News Disney Riviera Resort announced

[eliza61nyc]

ok, ok. lol I feel like the kid that just knock down the stacked can display at the supermarket and caused an chain reaction.

thanks for the clarification @MickeyMinnieMom , the first post sounded so harsh. . Your original post said "how many of them can do a cost analysis"? now I'm not in the timeshare business so I definitely believe you have seen some eye raising situations. but I do hate this "holier than thou" attitude that I find persuasive here. I always want to know how you guys know so much about other peoples financial situation. How you know folks are going into debt? or whether or not they can afford up charges?

Anyway I assure you my friends DO know how to do a cost/break even analysis and my late husband and I were able to wrap our little brains around it. lol

Either way I've got no horse in this race, I'm more the C'est la vie type gal. Your money, your choice.

 

[nickys]

@nickys

We can have a healthy difference opinion directly...no need to quote me indirectly to someone else.

This thing will sell and people will love it. Not my cup of tea for many reasons - a lot of them systemic

Well I did, she thought I did so mistakenly.

Thing is though, I agree everyone can disagree about things. But calling people stupid for disagreeing makes no sense to me.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

ok, ok. lol I feel like the kid that just knock down the stacked can display at the supermarket and caused an chain reaction.

thanks for the clarification maybe if would not have sounded so harsh if your second post was actually your first one. Your original post said "how many of them can do a cost analysis"

Meh. I don’t think there’s anything inflammatory in my original post that you took issue with:

How many of them can/do perform a break even analysis? Just feels like this one requires a higher ratio of uneducated consumers than DVC of yore... but perhaps some people’s particulars actually get to not-entirely-unreasonable numbers. I couldn’t get there.

I learned long ago that there is no way to avoid offending ABSOLUTELY EVERYONE. I’m ok with that.

I think you and I very often agree on things around here. I don’t think a little disagreement is a big deal or that either of us should step on eggshells to avoid it ever happening again.

 

[nickys]

But there’s a real point here wrt DVC becoming less and less of a “good deal”. And many consumers are incredibly ignorant in the timeshare space — it’s just true. Not all, obviously, but many.

I still don’t get this “less of a good deal” It should never be any kind of investment decision. This is a timeshare, the Disney way. Which means there is a resale market. Whether or not you make money by reselling depends on how much direct price rises since you buy.

We bought nearly 10years ago, direct. It was only ever sold to us as “pre-paying for Disney vacations”. The guide even told us everything else was icing on the cake.

But I do realise that many people do buy thinking they can make a profit when they sell. More fool them.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

You have to defend the shield...you end up in “my lot” if you change your mind.

I was once the biggest promoter of both DVC and the whole WDW complex

Hopefully I get back to that stance someday...it isn’t looking good though.

Gotta tell you — in my old age (!!), I care less and less about people not being happy about a legit, well-reasoned opinion I may hold. Getting older is freeing! LOL!

Wrt DVC, I kinda’ WANTED to be able to get there on DRR... I actually like the design and location (THOUGH I HATE THAT IT IS NOT WALKABLE TO A PARK). But alas, I like math and logic too much, and I couldn’t get mine to work out with our particulars. Oh, well...

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well I did, she thought I did so mistakenly.

Thing is though, I agree everyone can disagree about things. But calling people stupid for disagreeing makes no sense to me.

Stupid is a little harsh...but it’s in the ballpark. I have grown tired of the “lack of insight” displayed by WDW consumers on pretty much every front...because it drags everyone’s experience down with it. DVC has gone that way too. It’s probably just me.

My two things are:

1. “Responsible consumerism”. I beg...it doesn’t happen.
2. trust the shovels. As evidenced by that work being done on the Brazil pavilion...won’t be long till I’m buying Marty those caipirinhas now

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

I still don’t get this “less of a good deal” It should never be any kind of investment decision. This is a timeshare, the Disney way. Which means there is a resale market. Whether or not you make money by reselling depends on how much direct price rises since you buy.

We bought nearly 10years ago, direct. It was only ever sold to us as “pre-paying for Disney vacations”. The guide even told us everything else was icing on the cake.

But I do realise that many people do buy thinking they can make a profit when they sell. More fool them.

“I still don’t get this “less of a good deal””: MATH

I never said INVESTMENT. I said good financial deal. There’s a difference. I assume ZERO salvage value for DVC — so not an investment in the true sense.

It’s a break-even time question. That time is lengthening with DVC over time. Ie less of a good financial deal. That’s all.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Gotta tell you — in my old age (!!), I care less and less about people not being happy about a legit, well-reasoned opinion I may hold. Getting older is freeing! LOL!

Wrt DVC, I kinda’ WANTED to be able to get there on DRR... I actually like the design and location (THOUGH I HATE THAT IT IS NOT WALKABLE TO A PARK). But alas, I like math and logic too much, and I couldn’t get mine to work out with our particulars. Oh, well...

My young apprentice...

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

ok, ok. lol I feel like the kid that just knock down the stacked can display at the supermarket and caused an chain reaction.

thanks for the clarification @MickeyMinnieMom , the first post sounded so harsh. . Your original post said "how many of them can do a cost analysis"? now I'm not in the timeshare business so I definitely believe you have seen some eye raising situations. but I do hate this "holier than thou" attitude that I find persuasive here. I always want to know how you guys know so much about other peoples financial situation. How you know folks are going into debt? or whether or not they can afford up charges?

