DisneyFan32
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- Yes
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News Disney mask policy at Walt Disney World theme parks
- Thread starter wdwmagic
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danlb_2000
Premium Member
I don't know Eric Topol, but the graphs he posted are accurate, UK and Europe are seeing an increase in cases, and the US pretty reliably follows the pattern of the UK, just delayed a few weeks.
Tom P.
Well-Known Member
Hinting at what? Gottlieb agrees that we are likely to see a small spike in cases due to the BA.2 variant, the dropping of mitigation measures, etc. I think we all knew that and should have expected it. But he also clearly says that he doesn't think will be the start of a new surge and that the downward decline should resume into Summer.
I'm not suggesting that the graph itself is falsified or anything like that. Merely that he takes selective data points and uses them justify the worst possible conclusion in order to continue his fearmongering. Look, Covid is likely to spike again. We may be just weeks behind the UK on that point. But so far, the UK's spike is minor. And we knew that future spikes were to be expected. But that doesn't mean we're getting ready to start another wave or that we need to panic. There's no evidence yet to suggest that anything seriously bad is getting ready to happen. And lots of reasons to think it's not. As Gottlieb says, we're likely to see just a small spike and then a continuing decline.
DisneyFan32
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- Yes
Let's see how new surge causes this fall and winter by end of the year if new variant is getting worse than Delta and Omicron. We're screwed for this fall/winter.
Tom P.
Well-Known Member
No, we're not.
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
Stop following him! Seriously!
No we have not with omicron at all really
Zummi Gummi
Pioneering the Universe Within!
Some of y’all need Xanax or something.
Disney4Lyfe
Well-Known Member
IFR is at or below flu levels thanks to Omicron. The only way masks come back is if we reach a new level of insane irrationality. Like arrows on grocery store floors levels.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
Basically, the thought is that we are now entering an endemic phase where we can expect spread to wax and wane like other respiratory illnesses. That does not mean the sky will fall but we should certainly anticipate that, at some point in the next 6 months, we will be asked to get another Covid shot.
Other than that, no one really knows what will happen. Basic math modeling would suggest our high rate of spread from omicron (CDC estimates 45% of Americans got omicron) along with pretty strong protection it generates against stealth omicron (especially severe outcomes) should prevent any immediate, significant peak here. But, covid has shown it doesn’t really care about our math or models. We should certainly expect some sort of bump and waste water Covid levels are already increasing in 1/3 of sites in America.
So we wait. A vaccine toward September is probably going to be necessary to top off immunity.
I do worry about China. They did not get enough uptake of strong vaccines there and their zero-tolerance policy has left almost no naturally-acquired immunity. Conditions are perfect for omicron or its subvariant to spread at incredibly high levels there. And that can create variants.
It has become increasingly clear that most of us will get Covid but vaccination can prevent severe outcomes. A nation trying to completely block spread is an exercise in futility.
Anyone care to explain this to China? Perhaps Bob Chapek can do the explaining as he certainly is worried due to his predecessors building so much in Asia.
As for masking, given the math mentioned above, I don’t personally expect masking to be required until fall, and even that is questionable. Just my opinion though. It seems most nations are moving on to the “living with Covid” phase where vaccination and treatments will be the emphasis while testing and masking drop off. Simply put, more and more countries find the economic and social impacts to be unacceptable when we have effective vaccines and treatments. We see this in Europe. Cases are rising while restrictions continue to be removed.
The only thing I see reversing that is some sort of crazy variant. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen. But stealth omicron isn’t a crazy variant.
Other than that, no one really knows what will happen. Basic math modeling would suggest our high rate of spread from omicron (CDC estimates 45% of Americans got omicron) along with pretty strong protection it generates against stealth omicron (especially severe outcomes) should prevent any immediate, significant peak here. But, covid has shown it doesn’t really care about our math or models. We should certainly expect some sort of bump and waste water Covid levels are already increasing in 1/3 of sites in America.
So we wait. A vaccine toward September is probably going to be necessary to top off immunity.
I do worry about China. They did not get enough uptake of strong vaccines there and their zero-tolerance policy has left almost no naturally-acquired immunity. Conditions are perfect for omicron or its subvariant to spread at incredibly high levels there. And that can create variants.
It has become increasingly clear that most of us will get Covid but vaccination can prevent severe outcomes. A nation trying to completely block spread is an exercise in futility.
Anyone care to explain this to China? Perhaps Bob Chapek can do the explaining as he certainly is worried due to his predecessors building so much in Asia.
As for masking, given the math mentioned above, I don’t personally expect masking to be required until fall, and even that is questionable. Just my opinion though. It seems most nations are moving on to the “living with Covid” phase where vaccination and treatments will be the emphasis while testing and masking drop off. Simply put, more and more countries find the economic and social impacts to be unacceptable when we have effective vaccines and treatments. We see this in Europe. Cases are rising while restrictions continue to be removed.
The only thing I see reversing that is some sort of crazy variant. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen. But stealth omicron isn’t a crazy variant.
DisneyFan32
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- Yes
I'm scared of this new variants, I won't wear mask forever.....
Disney4Lyfe
Well-Known Member
Booster uptake is 44.2% of vaccinated people. So, don't really expect that number to improve for a 4th dose.
danlb_2000
Premium Member
That's down around flu vaccination rates, which is probably where the uptake of boosters will remain.
danlb_2000
Premium Member
Not sure what you mean by that, US omicron spike was about two weeks after the UK's
danlb_2000
Premium Member
There is no way you can make a statement like that with any confidence.
Disney4Lyfe
Well-Known Member
44% of vaccinated people though. So in reality it's even lower then that. Below flu shot levels. Anyways, the point is, I wouldn't be expecting it to provide any population level effects.
The Omicron spike looks like it took off the same for the UK and the US.....good catch.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
It still mitigates because immunity wanes over time. Giving that 44% stronger immunity leading into any potential surge does relieve strain on healthcare.
I agree with you that I shake my head a bit when I read “we really need to vaccinate more people.” We do, but it’s not gonna happen.
All of that is why I’m skeptical of mask mandates returning. We are reaching the point where the situation is the situation and people aren’t going to change. So, we just have to live with it.
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