News Disneyland Resort in California plans to begin phased reopening July 9

Disney Irish

Well-Known Member
I imagine if it is a real thing they are considering, it will include making guests pay just to be on Main Street, and then charging them for whatever dining and shopping they do. See: literally every other Disneyland decision for the last some-odd years.
Not only that but see their peers, Knott's for example, doing the very same thing. So yes I expect they are considering it very seriously, especially if they've gotten indication the closure might last longer than September.
 

cmwade77

Well-Known Member
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Seems a bit odd that when you're looking at the entire history of the severity of COVID cases you use the metric as per population... which is a perfectly fine metric to look at.

But... when you try to present a snapshot of how things look right now, all of a sudden, you switch your metric and no longer use a per population figure. Instead, you use the immediate absolute number of cases right now.

Any reason why that switch?

Anyhoo, when you get a snapshot of what's happening right now across the country, guess who's ranking number seven among all the states per population?

View attachment 491549

Also, you need to look at trends. A snapshot of the present may not seem so bad right now, especially when you attempt to trivialize it by comparing it to historical out-of-control hot spots like NY, but where are the numbers going? If they're on a geometric curve upward, then things can get very bad, very fast... like it was for NY.

View attachment 491550

And look, a geometric upward curve in the trend line. That you started to beat. And then failed.

You keep comparing how you're not like NY, except... you are if you look at the upward curve. NY's upward curve looked like that once, too.

And it seems you don't want to be like NY, so, you need to make hard choices and sacrifices so you don't become another NY.

The good news is that you're rate of positives is relatively low (~5%). The bad news is that's it's been plateauing for a long time. That means every time you all in CA let your guard down, the cases will rise geometrically. You want to get the positivity rate under 1% and then things can go back to normal, even before there's a vaccine.

View attachment 491551
California also has some of the highest testing per capita, but the reality is if you remove the number of deaths that would have occurred anyway during the time frame we have been tracking COVID and account for the total number of deaths (not counting suicides and the like), you find that there is no significant increase in the number of deaths during this time period than there normally would have been. In other words the majority of those who "died from COVID" would likely have died this year anyway, as a majority are older than 78, have underlying conditions, etc.
 

cmwade77

Well-Known Member
Back on topic, my strong suspicion is that the state will allow theme parks to begin reopening some time after labor day. I personally think waiting that long is a mistake, as the state could use the theme parks and other entertainment venues to reduce crowding at other venues like the beaches and it would also head off people traveling to other states just to find something fun to go and do over the long weekend. But I strongly suspect this is the route that will be taken for a variety of reasons.
 

Askimosita

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
Back on topic, my strong suspicion is that the state will allow theme parks to begin reopening some time after labor day. I personally think waiting that long is a mistake, as the state could use the theme parks and other entertainment venues to reduce crowding at other venues like the beaches and it would also head off people traveling to other states just to find something fun to go and do over the long weekend. But I strongly suspect this is the route that will be taken for a variety of reasons.

I agree with you, but I also fear that the same thing that happened around July 4 will happen again, with spikes and with shut downs. So give it a month after Labor Day weekend and hair salons will reopen, then they will consider theme parks, and oh look, it’s November 😢
 
Back on topic, my strong suspicion is that the state will allow theme parks to begin reopening some time after labor day. I personally think waiting that long is a mistake, as the state could use the theme parks and other entertainment venues to reduce crowding at other venues like the beaches and it would also head off people traveling to other states just to find something fun to go and do over the long weekend. But I strongly suspect this is the route that will be taken for a variety of reasons.
Doubtful
 
California also has some of the highest testing per capita, but the reality is if you remove the number of deaths that would have occurred anyway during the time frame we have been tracking COVID and account for the total number of deaths (not counting suicides and the like), you find that there is no significant increase in the number of deaths during this time period than there normally would have been. In other words the majority of those who "died from COVID" would likely have died this year anyway, as a majority are older than 78, have underlying conditions, etc.
Lol Oh really? How’s that? My grandparents are both older than 78 with underlying conditions and they weren’t going to die this year, meanwhile my uncle who was 47 with none died from Covid in less than a week
 

MisterPenguin

Rumormonger
Premium Member
California also has some of the highest testing per capita, but the reality is if you remove the number of deaths that would have occurred anyway during the time frame we have been tracking COVID and account for the total number of deaths (not counting suicides and the like), you find that there is no significant increase in the number of deaths during this time period than there normally would have been. In other words the majority of those who "died from COVID" would likely have died this year anyway, as a majority are older than 78, have underlying conditions, etc.

