Disney's FY20 Q3 Earnings (8/4/20)

[Chef Mickey]

With respect, It seems Florida and perhaps the wider US didn’t.

Right, and you can’t make them...call us idiots, calls us whatever, but it’s in our culture and we won’t be told what to do. It’s not me, but there are many like that.

I am not a risk group and I wear my mask everywhere, for what it’s worth. Many do not and will not.

Still, Florida wasn’t doing anything and had no issues for months. It came later. Still hard to directly say why. I know people think they know, but no one really knows.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Business continues and things re-open but as we’ve seen from WDW and Universal if we don’t have cases under control the customers won’t come. It’s not as simple as re-open and the economy is saved. Let’s not turn this into another Covid thread though. So that’s the last I will say on that.

They’ll come. Give them time. Only been 3 weeks for Disney.

 

[WDW Pro]

I think somebody was warned to not talk about covid and “contaminate” the threads today...

Too much to ask?

Looks like your posts were deleted, eh?

With respect, It seems Florida and perhaps the wider US didn’t.

I'm afraid the way this works is the virus spreads quickly or slowly until herd immunity occurs. You treat it well or people die. If you hide, you slow the spread, but it comes back when you reemerge. Let's all hope for a quick vaccine and good therapeutics. I'd be more impressed with lockdowns if Sweden had seen catastrophic disease or Japan was experiencing no new waves. As is, the whole world just has to mitigate until we can medically annihilate this thing.

 

[Dan Deesnee]

We went through short term pain already. Call it poorly implemented, not long enough, whatever....but I think the argument would be it didn’t stop the virus anyway. Doing it again would have the same downsides and implementation issues with secondary effects.

Tell the small business owner he has to lose his livelihood because he has to be shut down. That is tragic for his family And has real domino effects. Depression, abuse, divorce, suicide, crime, etc. it’s a mess.

This 100x. Few people talk about the livelihoods lost, depression, alcoholism, destroyed families, etc. I get it, this virus is hitting the elderly hard. But lets not pretend that flu season every single year also has this effect.

Shutting everything down again simply won't work because we can't sit in our homes for 6+ months and we'll return to unrecoverable economic ruin. Take precautions, be smart, move on with our lives accepting the risk. That is my motto. It's the same logic I use to justify driving my car, going to a "dangerous city", and eating at a crowded restaurant during peak flu season.

 

[wm49rs]

Scrub a dub dub.

If the moderation here bothers you so, there are alternatives....

 

[WDW Pro]

If the moderation here bothers you so, there are alternatives....

And I've let them know that. I have expectations that I hope begin to be met.

 

[marni1971]

I'm afraid the way this works is the virus spreads quickly or slowly until herd immunity occurs.

I’m afraid it’s still being debated by those in the know if herd immunity can be achieved.

Much more has to be done otherwise Q4 results could be similar to this week.

 

[kong1802]

This 100x. Few people talk about the livelihoods lost, depression, alcoholism, destroyed families, etc. I get it, this virus is hitting the elderly hard. But lets not pretend that flu season every single year also has this effect.

Shutting everything down again simply won't work because we can't sit in our homes for 6+ months and we'll return to unrecoverable economic ruin. Take precautions, be smart, move on with our lives accepting the risk. That is my motto. It's the same logic I use to justify driving my car, going to a "dangerous city", and eating at a crowded restaurant during peak flu season.

Oh great, another flu and car comparison post.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Looks like your posts were deleted, eh?

I reported myself, you silly little Monchichi...



I’m old enough to understand cause/effect

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Oh great, another flu and car comparison post.

“DJ Dan spinning your favorite oldies ALLLL weekend long on WRRR - 105.3”

 

[Rose&Crown]

I agree, but I'm not sure it's that simple. Reaching herd immunity seems to be the only solution, and doing that as quickly (vaccine please) and without crippling your health care system suggests the only route. Until a vaccine comes about, I think our present is our future for many months and years.

You should look into the numbers of how herd immunity would be accomplished. It’s not nearly as simple as that. The governor of Mississippi explained it pretty well and I doubt him and I agree on much.

