationale in terms of investors counting up all the revenue from different divisions and deciding Disney+ losses were acceptable because they were being offset elsewhere. It's another one of those booms and busts in the sharemarket that are largely irrational in the casino capitalism scenario according to which Wall Street operates.

 

[Dranth]

They also lost 4 mil subscribers first quarter of 2023…

Oh right…”fake subscribers”…pay it no mind

Everyone signing up at $49.99 a month next year with ads to get espn out of the crapper

Why ignore that most of those subscribers paid almost nothing? That means the whole area was either bringing in next to nothing or losing money for the company. Them shedding dead weight (financially) is a good move and something I would think we all want to see across the company. There are plenty of issues and bad decisions to pick from but I don't believe this was one of them.

 

[Disney Irish]

Why ignore that most of those subscribers paid almost nothing? That means the whole area was either bringing in next to nothing or losing money for the company. Them shedding dead weight (financially) is a good move and something I would think we all want to see across the company. There are plenty of issues and bad decisions to pick from but I don't believe this was one of them.

Its simple math as some around here like to point out....

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Why ignore that most of those subscribers paid almost nothing? That means the whole area was either bringing in next to nothing or losing money for the company. Them shedding dead weight (financially) is a good move and something I would think we all want to see across the company. There are plenty of issues and bad decisions to pick from but I don't believe this was one of them.

Because they didn’t continue with it…
Now some are more lucrative than others…but you want to maintain momentum and limit bleed as much as possible

This streaming thing is NOT a gold mine..there’s enough data here…
What Bob said is his personal…on the credit card…IP would create a whole new dynamic…

Then she hulk and some box office rejects coming in 6 weeks

There is really no “upside” to losing any subscribers…they need ads to bail them out and you sell based on numbers/volume

Remember when they said they wanted to lose park customers (a lie…but Praets bought it)…and there was better and worst customers? (Also a lie…the model holds)

…how’s that playing? Book your starcruiser and buy your dvc now before it’s closed…I mean…”sold out”!

 

[Casper Gutman]

I don't know, they seemed thrilled with D+ and comfortable with it losing money into at least 2024 when Disney was making little to no money at the box office and the theme parks. It seemed the only thing they cared about, which propelled Disney's share price into the stratosphere. Then, they changed their mind.

I really don't think there's much sense looking for a rationale in terms of investors counting up all the revenue from different divisions and deciding Disney+ losses were acceptable because they were being offset elsewhere. It's another one of those booms and busts in the sharemarket that are largely irrational in the casino capitalism scenario according to which Wall Street operates.

As I recall, one shaky Netflix earnings report and fears of larger economic issues that never fully materialized caused Wall Street to completely reverse course on streaming, well before any of the new outlets were ever supposed to be close to profitability.

It’s also worth mentioning that if Disney hadn’t moved aggressively into streaming when they did, their stock would have taken a huge hit, since Wall Street was SURE it was the only way forward. Until they weren’t.

 

[Dranth]

Because they didn’t continue with it…
Now some are more lucrative than others…but you want to maintain momentum and limit bleed as much as possible

This streaming thing is NOT a gold mine..there’s enough data here…
What Bob said is his personal…on the credit card…IP would create a whole new dynamic…

Then she hulk and some box office rejects coming in 6 weeks

Streaming overall may well end up being a mistake but the jury is still out on that. One area I think we can all agree, it’s not going to be the promise land management thought it would. I personally believe it can still be a nice little profit center if done right though.

For example, put movies on it after a reasonable theatrical and rental run. Focus on exclusive content that is cheap but interesting like the Animal Kingdom series, or the imagineering one. Keep pumping out kids’ content and bringing older archival material online. Make the occasional must-see Marvel and Star Wars but cut back on the number of them. Bring the Fox content in so your only choice is D+ if you want any of that. Bottom line is there is so much they could do to make people want D+ and be willing to pay for it.

All that aside, no matter what happens in the long run, we should still put what happened and how that informs current decisions in context when judging those decisions. In this case, if you remember, the street was hitting the streaming crack pipe hard back when this all started and even in the middle of a pandemic, with closed theaters and amusement parks they were pumping Disney stock to absurd levels due to little more than increased subscriber numbers.

That changed on a dime and given that new reality, Disney made the right decision with India. Number of subscribers suddenly no longer mattered like they did so why sink a ton more money to keep a bunch of users who barely pay for the service.

Now, if we want to talk about how the company deserves a CEO and management team that is a bit more forward thinking and could have possibly avoided or mitigated a lot of this before it ever became an issue than I am all on board.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Streaming overall may well end up being a mistake but the jury is still out on that. One area I think we can all agree, it’s not going to be the promise land management thought it would. I personally believe it can still be a nice little profit center if done right though.

