Disney, VR/AR, and Apple's WWDC 2023

[Sirwalterraleigh]

View attachment 721703

Will that give me virtual Chubb rub?

 

[UNCgolf]

I think that is really what is going to happen with VR. Apple is going to be the one to make this breakthrough and become a real usable product, just like the iPhone.

AR/MR, sure. That's going to take off and be a big deal.

VR, though? As I said above, I think it's unlikely to ever be a widely used product because of the numerous obstacles. There are already high quality VR headsets and have been for years -- there is a market for them, and it's not going to go away, but it's really difficult to envision a scenario where they turn into something that's used on a daily basis by the average person.

I think the iPad/tablets in general are actually in that category to an extent, although they're more popular/widely used now than I think VR alone (i.e. not AR/MR) ever will be. There was a brief window where people thought tablets would replace desktops and laptops entirely (see Microsoft's disastrous Windows 8), but they seem to have settled in as a secondary/supplemental item for most consumers rather than an outright replacement.

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

iPhone was ready for consumers on day 1, which is why it was able to be so widely adopted so quickly, even with competition from Google/Motorola, and Blackberry (remember those?).

The outlook on this thing is far from certain, as most analysts are forecasting a mixed outlook on this thing. While no one is downplaying the technological achievement, the biggest concern is that the initial price point will tarnish any future growth, where most will see it as something primarily for Apple supper fans and/or a toy for those able to afford it. Worryingly most don't discount that this will become nothing more than expensive paperweight an after the initial excitement subsides.

The initial Betamax machines (the competition to old VCR) was released at a price point of over $2K back in the mid 70's. No one though there would be a market at those prices for time shifting tv viewing or watching movies at home either. Now the technology is basically built into your TV/Cable box.

 

[monothingie]

The initial Betamax machines (the competition to old VCR) was released at a price point of over $2K back in the mid 70's. No one though there would be a market at those prices for time shifting tv viewing or watching movies at home either. Now the technology is basically built into your TV/Cable box.

The Betamax was a failure for Sony for consumer electronics. Funnily enough, when this came out yesterday, I instantly associated this with Beta.

 

[wdwmagic]

iPhone was ready for consumers on day 1, which is why it was able to be so widely adopted so quickly, even with competition from Google/Motorola, and Blackberry (remember those?).

The outlook on this thing is far from certain, as most analysts are forecasting a mixed outlook on this thing. While no one is downplaying the technological achievement, the biggest concern is that the initial price point will tarnish any future growth, where most will see it as something primarily for Apple supper fans and/or a toy for those able to afford it. Worryingly most don't discount that this will become nothing more than expensive paperweight an after the initial excitement subsides.

The rumor mill for Apple Vision is that a lower price non-pro version is not far behind in the pipeline. I think the $3500 will work to get this out of the door and into people's hands. Enough people will buy it to get the concept launched. A lot of people will want one based on the initial version, and Apple will make it more accessible for those people from a price point.

While the $3500 is certainly not cheap, on the scale of high-end computer hardware, it is not outrageous. This isn't Starcruiser pricing, and it will last a lot longer than 2 days. I still think there is a massive market out there that will pay high-end laptop prices for Apple Vision.

 

[wdwmagic]

AR/MR, sure. That's going to take off and be a big deal.

VR, though? As I said above, I think it's unlikely to ever be a widely used product because of the numerous obstacles. There are already high quality VR headsets and have been for years -- there is a market for them, and it's not going to go away, but it's really difficult to envision a scenario where they turn into something that's used on a daily basis by the average person.

The existing products are all doomed because they are enthusiast niche products. Typical user doesn't want to get involved in that. But Apple will make it work for everyone, and with their proven rack record, people will buy into it.

 

[wdwmagic]

The initial Betamax machines (the competition to old VCR) was released at a price point of over $2K back in the mid 70's. No one though there would be a market at those prices for time shifting tv viewing or watching movies at home either. Now the technology is basically built into your TV/Cable box.

So many of these new product categories were viewed like this. Thinking of digital cameras, electric cars, iPhone, Apple Watch, even iPad.

 

[GhostHost1000]

maybe I'm wrong but I just don't see people wearing a VR headset taking off like other Apple products. It's cool, but not really for extended periods of time. I think this will just be a new wow trend...for awhile

it may last longer than Google Glass however

 

[UNCgolf]

The existing products are all doomed because they are enthusiast niche products. Typical user doesn't want to get involved in that. But Apple will make it work for everyone, and with their proven rack record, people will buy into it.

I don't think that's it. The biggest issue with VR is that it requires completely isolating yourself from your surrounding environment, and that's just not something that works for the majority of the population most of the time -- either because they don't want to (even for simple reasons like multitasking; you can't watch a movie and do laundry at the same time if you're watching the movie in VR) or because they just can't due to lifestyle factors (children being a major one), physical impairments (motion sickness, vision, etc.) or other reasons. I know several people with VR headsets (the Oculus is self-contained and not wildly expensive, and has sold 15+ million units) and none of them get regular use for various reasons.

There's absolutely a market for VR and it's not going away, but the idea that it's going to become the next big thing has never felt logical to me. As I said above, it's probably closer to iPads/tablets as something that will settle in as a secondary item for the average person instead of iPhones/smart phones that became the standard.