The math is there and it’s not pretty. If that’s what people think is the solution we’re in for a long ride.

 

[GoofGoof]

They’ll come. Give them time. Only been 3 weeks for Disney.

Tourism is quite a while from a recovery. If I had to put a date on it I’d say best case scenario is some level of uptick by Q2 2021 at the very earliest (uptick, not return to normal). Most analysts who follow Disney have written off 2020 as near zero from Parks. WDW today is primarily filled with locals and DVC owners who don’t want to waste their points. There’s a reason they delayed opening a bunch of resorts. It’s only going to get worse when school goes back. All of this is baked into the stock price already but it’s a sad reality that won’t go away for a little while. Even with a vaccine it may be 2022 or later before a return to profits as usual. Again, not the end of the world for TWDC and they have the balance sheet to hold out until better days come.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And I've let them know that. I have expectations that I hope begin to be met.

...I’m thinking Rteetz might need to claim you with a net and straightjacket...max rebo can probably use a friend

(No...that’s not really supposed to make sense)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They’ll come. Give them time. Only been 3 weeks for Disney.

Where are they coming from?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Tourism is quite a while from a recovery. If I had to put a date on it I’d say best case scenario is some level of uptick by Q2 2021 at the very earliest (uptick, not return to normal). Most analysts who follow Disney have written off 2020 as near zero from Parks. WDW today is primarily filled with locals and DVC owners who don’t want to waste their points. There’s a reason they delayed opening a bunch of resorts. It’s only going to get worse when school goes back. All of this is baked into the stock price already but it’s a sad reality that won’t go away for a little while. Even with a vaccine it may be 2022 or later before a return to profits as usual. Again, not the end of the world for TWDC and they have the balance sheet to hold out until better days come.

Dead on...all of it.

Late spring 2021 is cautiously optimistic

 

[WDW Pro]

I’m afraid it’s still being debated by those in the know if herd immunity can be achieved.

Much more has to be done otherwise Q4 results could be similar to this week.

I think if we find out this virus mutates regularly like the flu, we're in serious trouble for five years.

You should look into the numbers of how herd immunity would be accomplished. It’s not nearly as simple as that. The governor of Mississippi explained it pretty well and I doubt him and I agree on much.

The math is there and it’s not pretty. If that’s what people think is the solution we’re in for a long ride.

When I say herd immunity, I'm very hopeful that I'd achieved via vaccine. If we have to reach herd immunity naturally, we could see senior citizens globally reduced by 20% or more. That would be horrific.

 

[brianstl]

Those are the hooks...but they don’t keep people forever.

I doubt many new Netflix subscribers hang on for 10 years for access to Star Trek: TNG

You don't know some of the Trekkies I do.

 

[GoofGoof]

Dead on...all of it.

Late spring 2021 is cautiously optimistic

The positives are there’s a great deal of pent up demand for tourism and a large portion of workers in the economy that are largely not impacted by layoffs and furloughs with disposable income to spare. Add to that the $1,200 stimulus checks (maybe another round of those) and the extra $600 a week many of the furloughed workers got to keep them closer to whole and a lot of people will have the money to spend on travel and leisure activities again faster than some previous recessions. Not everyone, but this recession skewed much heavier towards hourly workers (restaurants, hotels, leisure, retail) than say 2008 when a lot of corporate and Wall Street type jobs were lost. For WDW the higher income demographic is more key.

The negative is that without a good vaccine or some large advances in treatment plus testing and tracing capability the demand will not reach its potential because too many people will sit it out and not want to take the risk. That’s why I (optimistically) think Spring has a realistic shot to see an uptick. Obviously if a vaccine comes through, but even without a vaccine if we had better treatment options (which are improving over time) and most importantly better capability to test and trace. This virus could be contained and controlled if we had a better plan and more resources dedicated to quick testing and ramped up infrastructure. A lot more people would be comfortable and feel safe traveling and visiting WDW if the spread was controlled.

 

[bluetiedye]

Some of you have a bizarre complex that forces you to turn every thread into armchair epidemiology.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

Seriously, your prized dog just took a financial poop on the carpet and the market is saying "good dog" because the size of the log could have been larger.

Sounds good to me!