Anyway I assure you my friends DO know how to do a cost/break even analysis and my late husband and I were able to wrap our little brains around it. lol

Either way I've got no horse in this race, I'm more the C'est la vie type gal. Your money, your choice.

Sounds like you might be taking this personally. It isn’t personal in any way.

Most people do not conduct a meaningful break even analysis. Whether they know how to and don’t, or don’t know how to. Most take the salesperson’s word for it. Truly.

I claimed no knowledge of other people’s financial situation. I keep referring to not being able to make the math work WITH MY PARTICULARS — everyone obviously has particulars as well so I can’t say what kind of a deal it is for everyone.

I can say the break even time is getting longer and longer, all assumptions held constant.

My point is that most don’t even conduct the analysis. If your friends do, they’re further ahead than most, and excellent for them!

 

[eliza61nyc]

All good.

Back to the regular schedule program. Riveria resort, Yay or nay.

I'm a pay where you want to stay gal so since I have no desire to ever stay here, not even thinking about adding on.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

This resort looks lovely, but by my break-even analysis using our vacationing particulars, there's no way to justify this purchase. The only way I can get to a break-even is assuming the same rate of increase in dues (actually 5.5%/yr since we've owned), as in rack rates (actually 3.6%/yr since we've owned DVC) -- and even there I arrive at 40yrs.

Wondering where you get the extremely low 3.6% increase in rack rates? Some have gone up 10% in one year.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

“I still don’t get this “less of a good deal””: MATH

I never said INVESTMENT. I said good financial deal. There’s a difference. I assume ZERO salvage value for DVC — so not an investment in the true sense.

It’s a break-end time question. That time is lengthening with DVC over time. Ie less of a good financial deal. That’s all.

I never get this either. The argument for new DVC sales is always based on the assumption that today’s price is correct...so it works backwards from there.

So if it was $50 in 1999....and $80 in 2003...and $100 in 2007 and $120 in 2011 and $150 in 2013 and $180 in 2018....all that makes sense.

Unless you compare it to the relative rise in room rates - not even taking into account what a room is actually booked for...

That’s where DVC analysis fails for me...rack rates are somewhere in the 200% increase over that range (there are exceptions)...while DVC is 400%.

A $300 base room at the grand Floridian in 1999 isn’t $1200 now.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Wondering where you get the extremely low 3.6% increase in rack rates? Some have gone up 10% in one year.

Some have gone way up - like the moderates...but many of the deluxe rates have had a far more modest increase. Because they can’t sell it.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Wondering where you get the extremely low 3.6% increase in rack rates? Some have gone up 10% in one year.

I used the closest comparable for my situation: average annual rate of increase in the rack rates for BLT 2BR MK view 2013-2019 -- which is what I would book if not using my BLT DVC points there. I spot checked some other room categories and and it was in the same territory.

This is only 6 years, but it's better than using one year, absent authoritative info about future expected rate increases. These are all estimates -- there's no "right" figure to use -- I just try to get as close to our situation and get at least a few years' data.

Maybe better would be looking at a longer period across multiple resorts in the 2BR category, etc. -- not sure where I'd get all that data anyway, though. There's only so much time I think it makes sense to chase the perfect assumption here. The issue is less this particular % than it is the differential between rack increase and DVC dues increase. Over the comparable period, our DVC fees/due for BLT went up an average of 5.5% per year... that is... not great for this analysis.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

I used the closest comparable for my situation: average annual rate of increase in the rack rates for BLT 2BR MK view 2013-2019 -- which is what I would book if not using my BLT DVC points there. I spot checked some other room categories and and it was in the same territory.

This is only 6 years, but it's better than using one year, absent authoritative info about future expected rate increases. These are all estimates -- there's no "right" figure to use -- I just try to get as close to our situation and get at least a few years' data.

Over the comparable period, our DVC fees/due for BLT went up an average of 5.5% per year... that is... not great for this analysis.

But where did you get the historical information from? I can find no reliable source anywhere for resort pricing information.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

But where did you get the historical information from? I can find no reliable source anywhere for resort pricing information.

I conducted a break-even analysis when we purchased BLT in 2013 -- I took note of the rack rates then. So I had my baseline.

I'm not trying to convince you or anyone else on this, btw. Just sharing what I found for our situation.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

I conducted a break-even analysis when we purchased BLT in 2013 -- I took note of the rack rates then. So I had my baseline.

I'm not trying to convince you or anyone else on this, btw. Just sharing what I found for our situation.

Oh, you don't have to convince us. We've been owners for well over a decade, and broke even many years ago.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Oh, you don't have to convince us. We've been owners for well over a decade, and broke even many years ago.

Cool. Same on SSR and BLT. But it would take me a lot longer on DRR -- that's my main point.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

Cool. Same. But it would take me a lot longer on DRR -- that's my main point.

Very true, and not a resort we will be buying into. But we'll certainly stay there at some point.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Very true, and not a resort we will be buying into. But we'll certainly stay there at some point.

Same. I'd try for it at 7mos... when I can hardly EVER get BWV or BCV...