You got a source for that?
 

Tamandua

Well-Known Member
Do you guys realize that about 1 in 6 California residents has been infected already? It sounds impossible, but here are the numbers:

As of yesterday, the confirmed case count was 625,307.
California has a population of 39.51 million.
That makes 1.58% of the population confirmed cases.
The CDC estimates the actual case count is 10 times the number of confirmed cases (probably higher, but let's say 10).
That makes 15.8% of the population.
Divide that by 100 and you get about 6.3.

So reasonable estimates put infection at 1 in 6 people after 5 months of lockdowns. I dunno about you guys but I don't think the results have been worth the price.
 

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TP2000

Well-Known Member
I’m using CDC data right from the website
Total cases: #1
Cases last 7 days: number 1 and it’s not even close, 21k more than the next state
Total deaths: #3

Ah, well that makes sense since there are 40 Million people who live in California. California is the most populous state in the union by a longshot. Number 2 is Texas, and they only have 29 Million. New York State is 4th with 19 Million.

California has the most vehicle deaths, the most suicides, the most drug overdoses, the most divorces, the most pizza parties, the most cancer deaths, the most Starbucks, the most cars, the most of everything because it has the most people.

The majority of US states only have about 3 or 4 Million people living in the entire state. Many western states are physically large, but sparsely populated like Idaho with only 1.7 Million, or Montana with barely 1 Million, or Wyoming with less than 600,000.

Orange County alone has 3.3 Million people, the same amount as Idaho, Montana and Wyoming combined.

Orange County = 948 Square Miles, 3.3 Million People
Idaho, Montana & Wyoming = 330,000 Square Miles, 3.3 Million People
 
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TP2000

Well-Known Member
Do you guys realize that about 1 in 6 California residents has been infected already? It sounds impossible, but here are the numbers:

As of yesterday, the confirmed case count was 625,307.
California has a population of 39.51 million.
That makes 1.58% of the population confirmed cases.
The CDC estimates the actual case count is 10 times the number of confirmed cases (probably higher, but let's say 10).
That makes 15.8% of the population.
Divide that by 100 and you get about 6.3.

So reasonable estimates put infection at 1 in 6 people after 5 months of lockdowns. I dunno about you guys but I don't think the results have been worth the price.

10 times the confirmed case count is a very, very conservative estimation of actual cases. Stanford University did an antibody test earlier in the year and found that the actual case count was likely 50 times higher than the confirmed cases just in Santa Clara County. 50 times the confirmed cases!
 

Tamandua

Well-Known Member
I think I had it earlier in the year.

That being said, I don't know anyone who knows anyone who has died from it.

My dad and I both had the worst illnesses of our lives in early February. We both eventually got tested for antibodies as tests were impossible to come by when we had it. We were both negative. Not sure if the tests are that unreliable or we just happened to have something as bad or worse than covid, but it makes me think the statistics are lower than they should be. If we didn't have covid, then I wonder why no one is freaking out over whatever we did have, because my dad didn't think he would survive it. I never thought I'd come close to dying when I was sick, but it was still terrible.
 

Emmanuel

Well-Known Member
Back on topic, my strong suspicion is that the state will allow theme parks to begin reopening some time after labor day. I personally think waiting that long is a mistake, as the state could use the theme parks and other entertainment venues to reduce crowding at other venues like the beaches and it would also head off people traveling to other states just to find something fun to go and do over the long weekend. But I strongly suspect this is the route that will be taken for a variety of reasons.

My guess is that with 1 county taken off the monitoring list with San Diego being taken off the list as early as tomorrow as stated by Gavin, we’ll see a potential slow domino effect of other counties getting off the list. Don’t know what’s the current COVID status for Orange is but I imagine that both OC and LA will probably be among the last to get off the list
 

Tamandua

Well-Known Member
It's crazy. I live in Los Angeles and statistically I should know a bunch of people who've had covid, but I don't know any. One person tested positive where my wife works (asymptomatic). That's the closest I've been. None of the 50 people at my job have had it. Sometimes I wonder if everyone I know had it and the tests just don't work. Everyone at work was sick in February, but I don't know of anyone testing positive for the virus or antibodies.
 

Nirya

Well-Known Member
10 times the confirmed case count is a very, very conservative estimation of actual cases. Stanford University did an antibody test earlier in the year and found that the actual case count was likely 50 times higher than the confirmed cases just in Santa Clara County. 50 times the confirmed cases!

They had to walk that whole report back once their methodology was proved to be faulty.
 

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