For example, put movies on it after a reasonable theatrical and rental run. Focus on exclusive content that is cheap but interesting like the Animal Kingdom series, or the imagineering one. Keep pumping out kids’ content and bringing older archival material online. Make the occasional must-see Marvel and Star Wars but cut back on the number of them. Bring the Fox content in so your only choice is D+ if you want any of that. Bottom line is there is so much they could do to make people want D+ and be willing to pay for it.

All that aside, no matter what happens in the long run, we should still put what happened and how that informs current decisions in context when judging those decisions. In this case, if you remember, the street was hitting the streaming crack pipe hard back when this all started and even in the middle of a pandemic, with closed theaters and amusement parks they were pumping Disney stock to absurd levels due to little more than increased subscriber numbers.

That changed on a dime and given that new reality, Disney made the right decision with India. Number of subscribers suddenly no longer mattered like they did so why sink a ton more money to keep a bunch of users who barely pay for the service.

Now, if we want to talk about how the company deserves a CEO and management team that is a bit more forward thinking and could have possibly avoided or mitigated a lot of this before it ever became an issue than I am all on board.

More than fair…

They may evolve streaming into a more profitable model.

But it ain’t in 2024

Content is always gonna be a problem. The fact it’s expensive and it will be forgotten. This isn’t cable…where you could replay Return of the Jedi 4 times a year and get good ad revenue from eyeballs…

The world has changed.

Which is funny…because bobs grand idea is to slap unwanted services together and cram ads on them?

1985 called…they want their idea back


Oh…sell fox though. That’s a dog and shoot it.

I think the series problem is 6 shows is absolutely pointless. It’s a deterrent from longterm subscriptions

You need real seasons that span good parts of the year.

That’s where they should go back to where it was

 

[Casper Gutman]

Streaming overall may well end up being a mistake but the jury is still out on that. One area I think we can all agree, it’s not going to be the promise land management thought it would. I personally believe it can still be a nice little profit center if done right though.

For example, put movies on it after a reasonable theatrical and rental run. Focus on exclusive content that is cheap but interesting like the Animal Kingdom series, or the imagineering one. Keep pumping out kids’ content and bringing older archival material online. Make the occasional must-see Marvel and Star Wars but cut back on the number of them. Bring the Fox content in so your only choice is D+ if you want any of that. Bottom line is there is so much they could do to make people want D+ and be willing to pay for it.

All that aside, no matter what happens in the long run, we should still put what happened and how that informs current decisions in context when judging those decisions. In this case, if you remember, the street was hitting the streaming crack pipe hard back when this all started and even in the middle of a pandemic, with closed theaters and amusement parks they were pumping Disney stock to absurd levels due to little more than increased subscriber numbers.

That changed on a dime and given that new reality, Disney made the right decision with India. Number of subscribers suddenly no longer mattered like they did so why sink a ton more money to keep a bunch of users who barely pay for the service.

Now, if we want to talk about how the company deserves a CEO and management team that is a bit more forward thinking and could have possibly avoided or mitigated a lot of this before it ever became an issue than I am all on board.

I would not subscribe to the D+ you describe, and I think a lot of others would jump ship too.

What miraculous set of circumstances would have placed a more “forward thinking” CEO in charge? As you said, the entire economic and entertainment community went all in on streaming. A CEO trying to buck that trend would very likely have been fired (ignoring the impossibility of their hiring in the first place). Similarly, what set of circumstances would cause the current board to select a CEO eager to ignore the most firmly held convictions of Wall Street?

 

[BrianLo]

I feel like the consensus is that “Wall St” was okay with D+ not being profitable and using it as a “Loss Leader” but that was in 2019 when Disney made Billions at the Box Office. Here we are 4 years later and D+ is loosing Billions and so the film division (just box office sales) is loosing hundreds of millions.


I guess what I’m saying is that they were okay with it, have now become impatient and want to see a return on the investment

The stock price was never higher than when theatres were essentially all closed though. I’m not questioning that it’s illogical, just pointing out it really doesn’t have as much to do with box office as opposed to exuberance followed by negative sentiment on streaming. The stock started to crash on the back of Netflix subscriber loses in Q1 2022. It built from there until Chapek’s fateful quarter.

That another portion of the company is in doldrums doesn’t help, but the majority of this wild ride seems to be streaming prognostication.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Its simple math as some around here like to point out....

Let’s do some simple math:

$250
X
2

Subtotal + $140 = Total

TOTAL - $543 = ???


Let me know if the order of operations trips you up? And I used the low end numbers to handicap it for poor Bob