Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid

[Angel Ariel]

Sure, they make revenue.

Just not enough to recoup what it costs to make and market.

But they know this going in I presume.

This is where the timing of TLM production and budget decisions and the pandemic fall into play. I don’t think we can say they knew that going into TLM, as so much was planned pre-pandemic.

They should, however, know going into Snow White, coming out in 2024. It started in idea pre-pandemic, but casting doesn’t appear to have begun until 2021. So, theoretically, Disney should have adjusted budget considerations given the impact the pandemic had on movie going as they weren’t as far along in the process as TLM was. It should theoretically also be much less CGI heavy.

 

[Disstevefan1]

This is where the timing of TLM production and budget decisions and the pandemic fall into play. I don’t think we can say they knew that going into TLM, as so much was planned pre-pandemic.

They should, however, know going into Snow White, coming out in 2024. It started in idea pre-pandemic, but casting doesn’t appear to have begun until 2021. So, theoretically, Disney should have adjusted budget considerations given the impact the pandemic had on movie going as they weren’t as far along in the process as TLM was. It should theoretically also be much less CGI heavy.

Oh yea, the live action remake of Snow White. I am sad now.

I have a bad feeling about this. I hope I am wrong.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

It's odd when folks discuss trying to control the budgets of any film, it translates to “we want cheap films.” Nobody wants cheap films.

It's hard for the average person to see these astronomical budgets, see that ticket sales do not cover the expense, and just doing math, if we know we are not going to sell enough tickets, lower the budgets.

We see budget cuts all of the time in the parks. I know, I know, there is a double standard and that's just the way it is.

Besides, it's more about the story. If movie has mass appeal and sells a lot of tickets, no one cares what it costs.

We’ve seen lots of complaints against “bloated” park budgets also, if I had a dollar for every complaint over what Tron, Guardians, or Moana cost I’d be living in Golden Oaks right now.

I view this as the same thing, spending $500 million on Guardians was outrageous and people called them out on that too, that doesn’t mean we want cheaper rides but if it’s eating up the whole ride budget for years and Disney has to raise prices (more) to cover these massive budgets it’s bad for us as consumers.

It also sucks that as Disney parks fans we inevitably end up paying for the D+ loses, movie loses, and any other loses they incur via higher prices for everything in the parks.

 

[erasure fan1]

You have to look at the entire revenue stream, not just box office. And given that its an easy money maker, even if not directly from the box office, it only makes sense to continue them. Again if we're looking at it honestly.

Yes, I said that in the last part of my comment. That's why I said you can't just look at revenue. Like I said, we don't know if it makes sense. Only Disney knows that. If you look at it like you said, honestly, then it's a fair assessment to say if the down stream revenue isn't there, than just because the box office is 500mil, it's not worth continuing.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yes, I said that in the last part of my comment. That's why I said you can't just look at revenue. Like I said, we don't know if it makes sense. Only Disney knows that. If you look at it like you said, honestly, then it's a fair assessment to say if the down stream revenue isn't there, than just because the box office is 500mil, it's not worth continuing.

Yeah I agree if the internal numbers aren't there for all revenue streams then drop the remakes. But since they haven't cancelled any remakes yet it appears they still feel its worth it, maybe the next one will change things........

 

[Disstevefan1]

We’ve seen lots of complaints against “bloated” park budgets also, if I had a dollar for every complaint over what Tron, Guardians, or Moana cost I’d be living in Golden Oaks right now.

I view this as the same thing, spending $500 million on Guardians was outrageous and people called them out on that too, that doesn’t mean we want cheaper rides but if it’s eating up the whole ride budget for years and Disney has to raise prices (more) to cover these massive budgets it’s bad for us as consumers.

It also sucks that as Disney parks fans we inevitably end up paying for the D+ loses, movie loses, and any other loses they incur via higher prices for everything in the parks.

Agreed. At least I can rationalize that the over budget TRON and Guardians I can enjoy for years and years like I still enjoy Test track and Sorin' and YES Mission Space! Shut up! I like it!

As for Moana.......... THAT is waste of money walk through attraction.

Will I go to Moana? OF COURSE! I need a cool place out of the sun to check my G+ for the NEXT attraction I am going on - unless it closed due to dirty diaper stuck in the water treatment plant.

