Disney's FY20 Q3 Earnings (8/4/20)

Chef Mickey

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
brianstl said:
I am talking about the almost $30 billion they have added in the past 12 months that didn't come from the Fox deal. Everything that you say about their balance sheet is true. That doesn't change the fact that their balance sheet was much better a year ago. A balance sheet can be a non issue when it comes to cash on hand and cash flow, but still not be nearly as good as it was a year ago. All of those things can be true and are true in this case.

Netflix can be way overvalued and Disney's big climb today can be overvaluing the stock some. Both of those things can be true at the same time.

Yes, a better than should have been expected result should mean a climb stock price. The stock should have gone up today. That said the numbers in a rational, not flooded with liquidity market shouldn't have sparked a nearly 11% climb that it was at earlier today. All of those things can be true at the same time.

Disney, IMO, is a much better stock to own than Netflix. I own some personally. I am not going to short it.
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Their debt to equity is under 0.50 - completely reasonable for a company of this size with $13B in earning power annually. They raised money to maintain maximum flexibility depending on what happens. That was prudent and they likely won't need it, but did so just in case.

I'll make the other argument. Disney is really no different than it was a year ago. The macroeconomic picture has changed, but the company and demand for its products and services are unharmed. Once the macro picture improves (already starting), Disney will once again be fine. If we were talking about mismanagement or a huge shift in consumer tastes, it would be worrying. This is just one of those things we have to get through.

For me, Disney has never been stronger. A respiratory virus doesn't change that one iota in the long term. Short term, anything can happen, but is largely irrelevant unless you're a trader.
 
Chef Mickey

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
Tourism is quite a while from a recovery. If I had to put a date on it I’d say best case scenario is some level of uptick by Q2 2021 at the very earliest (uptick, not return to normal). Most analysts who follow Disney have written off 2020 as near zero from Parks. WDW today is primarily filled with locals and DVC owners who don’t want to waste their points. There’s a reason they delayed opening a bunch of resorts. It’s only going to get worse when school goes back. All of this is baked into the stock price already but it’s a sad reality that won’t go away for a little while. Even with a vaccine it may be 2022 or later before a return to profits as usual. Again, not the end of the world for TWDC and they have the balance sheet to hold out until better days come.
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Your speculation isn't very meaningful, but so what if it takes a year or 2?

Let me tell you something about analysts. They know nothing and guess like everyone else.
 
WDW Pro

WDW Pro

Well-Known Member
UNCgolf said:
Okay fine, let's say your insinuations are 100% true and even pretend I agree with you about them.

They're still not relevant to the topics at hand, and they're politically charged (regardless of anyone's personal leanings). Just leave them out and I guarantee there won't be any issues. It's really not that difficult. You must have noticed that the vast majority of what you say isn't deleted or edited in any way.

I'm not trying to argue with you -- I think you post some valuable information and I'm glad you're here. I'm honestly trying to help you understand why you occasionally have things deleted/edited because it would be very easy for you to make it stop.
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Unfortunately it seems that many things related to Disney lately are intrinsically linked to political, governmental, social, cultural, medical, etc, issues. Sometimes that 2% I discuss is extremely important to understanding what's really going on and what is going to happen.
 
wdwmagic

wdwmagic

Administrator
Moderator
Premium Member
WDW Pro said:
Unfortunately it seems that many things related to Disney lately are intrinsically linked to political, governmental, social, cultural, medical, etc, issues. Sometimes that 2% I discuss is extremely important to understanding what's really going on and what is going to happen.
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Yes they are, and we can use Politics and Social Issues for that
 
UNCgolf

UNCgolf

Well-Known Member
WDW Pro said:
Unfortunately it seems that many things related to Disney lately are intrinsically linked to political, governmental, social, cultural, medical, etc, issues. Sometimes that 2% I discuss is extremely important to understanding what's really going on and what is going to happen.
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Sure, but there's a difference between discussing Covid in general (which is unavoidable) and tossing in modifiers in front of the word virus (just as one example). That's where it gets politically charged, and it's completely irrelevant to how it's affecting WDW and Disney as a whole. The fact that the virus exists is of major importance, but where it actually came from really makes no difference for general Disney operations. I think that's the point they're trying to get across.

EDIT: Sorry, I posted this before seeing @wdwmagic's posts.
 
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GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Chef Mickey said:
Your speculation isn't very meaningful, but so what if it takes a year or 2?

Let me tell you something about analysts. They know nothing and guess like everyone else.
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My opinion is my opinion. Whether you agree or not has no bearing on whether its meaningful. You said people would be back, Disney has only been open 3 weeks. To me that is implying you think there will be an increase in demand soon. I agree, people will be back but I think it will take a while. Probably years to get back to what was the old normal and I think a big reason is that a large portion of their customer base doesn’t feel comfortable traveling to WDW right now. That’s my opinion and it’s backed by the current attendance numbers. Even Chapek said they were disappointed in the numbers.

As far as analysts go, its naive to think someone who follows the company for a living knows nothing. I never said they had a crystal ball and could predict everything with 100% accuracy, but they certainly know plenty about the business.
 
winstongator

winstongator

Well-Known Member
Around 18:00 point, "At Walt Disney World we are achieving our objective of driving a positive net contribution at current attendance levels, and expect improvement as Covid situation in Florida improves."

If they are 'making a positive net contribution' I'm assuming that is cash-flow positive. If they are cash-flow positive now at current attendance levels, how much more do they take in when they are drawing 5x as many guests? How significant is reduction in cap-ex to being cash-flow positive at this attendance level. What are staffing and labor costs compared to a past August? How do these scale - what would a graph of revenue & expenses vs. attendance levels look like?
 
WDW Pro

WDW Pro

Well-Known Member
UNCgolf said:
Sure, but there's a difference between discussing Covid in general (which is unavoidable) and tossing in modifiers in front of the word virus (just as one example). That's where it gets politically charged, and it's completely irrelevant to how it's affecting WDW and Disney as a whole. The fact that the virus exists is of major importance, but where it actually came from really makes no difference for general Disney operations.
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Right, but let's say we're discussing a virus from China that is impacting different states in different ways, thus impacting Disney's business model. So then I chat about that, return later, and see large swaths of my posts are deleted or (worse) sections of what I said are deleted with no explanation. Meanwhile other posts stay up, because it's impossible to discuss almost anything these days without these topics coming up. That's where my beef comes from: I don't like being unable to verify my posts represent what I typed.
 

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