News Disney plans to accelerate Parks investment to $60 billion over 10 years

[ToTBellHop]

That's really weird but it might not be unexpected. Universal's hours might be dictated by the average ticket prices. If the park is full of discounted admissions (APs), they are going to be less inclined to spend on longer park operating hours because it has no actual impact on revenue.

Universal is going to be under a lot of pressure to start extracting more revenue from their property with the third park. It's going to be hard to do if Universal's primary draw is being the cheaper alternative.

It’s the weekend before Mardi Gras. It’ll be packed. Next weekend, ticket prices and hotel rates are sky high for Presidents Weekend yet they cut hours and then cut them some more. They will struggle to compete if this nonsense continues. Do they want to stay the “discount WDW with expensive, crappy food” forever? I think $10 for 3 bites of chicken for Mardi Gras answers the question for now.

Improve how you operate your existing property before expanding.

 

[flynnibus]

Uni doesn't pitch itself as a 'cheaper alternative' - in fact they pivoted to stop shadowing Disney's price increases to LEADING the price increases and being willing to cross the psychological barrier about being a higher ticket price than Disney. All of this was in the past building on their HP success... before they even unleash EU.

UNI has been spending the last decade building out their property to be a longer stay destination... including building the infrastructure to capture those hotel nights too.

The die was cast years ago - UNI was no longer going to just be happy with leftovers or niches... they were aiming to be THE reason for a trip and to get the bulk of your time and money. Sure they know people will still goto Disney... but if they flip people form spending 5 days at Disney and 1 at UNI... to spending 5 days at UNI and 2 at Disney.. They win. They don't need to push Disney to zero... and they probably don't want it either. Having Disney as a draw helps UNI draw people to the area... what they want is for your build your vacation around UNI first.

Even halving nights stayed at Disney would be a critical blow to Disney.

I expect the next war will be over hotels and transportation offers. Getting people to book at your property.. while tickets remain more full price at UNI. I bet Disney leans into discounting tickets beyond 5 days again to try to choke down the interest in spending days at UNI.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

After the new wears off, I think EU will steal more attendance from US than Disney.

 

[John park hopper]

I think a lot of Disney guests of the past are thinking it’ll be time to try Uni. Go to all 3 parks and maybe even the water park or heck visit sea world for a day (everything non Disney to see if it’s better).

While Disney booking trends are down, Uni booking trends are up. (from past history)

Count us as a WDW (many times) past guest going to U

 

[flynnibus]

After the new wears off, I think EU will steal more attendance from US than Disney.

And eventually UNI will have to invest in studios to keep its relevancy... just like Disney has to do with all it's parks.

They can manage how much cannibalization there is with their ticketing strategies... but this risk is just something they plan for with their product model and where they chose to put attractions.

UNI didn't build EU to replace or let studios die... it just now has three draws it must manage to keep all relevant and interesting enough.

 

[Jrb1979]

After the new wears off, I think EU will steal more attendance from US than Disney.

@Casper Gutman this response is why I don't think they should go directly after the Disney crowd. Time and time again it's shown no matter the investment Disney fans will try a couple of times but never fully switch.

 

[ToTBellHop]

@Casper Gutman this response is why I don't think they should go directly after the Disney crowd. Time and time again it's shown no matter the investment Disney fans will try a couple of times but never fully switch.

Every time they just about turn a Disney fan into a Uni fan, it’s time to try out Fast and Furious. Then the Magic is gone. Back to the safety of Space Ranger Spin.

 

[Lilofan]

And eventually UNI will have to invest in studios to keep its relevancy... just like Disney has to do with all it's parks.

They can manage how much cannibalization there is with their ticketing strategies... but this risk is just something they plan for with their product model and where they chose to put attractions.

UNI didn't build EU to replace or let studios die... it just now has three draws it must manage to keep all relevant and interesting enough.

With UNI keeping on investing just keeps adding to the current debt of Comcast - $100 Billion. If Disney was in debt for that , Iger would be out the door but not with Brian Roberts . A number of folks don't even have a clue who Roberts is.

 

[Disney Analyst]

After the new wears off, I think EU will steal more attendance from US than Disney.

I still think EU maybe gives Uni an extra day from people who would be going to Disney regardless, but it’s also possible it cannibalizes their studio park, which is frankly not seeming so hot right now.

The question is, are people adding an extra day to do EU, or removing USO from the rotation, removing AK?

 

[flynnibus]

With UNI keeping on investing just keeps adding to the current debt of Comcast - $100 Billion. If Disney was in debt for that , Iger would be out the door but not with Brian Roberts . A number of folks don't even have a clue who Roberts is.

Yes... UNI will now stop spending period because of you deep thoughts... thx for sharing.