 

[TP2000]

My personal belief is that those who thought this would come close or even cross the billion-dollar mark was caught off guard by the overseas performance. The US numbers are good and, in the past, would put it within striking distance. However, it flopped in pretty much all of Asia and didn't do much better in a few other parts of the world.

Exactly. Although even Mermaid's domestic box office was noticeably weaker, up to 50% or more, than the past three live action remakes.

But then there's Mermaids overseas box office, which was catastrophically bad compared to the previous three remakes, and which doomed the bloated $250 Million budget regardless of what American audiences did. Or in this case, what Americans didn't do.

Just look at these inflation adjusted numbers for Mermaid's disastrous overseas box office, plus its comparatively weak domestic box office. At the overseas box office Mermaid '23 pulled in the following...

Only 30% of Overseas Box Office of Aladdin
Only 27% of Overseas Box Office of Beauty & The Beast
Only 19% of Overseas Box Office of The Lion King

J

 

[BuddyThomas]

Oh yea, the live action remake of Snow White. I am sad now.

I have a bad feeling about this. I hope I am wrong.

Well, maybe we can wait until this one is out of post production before we start speculating on it being a disaster. I will say that Marc Webb is a great director and he did 500 Days of Summer, one of my favorite films.

 

[erasure fan1]

They should, however, know going into Snow White, coming out in 2024. It started in idea pre-pandemic, but casting doesn’t appear to have begun until 2021. So, theoretically, Disney should have adjusted budget

If Snow white has a budget over $140mil, we will know Disney just doesn't know what they are doing. If there's a live action remake that should have a modest budget, it's snow white. There should be minimal cgi and effects heavy scenes. Outside of Gadot you have no one who commands a big paycheck. If they can't make this budget reasonable, there's zero hope for them.

 

[BuddyThomas]

If Snow white has a budget over $140mil, we will know Disney just doesn't know what they are doing. If there's a live action remake that should have a modest budget, it's snow white. There should be minimal cgi and effects heavy scenes. Outside of Gadot you have no one who commands a big paycheck. If they can't make this budget reasonable, there's zero hope for them.

Again, can we wait until this is out of post production to get into another “Disney sucks” psychodrama? And of course, whomever wants to do that first can create the Snow White movie thread, if it doesn’t already exist.

 

[BrianLo]

The $560M estimate is probably low (no one really knows), but at this point, who cares.

Actually @Disney Irish misquoted the Deadline article to you. Break even was somewhere around 440-450. 560M was 71M in profit with residuals then qualifying and being paid out of some of that.

 

[BrianLo]

I've half asked this, but we are having so much troubles onboarding everyone to the reality of the backend.

But what if these bloated budgets also consist of some money Disney is actually paying itself and is reporting as revenue elsewhere?

I also wonder that about the park attraction costs.

 

[Disney Irish]

If Snow white has a budget over $140mil, we will know Disney just doesn't know what they are doing. If there's a live action remake that should have a modest budget, it's snow white. There should be minimal cgi and effects heavy scenes. Outside of Gadot you have no one who commands a big paycheck. If they can't make this budget reasonable, there's zero hope for them.

We won't know the budget until closer to the end of the year.

But given that they had stoppages due to the pandemic and a fire that destroyed sets that needed to be replaced, I have a feeling the budget is going to be in the higher range as well.

 

[erasure fan1]

Again, can we wait until this is out of post production to get into another “Disney sucks” psychodrama? And of course, whomever wants to do that first can create the Snow White movie thread, if it doesn’t already exist.

We are talking about budget. I'm not saying the movie is going to suck. People keep saying mermaid was a bloated budget because of covid, and all the cg work... This isn't the spoiler thread where the story and reaction are being talked about.

 

[Disney Irish]

Actually @Disney Irish misquoted the Deadline article to you. Break even was somewhere around 440-450. 560M was 71M in profit with residuals then qualifying and being paid out of some of that.

Correct, the $560M from Deadline did include all that, but its an easier number for most people to understand given the high budgets and such. Too many people trying to state ranges between $600M-$750M, $560M was just a solid number with no huge range.

 

[Angel Ariel]

If Snow white has a budget over $140mil, we will know Disney just doesn't know what they are doing. If there's a live action remake that should have a modest budget, it's snow white. There should be minimal cgi and effects heavy scenes. Outside of Gadot you have no one who commands a big paycheck. If they can't make this budget reasonable, there's zero hope for them.

