I see people continue to bring up (not just here but everywhere) that people have doubted the success of various Apple products and they've all been successful. I really don't see how AR headsets can take off though.
If my eyes felt strained after 5 minutes of riding Mario Kart, how will people want to watch a 2 hour movie on Disney+?
I bought my first computer in the late 90's. It had 1gb of total storage in a hard drive that had physical dimensions of about 5in x 8in. It had 8
mb of ram, an Intel Pentium 120 CPU which ran at a blazing
120 megaherz and came with a 33600 baud modem (that's around 33kb per second as a maximum theoretical throughput on a perfect dial-up connection).
It came with a 14" monitor.
The computer was capable of an 800x600 pixel display.
The computer itself was about two feet tall, 10 inches wide and over two feet long. It weighed about 30 pounds.
The 14" monitor was about 18" squared and weighed around 35-40 pounds.
Again, this was in the late 90's.
If someone suggested I strap a few car batteries to all that and carry it all around with me, I'd have looked at them like they were insane.
You talk about eyes feeling strained. My
back would have been feeling strained.
The iPhone I have sitting here next to me has 256gb of storage, 6
gb of ram,
two 3.23 gigahertz and
four 1.82 gigahertz processors. It has a built in display with a resolution of of 2532x1170 pixels. It has a battery built in that gets me more than a day's worth of usage and wireless access to the internet at speeds rivaling modern broadband almost anywhere I go.
The entire thing is about 1/10 the size of just the hard drive from that massive computer and it weighs about 1/20 as much as again, just the 1gb of storage from that device, alone.
It took almost 30 years to get from that computer to this phone and the transition was more of an evolution than a revolution but if you looked at my first computer to what came 30 years before that without looking at anything in-between, it would have looked like dark magic, even more so.
Between then and now, the pace of technological innovation has sped up in ways that were previously inconceivable.
It's still speeding up.
It won't take 30 years for that kind of change going forward.
Nobody today would be even remotely happy with the first iPhone. Everyone would call it useless garbage with a tiny blurry screen, slow-as-hell connection, no apps and horrible batterly life... and that was only 16 years ago.
Aside from the difference between watching something in AR vs pure VR, displays are already improving and comparing a theme park display to a state-of-the-art private personal display today is apples to oranges already but just the same, eye strain used to be a serious problem for people just 20 years ago looking at 10"-14" CRT monitors and now we spend all day staring at flat panel displays that are as much as 4 times as large and somehow our eyes don't explode.
I've watched whole 3D movies on my Quest 2 and survived to tell the tale... and that wasn't even high-end when it came out 3 years ago.
It's hard to say if this stuff will ever go mainstream or not but if it doesn't, it won't be because of the tech. The tech already exists and with Apple in the fray, it'll progress rapidly now.
The question is, will people get over feeling like idiots walking around in public with something like this strapped to their heads?
I remember when the Airpods came out, I thought people looked like absolute morons wearing them.
How the hell was that ever going to catch on?
Anyway, I've given up trying to predict the future when it comes to tech, especially in regards to what'll
never happen.