None of that applies to this Apple headset, though, since it's not solely VR. The AR/MR market has room for huge growth.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The initial Betamax machines (the competition to old VCR) was released at a price point of over $2K back in the mid 70's. No one though there would be a market at those prices for time shifting tv viewing or watching movies at home either. Now the technology is basically built into your TV/Cable box.

Yeah…and Betamax failed.

Home video succeeded when the cost was brought down…$400 vhs and home videos to rent for $2 and buy for $24.99

Point taken though…we’re just along way off.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

maybe I'm wrong but I just don't see people wearing a VR headset taking off like other Apple products. It's cool, but not really for extended periods of time. I think this will just be a new wow trend...for awhile

it may last longer than Google Glass however

I’ll do it if I can get some decent Star Wars material on it…which means I’ll have to write my own

 

[lazyboy97o]

The rumor mill for Apple Vision is that a lower price non-pro version is not far behind in the pipeline. I think the $3500 will work to get this out of the door and into people's hands. Enough people will buy it to get the concept launched. A lot of people will want one based on the initial version, and Apple will make it more accessible for those people from a price point.

While the $3500 is certainly not cheap, on the scale of high-end computer hardware, it is not outrageous. This isn't Starcruiser pricing, and it will last a lot longer than 2 days. I still think there is a massive market out there that will pay high-end laptop prices for Apple Vision.

I was surprised by the $3500 because it seemed lower than expected. Going into the event it seemed like there were decent expectations of a $5000 headset. And it’s interesting how people are a bit aghast at $3500 when Apple announced a product that does start at twice the price during the same presentation.

 

[ChrisFL]

News: Apple purchased the company that made AR for the Mario Kart ride:

Apple has bought an AR headset startup called Mira

Mira makes headsets for other companies and the military.

www.theverge.com

 

[ChrisFL]

I don't think that's it. The biggest issue with VR is that it requires completely isolating yourself from your surrounding environment, and that's just not something that works for the majority of the population most of the time -- either because they don't want to (even for simple reasons like multitasking; you can't watch a movie and do laundry at the same time if you're watching the movie in VR) or because they just can't due to lifestyle factors (children being a major one), physical impairments (motion sickness, vision, etc.) or other reasons. I know several people with VR headsets (the Oculus is self-contained and not wildly expensive, and has sold 15+ million units) and none of them get regular use for various reasons.

There's absolutely a market for VR and it's not going away, but the idea that it's going to become the next big thing has never felt logical to me. As I said above, it's probably closer to iPads/tablets as something that will settle in as a secondary item for the average person instead of iPhones/smart phones that became the standard.

None of that applies to this Apple headset, though, since it's not solely VR. The AR/MR market has room for huge growth.

Agreed. VR is great but it's not practical without some real-world passthru or full AR capability. Luckily the more recent Quest headsets have at least a camera passthru and some pretty good ways to keep you aware of your surroundings if you go out of your "zone" you set up

 

[MrPromey]

Well it’s going to have to achieve a lower price point to go mainstream. I don’t know what that price point is but it’s not $3500.

Add tax, apple care, accessories probably 5k.

The first iPhone was ridiculed as ridiculously expensive starting at $599 for the 4 gb model and Apple's insistence that there be no carrier subsidies offered for it when signing a contract which at the time was common to the point of being expected.*

I spent $1,200 plus tax for my current iPhone...

Just sayin'.


*they eventually dropped the price to $499 and allowed AT&T to offer contract subsidies which in a way, makes the current difference in price even wider.

 

[ChrisFL]

The original Iphone wasn't even 3G capable!

 

[monothingie]

The original Iphone wasn't even 3G capable!

Intentionally done, because AT&T didn't have a 3G network that was built out enough to provide high quality service.

 

[MrPromey]

Right now the PSVR2 is at $599 with a game bundle. Without the game it goes for $549...

Unfortunately this is Apple were talking about and doubt they'd budge..

Don't forget about that $500-$600 PS5 you need for it to work, too.

And the fact that it must remain physically tethered in one location to that since the actual brains of the setup are all inside that PS5.

Tying it to a non-portable gaming system adds to the costs, reduces the use cases both in portability and in functionality (don't expect to be doing anything remotely productivity based with the PSVR).

The PSVR2 also offers no tracking without the controllers, no environmental depth tracking and is 100% VR with zero support for AR/MR.

It's the same as this thing from Apple about the like a pickup and a sedan are both vehicles you drive on a road.

I know a little about this since we have the original PSVR and the Meta Quest 2.

The Meta Quest Pro clocking in at $1k is a better match though many of the specs are lower.

I have no plans to drop $3.5k on this 1.0 product* but lets try to keep the comparisons fair.

*If it can some day replace my laptop and maybe downgrade to a cheaper phone, I might change my mind but this isn't going to be the device that does that for me.

 

[networkpro]

So many of these new product categories were viewed like this. Thinking of digital cameras, electric cars, iPhone, Apple Watch, even iPad.

Newton, Pipin, QuickTake 200, iPod Hifi, G4 Cube, USB Hockeypuck mouse, TAM, AirPower ... all were "innovative products" that consumers just didnt like.

 

[Vinnie Mac]

Never ceases to amaze me how those who apparently grew up with and loved the original EPCOT Center are so resistant to change (technologically and culturally)

GREAT point.