Mirror, Mirror - one of the more recent Snow White remakes (2012 - had, from what I can find, a 85 million dollar budget, and that’s with Julia Roberts, Sean Beane and Nathan Lane in the cast. (112.6 million budget adjusted for inflation).

Snow White and the Huntsman was also 2012, had a budget of 170 mil, with Kristen Stewart, Chris Hemsworth, Charlize Theron headlining. That’s a 225 mil budget in 2023 adjusted for inflation.

So there’s a wide range of previous Snow White renditions, in terms of budget. It will be interesting to see where Disney falls.

 

[Disney Irish]

Mirror, Mirror - one of the more recent Snow White remakes (2012 - had, from what I can find, a 85 million dollar budget, and that’s with Julia Roberts, Sean Beane and Nathan Lane in the cast. (112.6 million budget adjusted for inflation).

Snow White and the Huntsman was also 2012, had a budget of 170 mil, with Kristen Stewart, Chris Hemsworth, Charlize Theron headlining. That’s a 225 mil budget in 2023 adjusted for inflation.

So there’s a wide range of previous Snow White renditions, in terms of budget. It will be interesting to see where Disney falls.

Given what we know it'll probably be closer to Huntsman than Mirror.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

I've half asked this, but we are having so much troubles onboarding everyone to the reality of the backend.

But what if these bloated budgets also consist of some money Disney is actually paying itself and is reporting as revenue elsewhere?

I also wonder that about the park attraction costs.

This is part of the reason I find the focus on budgets and estimates of when a film becomes profitable hard to understand on its own terms. None of us here have access to Disney's books or could probably decipher them if we did, so we don't really know where all this money is going and at what point Disney has made money on a particular film.

I also find people drawing a straight line between the box office and parks a head scratcher. No-one is sitting in Burbank looking at the numbers for Elemental and saying "whelp, better raise the ticket prices at Disneyland again!" That's really not how it works.

 

[TP2000]

Several sources are claiming the marketing budget for Mermaid was $140 Million. Which makes sense since the production budget was $250 and they flogged the heck out of this in commercials and media presence in May and June, and I even saw a July 4th commercial this weekend using the film's fireworks scene as a reason to go see it.

$250 Million Production + $140 Million Marketing = $390 Million Total Budget

With a $390 Million breakeven point, that would seem to demand Mermaid provide a global box office of around $795 Million to get there.

Articles referencing the $140 Million marketing budget...

‘The Little Mermaid’ Budget Breakdown: How Successful Is the Live-Action Remake?

Are the film's box office returns enough to keep it swimming?

collider.com

‘Little Mermaid’ Swimming Against Strong Tides At Overseas Box Office, Leaving Break-Even In Question

In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live action title based on a treasured animated classic, 'The Little Mermaid' may lose money.

deadline.com

Inside Disney’s inclusive marketing efforts for ‘The Little Mermaid’

Brand partnership strategy aimed to ‘be inviting to Black audiences.’

adage.com

 

[Disney Irish]

Several sources are claiming the marketing budget for Mermaid was $140 Million. Which makes sense since the production budget was $250 and they flogged the heck out of this in commercials and media presence in May and June, and I even saw a July 4th commercial this weekend using the film's fireworks scene as a reason to go see it.

$250 Million Production + $140 Million Marketing = $390 Million Total Budget

With a $390 Million breakeven point, that would seem to demand Mermaid provide a global box office of around $795 Million to get there.

Articles referencing the $140 Million marketing budget...

‘The Little Mermaid’ Budget Breakdown: How Successful Is the Live-Action Remake?

Are the film's box office returns enough to keep it swimming?

collider.com

‘Little Mermaid’ Swimming Against Strong Tides At Overseas Box Office, Leaving Break-Even In Question

In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live action title based on a treasured animated classic, 'The Little Mermaid' may lose money.

deadline.com

Inside Disney’s inclusive marketing efforts for ‘The Little Mermaid’

Brand partnership strategy aimed to ‘be inviting to Black audiences.’

adage.com

Well at least two of the articles you posted point to an above $500M BO moves it into profitable range, so your math doesn't quite match the industry.