ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
It's really quite sad. I almost bought into it when my oldest was a toddler.
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News Disney mask policy at Walt Disney World theme parks
- Thread starter wdwmagic
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G00fyDad
Well-Known Member
Again, a misunderstanding. Not because of a single infection but a whole lot more. People are reading too much into things.
danv3
Well-Known Member
Positivity is a fairly meaningless metric when the number of tests keeps decreasing. You'd really expect positivity to be increasing as more and more the people getting tested are those who are symptomatic or have a known exposure.
I don't understand what you are saying - how can it be meaningless? And if less people are being tested, couldn't it possibly mean that less people actually need to be tested at this point? That's what should be happening now.
Even if a smaller amount of people are being tested - if there is still a significant amount positive, the positivity rate will reflect that. And vice-versa.
This.
As time goes on and places open up, Covid cases will likely rise. By then the amount of cases will become less important and the hospitalisation number will be the one to watch.
If vaccinations are working as they should, I don't think it's a guarantee anymore that cases will rise.
Oh gosh, I thought I was posting on the Covid thread! Sorry all!
danv3
Well-Known Member
There were times last year when anyone and their brother were getting tested, often for essentially no reason. Tons of unnecessary (or at best overly cautious) tests of people who were never going to be positive.
Now, fewer people get tested--mainly people with symptoms and those with known close contacts to COVID cases. Given the smaller body of people being tested and the reason they're being tested, we should expect a higher proportion to test positive.
So last year's 5,000 cases out of 100,000 tests is hard to compare to today's 700 cases out of 10,000 tests.
Ah, I see what you mean. Thanks for explaining.
orky8
Well-Known Member
I think you have it backwards. The more people getting tested, I would think positivity would drop, and the numbers seems to play this out (again, look at LA County as a random example). Early on positivity was through the roof because only those at the hospital and clearly sick got tested. If you positivity to drop, tell everyone they need to get tested daily. In any event, it is a metric used to demonstrate community spread and accepted as meaningful by virologists, of which I'm not one, so what do I know.
Probably not that interesting but maybe someone will find it so...
Florida up to 34.9% full vaccinated for those 18+ (would be approx. 34.2% for those 16+). That's 0.5% up from yesterday - which has been very close to the national average (Florida has been typically behind the national average). On that pace, it would be another 30-32 days before it reaches Orange Counties removal of facial coverings outdoors mandate (note - I assume Orange county will use their county numbers, while I was using statewide Florida numbers, so there could be a difference there. It was just meant to be for something to look at) One can also assume that the pace will slow down as the percentages go up (it will be a lot harder to go from 65% to 70% then it was to go from 5% to 10%).
Florida up to 34.9% full vaccinated for those 18+ (would be approx. 34.2% for those 16+). That's 0.5% up from yesterday - which has been very close to the national average (Florida has been typically behind the national average). On that pace, it would be another 30-32 days before it reaches Orange Counties removal of facial coverings outdoors mandate (note - I assume Orange county will use their county numbers, while I was using statewide Florida numbers, so there could be a difference there. It was just meant to be for something to look at) One can also assume that the pace will slow down as the percentages go up (it will be a lot harder to go from 65% to 70% then it was to go from 5% to 10%).
mickeymiss
Well-Known Member
I'm in between. I think a lot of things were closed for no reason for too long but I also think masks really are a fair compromise to allow a transition back to normal. I have come to feel safer because of them and I don't want them ripped away before we've approached a major decline in cases. It took me a long time to accept masks because I have anxiety and thought masks would normalize extreme fear. I also want to protect my son until he can be vaccinated. I have a Disney trip in three weeks that we planned *because* we wanted the precautions in place. It's hard because I really didn't expect covid restrictions to go on for this long but they did. Our response to the vaccine can't just be back to normal immediately because many states are still not seeing a decline. I'd like to think an international theme park would be more cautious because people from all over the country (and world during normal times) visit. I generally agree with those who say freedoms can't just be taken away from everyone which is why masks are the compromise as long as they don't keep you from what you want to do.
Probably unpopular opinion but I've always been a middle ground person.
Probably unpopular opinion but I've always been a middle ground person.
There is a lot of variables, and you both are correct. But eventually one would expect the positivity rate to go up as there is less cases.
As an example, generally the positivity rate for the Flu (in a normal year) is higher than what it is (in most areas) for Covid right now. As a quick reference, a week in January of 2019 had a positivity rate for the flu of 23%, and by September of 2019 is was down to 13%. (note - I am sure you can find many other "numbers" out there, but generally this is what you will see). Eventually this is where Covid should head as well, a larger percentage of people who get tested for it will be positive then you see right now.
Are we there yet, well that is up for debate certainly. But it is something we will definitely see.
Also, from a accuracy point of view, when you get less data (less tests) it is a lot less accurate to make any conclusions from it. An anomaly has a far greater effect on a small "sample size". For instance, when there was 100,000 test a day, a family of 10 that all get tested positive has a smaller effect then when there is only 100 test in a day and a family of 10 all get test positive. It works the other way too. If a large business opens up and requires all of their employees to be tested before they can return to work, we likely would see a drop in the positivity rate. Reason - we will have a large number of people who are getting tested that have no symptoms and likely no real reason to believe they have covid. It will skew the numbers. This all happens a great deal more as the number of tests decrease. So this indicator will become less useful.
yep thats how it works
more tests during seasons of high sickness (summer for the sun belt, fall for the midwest)
fewer tests during low periods of sickness
mickeymiss
Well-Known Member
Sorry if this has been discussed but do you think Disney will change 6 feet markers after the Orange county mayor released that new guidance? I can imagine that being a pain in the butt to move all of those.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
I thought the Orange County metrics were tied to percentage receiving the first dose?
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
They will change to 3 feet before they remove a mask mandate. It is vital that they get more people into indoor queues and more people on rides.
Also, if an outdoor mask mandate ends, they already have a CM at the start of every queue to insist masks go on. I’d be pleased as punch to be able to walk around World Showcase enjoying a gelato with my mask off. No issue putting it on as I join the Frozen queue.
mickeymiss
Well-Known Member
I thought it said the 3 feet guidance change was effective immediately. I could be mistaken.
Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
Effective Immediately, the guidance has changed from 6 to 3 feet.
Couldn't they just add more markers in between the old ones instead of moving all of them?
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