I wouldn't exactly call the increase the UK has had a "spike."
Everything is relative. Yes, definitely a spike:
7-day rolling average was 2200 as of May 15th, in just 3 weeks, the 7-day rolling average is now 4785. (My 50% spike estimate was based on old data... the spike has gotten much worse over the last few days).
So in just a little over 3 weeks, at 117% spike.
Yes, a 117% increase is definitely a spike. And it's still rising. (So 117% is the minimum size of the spike, but may get much larger).
In just the last week:
May 31st, rolling average: 3346 cases. June 6, rolling average: 4785. So a 43% increase in just the last week!
And the current UK spike still hasn't peaked.
In context, yesterday, the UK reported 5341 new cases... They have been over 5,000 per day, for the last several days. (Equivalent of about 20,000 in the US)... Up until this last week, they didn't have a day with over 5,000 cases since mid-late March.
So the resurgence has pushed them back to where they were in March.
If the US were to have a similar resurgence -- we were at 55,000-60,000 cases per day in mid to late March.
Israel is looking like our best case scenario. While the UK is looking like a warning light, that our current level of vaccination doesn't necessarily fully put us out of the woods.