The million dollar question is what will
capacity be?
The parks currently only reach capacity a few days a year (Christmas, New Years, Easter, etc) so unless they have plans to drastically reduce capacity I don’t see how requiring reservations will change the guest experience at all in the parks. It might make scheduling and inventory easier for TDA but it won’t make the parks any less crowded for the guests.
I’ve seen several estimates that max capacity at DL is 85,000 guests, average daily attendance appears to be approximately 53,000 (IAAPA reported annual attendance of 18,666,000 divided by 364)... what’s the point of requiring reservations if they’re already 32,000 people below the capacity they’ve set for themselves?
Because their "close the gates" cap is way too big. A lower cap would be much more sensible.
But because traditional APs and most day-tickets aren't restricted to a particular date, then, theoretically, you can get a million people all showing up on the same day looking to get in. Something like that happens on Christmas and New Years precisely because of unrestricted APs and tickets.
The average is just an average. The park may be 'empty' on a weekday in September but 'packed' on a weekend in Decembers.
When the park is 'packed,' people's enjoyment of the park is diminished. Iger, in a quarterly call, mentioned how just increasing attendance isn't a solution for greater 'yield' because as the parks become more crowded, then guest satisfaction goes down (as well as the brand and spending).
Thus all the stuff going on the past few years has been to control attendance from spiking and to increase attendance in the off-peak days. Lots of carrots and sticks. The new AP system for DL has a lot of those carrots and sticks to tamp down on peak attendance days and encourage off-peak attendance.
The only other solution would be a reservation system with a manageable and comfortable park capacity limit.
More people want to go to DL and to do so for many more days than DL can handle. When people bemoan "they're pricing out the middle class!", just imagine if it only cost $40 a day to attend. It would be Christmas-level attendance every day.
Disney is a victim of their own success.