mikejs78
Premium Member
Ha. My wife and I just watched Encounter at Farpoint on Netflix last night. (Man, did those early TNG episodes have bad acting... Glad they pulled it together after the first couple of seasons...).
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Disney's FY20 Q3 Earnings (8/4/20)
- Thread starter brb1006
- Start date
Ha. My wife and I just watched Encounter at Farpoint on Netflix last night. (Man, did those early TNG episodes have bad acting... Glad they pulled it together after the first couple of seasons...).
Ideally the stock market represents the real value (the equity) of companies. To use an idealized example: If a company is worth a hundred million dollars and has issued a hundred million shares, then each share is worth one dollar. If someone wants to buy my ten shares, I should be happy to sell them off for ten dollars.
If that company is doing really well and its profits will double its worth to 200 million dollars, then each share is now worth 2 dollars. If someone wants to buy my shares, I'll tell them that it will cost them 20 dollars, not 10. But... why should I sell? The company's doing great. I expect its value to continue to grow. In one year it grew 100% and so did my investment in its stock. I'd be crazy to sell off my stock at the new value of $2 a share. But the person who wants those shares also wants to get in on the tremendous returns in this company, and so, they offer more than the current value. They may offer to buy them at $3 a share or $4 a share in the hope that years later, they can reap the large return on investment.
And that's how shares become divorced from their "real value" of equity divided by the number of shares. They get bought at higher prices by people hoping the company will grow and increase their investment. If the company looks like its failing, they'll be ready to unload the stocks at a discount/loss.
So, let's consider Disney. During a time when so many big name companies are filing for bankruptcy (e.g., Lord & Taylor) and the expectation that Disney would be in horrible condition thanks to parks and filming production closing down, it turns out that Disney's operations turned a small profit! And Disney has ready access to $40 Billion if they need it (plus even more if they have to). It's clear: Disney can weather a full year of COVID while other entertainment empires and many other businesses may collapse. Disney stocks are safe. And when COVID is over, Disney is poised to fully rebound (even if it takes a few years because of a recession).
If you had to buy stocks right now in the hope that they will rise to where they were before COVID... where would you put your money? People are betting on Disney. And the rush to grab Disney stocks is pushing the cost of stocks higher and higher. People who have the stocks shouldn't really be wanting to sell. So, brokers are bidding higher and higher to convince current holders to sell.
The market buys and sells based on what the future is expected to be, not on current value. Speculators, who aren't interested in actual worth of equity, are just trying to game buy-low-sell-high as quickly as they can, which makes the ups and downs greater than they should be.
Dan Deesnee
Well-Known Member
Hey I didn't bring up the virus, that was someone else. I'm also sick of debating it.
I was enjoying the financial / stock market / business discussion and debate. Not much else to do I guess but speculate when it comes to these earnings. They are what they are and the market has chosen how it wants to react.
DJ Dan signing out!
I was enjoying the financial / stock market / business discussion and debate. Not much else to do I guess but speculate when it comes to these earnings. They are what they are and the market has chosen how it wants to react.
DJ Dan signing out!
I am talking about the almost $30 billion they have added in the past 12 months that didn't come from the Fox deal. Everything that you say about their balance sheet is true. That doesn't change the fact that their balance sheet was much better a year ago. A balance sheet can be a non issue when it comes to cash on hand and cash flow, but still not be nearly as good as it was a year ago. All of those things can be true and are true in this case.
Netflix can be way overvalued and Disney's big climb today can be overvaluing the stock some. Both of those things can be true at the same time.
Yes, a better than should have been expected result should mean a climb stock price. The stock should have gone up today. That said the numbers in a rational, not flooded with liquidity market shouldn't have sparked a nearly 11% climb that it was at earlier today. All of those things can be true at the same time.
Disney, IMO, is a much better stock to own than Netflix. I own some personally. I am not going to short it.
I can't believe Steve isn't paying him like he is paying the rest of us.
WDW Pro
Well-Known Member
No payment needed, just fair moderation with clearly defined rules and equal application. I'm not interested in being unable to verify my statements are accurate to what I typed or represent my viewpoint.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Very good analysis...
We have two extremes here today...some are displaying posts steeped in the thrill of victory...others are wallowing in the agony of their own defeat.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
...just....won’t...quit
easyrowrdw
Well-Known Member
Just when I think maybe I'm being too hard on the guy... Yikes.
WDW Pro
Well-Known Member
Who are you, again?
Aha!
UNCgolf
Well-Known Member
I already told you why your posts were deleted -- it's pretty obvious. There's no issue with you wanting to believe discredited information, but there's also no reason for you to litter it into your posts because it's completely irrelevant to the topic at hand. Stop tossing out little conspiracy theory tidbits mixed in with actual Disney information and your posts won't be edited.
Probably 98% of what you say is totally fine but for some reason you just can't help yourself with the other stuff even when it's completely unrelated to anything else you're talking about.
WDW Pro
Well-Known Member
I don't post conspiracy.
Can I send you a bill for a new keyboard ?
I can't get the coffee out of my current one .
WDW Pro
Well-Known Member
Name the conspiracy.
I can't. Your posts keep getting deleted.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
Corn tortillas are better than flour!!
UNCgolf
Well-Known Member
Okay fine, let's say your insinuations are 100% true and even pretend I agree with you about them.
They're still not relevant to the topics at hand, and they're politically charged (regardless of anyone's personal leanings). Just leave them out and I guarantee there won't be any issues. It's really not that difficult. You must have noticed that the vast majority of what you say isn't deleted or edited in any way.
I'm not trying to argue with you -- I think you post some valuable information and I'm glad you're here. I'm honestly trying to help you understand why you occasionally have things deleted/edited because it would be very easy for you to make it stop.
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TRUTH!