 

[BrianLo]

For sure,...Magic Kingdom and Epic Universe will compete for #1 and #2 in 2025. The remaining parks all bump down a notch with Islands of Adventure and Universal Studios benefiting from Epic's coattails.

To provide some historical insight, this is incredibly implausible. This is not a poo poo on Epic post, it looks great. It will drive major attendance to Universal.

Granted we only have one past Universal data point, but new gates always lead to lowered attendance for at least several years across the other gates in the portfolio. Universal Orlando Resorts total guest count will increase, but there will be moderate attendance declines at IOA and USF in compensation. Epic likely will be the third place attendance driver. It will take 5-10 years for IOA and USF attendance to fully recover (thereby the total resort will move towards a 50% attendance bump in totality in 5-10 years), but maybe only a 25% attendance bump upon opening of Epic.

The biggest comparator I think people would find acceptable is Disney Sea. You can see the clear resort wide bump in attendance, but it wasn’t really until 2013 that Tokyo Disneyland attendance fully reached its former peak.

This is a good thing by the way and the barometer of success for Epic. If Epic has MK adjacent levels of attendance the place is going to be an absolute nightmare. It isn’t remotely built for that. It’s built to handle 7-9 million initially.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

This is a good thing by the way and the barometer of success for Epic. If Epic has MK adjacent levels of attendance the place is going to be an absolute nightmare. It isn’t remotely built for that. It’s built to handle 7-9 million initially.

I believe that MK was only built to handle about 10 million per year, and gets almost double that without any appreciable size added. And people wonder why it's crowded.

 

[Lilofan]

Yes... UNI will now stop spending period because of you deep thoughts... thx for sharing.

Weird reply , not surprising.

 

[LSLS]

With UNI keeping on investing just keeps adding to the current debt of Comcast - $100 Billion. If Disney was in debt for that , Iger would be out the door but not with Brian Roberts . A number of folks don't even have a clue who Roberts is.

Look, I'm no economics expert, but just a quick google search would tell you if that is a problem at all, and show you if it's even worse than Disney.

 

[Lilofan]

Look, I'm no economics expert, but just a quick google search would tell you if that is a problem at all, and show you if it's even worse than Disney.

So $100 billion in debt is no problem?

 

[JD80]

Debt vs market cap is one way to look at it. Disney market cap is like 200B and Comcast is like 170B

 

[Cliff]

I believe that MK was only built to handle about 10 million per year, and gets almost double that without any appreciable size added. And people wonder why it's crowded.

I'd guess that if Disney has a dollar to spend on new attractions at WDW, 80 cents of that needs to go to Animal Kingdom and Studios. Magic Kingdom is not "hurting" and it will likely hold fairly strong in the next 5 years....even with nothing "new" or interesting to see there. MK has an iconic castle to take pictures in front of. For a big chunk of fans,..that's all they need. Epcot has festivals to lift it up but I'd think the other two parks need the most help.

Yeah...what Disney parks will Epic Universe "steal" the most guests away from?

 

[LSLS]

So $100 billion in debt is no problem?

Correct.

 

[BrianLo]

So $100 billion in debt is no problem?

Comcast has sufficient free cash flow to balance out their higher debt levels than Disney. Neither company is in trouble.

Epic’s conclusion will be a significant drop in Cap Ex, albeit to be fair, that seems like it will shift towards the UK project.

 

[Disney Analyst]

To provide some historical insight, this is incredibly implausible. This is not a poo poo on Epic post, it looks great. It will drive major attendance to Universal.

Granted we only have one past Universal data point, but new gates always lead to lowered attendance for at least several years across the other gates in the portfolio. Universal Orlando Resorts total guest count will increase, but there will be moderate attendance declines at IOA and USF in compensation. Epic likely will be the third place attendance driver. It will take 5-10 years for IOA and USF attendance to fully recover (thereby the total resort will move towards a 50% attendance bump in totality in 5-10 years), but maybe only a 25% attendance bump upon opening of Epic.

The biggest comparator I think people would find acceptable is Disney Sea. You can see the clear resort wide bump in attendance, but it wasn’t really until 2013 that Tokyo Disneyland attendance fully reached its former peak.

View attachment 767579

This is a good thing by the way and the barometer of success for Epic. If Epic has MK adjacent levels of attendance the place is going to be an absolute nightmare. It isn’t remotely built for that. It’s built to handle 7-9 million initially.

I am also very curious how EU will be perceived in peak guest periods, aka Summer. Summer in Florida is wet, and stormy. Right now when outdoor conditions deteriorate, EU will become just like IOA, with only 4 rides able to remain open.

4.

I love IOA, but it was horrible in the summers of 2013 and 2014 when I had my AP, and the park would basically shut down due to rain and or lightning.