Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DKampy]

Not necessarily, re-releases and theater count bumps can and do happen around Oscar time for nominees and winners.

Also as has been discussed here before the post-Oscar bump is a bit overblown, it doesn't add all that much to the box office in a majority of cases. But maybe Wicked will buck that trend and have a resurgence post-Oscars, you never know.

Perhaps it is more of an awards season bump…. As I don’t think a film like Poor Things would of grossed nearly as much without all the award nominations it received through the season… or the year of Everything, Everywhere All at Once… the film was rereleased in theaters and the 5.00 rental was raised to 20.00… it added to it’s gross because of it

I do agree that Wicked probably would not benefit as much as those…,as the crowds did come out for it…. I still think it was a mistake to release it this early…it probably would have made that anyway as well as add to it’s theatrical gross…. It was having better holds than Moana…. It was not a coincidence the opposite happen last week

I also understand studios are now using theatrical as an advertisement for their streaming services… the data shows movies do better on the various services if they go to theaters first…. But they will still have that ability later on

 

[Disney Irish]

Perhaps it is more of an awards season bump…. As I don’t think a film like Poor Things would of grossed nearly as much without all the award nominations it received through the season… or the year of Everything, Everywhere All at Once… the film was rereleased in theaters and the 5.00 rental was raised to 20.00… it added to it’s gross because of it

I do agree that Wicked probably would not benefit as much as those…,as the crowds did come out for it…. I still think it was a mistake to release it this early…it probably would have made that anyway as well as add to it’s theatrical gross…. It was having better holds than Moana…. It was not a coincidence the opposite happen last week

I also understand studios are now using theatrical as an advertisement for their streaming services… the data shows movies do better on the various services if they go to theaters first…. But they will still have that ability later on

I think it’s a complex thing especially now with streaming as you mentioned. Uni has been pretty aggressive post-pandemic with how fast they put something on digital, so it’s fairly normal. Wicked is already starting to get sub-$1m days so I think they are aware that theatrical has diminishing returns now at this point for Wicked. Which is probably why they ended up moving it to digital this quickly. Maybe they also don’t feel their chances are that good with the Oscars and other award shows outside of the craft awards, dunno. I’m actually surprised though that it’s still in over 2900 theaters. We’ve seen the theater count drop pretty significantly after a digital release in most cases, so guess this is one of those exceptions.

 

[brideck]

I think it’s a complex thing especially now with streaming as you mentioned. Uni has been pretty aggressive post-pandemic with how fast they put something on digital, so it’s fairly normal. Wicked is already starting to get sub-$1m days so I think they are aware that theatrical has diminishing returns now at this point for Wicked. Which is probably why they ended up moving it to digital this quickly. Maybe they also don’t feel their chances are that good with the Oscars and other award shows outside of the craft awards, dunno. I’m actually surprised though that it’s still in over 2900 theaters. We’ve seen the theater count drop pretty significantly after a digital release in most cases, so guess this is one of those exceptions.

When I think of recent awards bumps versus not, I think of last year with Poor Things against something like The Iron Claw. The latter was yanked from theaters to make room for other awards stuff even though it was still fairly popular at the time. It easily made $10m-$20m less than it would have in theaters due to lack of nominations.

Wicked still has a solid theater count, but is in less than 1/3 of the screens in those theaters compared to its release (as is Sonic). Mufasa is the only movie still hanging on to more than a "normal" wide release around me.

 

[Disney Irish]

When I think of recent awards bumps versus not, I think of last year with Poor Things against something like The Iron Claw. The latter was yanked from theaters to make room for other awards stuff even though it was still fairly popular at the time. It easily made $10m-$20m less than it would have in theaters due to lack of nominations.

Wicked still has a solid theater count, but is in less than 1/3 of the screens in those theaters compared to its release (as is Sonic). Mufasa is the only movie still hanging on to more than a "normal" wide release around me.

I think it comes down to the individual film. Some less well known ones might get more of a bump than say something that was already killing it at the box office as award followers go see the ones they missed. So something like Wicked is less likely to get a bump compared to The Brutalist which is on the top of most Best Picture lists. In fact, and not to upset any Ozians (what Wicked fans are called for those that don't know, I had to look it up too) but Wicked isn't even predicted to win many of the big awards, most think it'll win primarily craft and critics awards only. So I don't think the bump is going to be there anyways for Wicked, which also could have factored into Uni's decision to push it to digital already.

 

[Miss Rori]

I’m actually surprised though that it’s still in over 2900 theaters. We’ve seen the theater count drop pretty significantly after a digital release in most cases, so guess this is one of those exceptions.

It's not really surprising for me, given that all the early December wide releases went belly-up instantly, a lot of the awards-bait titles are getting one screen at the most (especially outside big cities), and there's next to nothing opening wide this month. Moana 2 is still hanging about, why not Wicked?

 

[BrianLo]

Wicked definitely yielded money by releasing digitally early. The question is how much. Releasing the PVOD amounts is a defensive maneuver, because I think they know they kind of screwed up

They probably also didn’t expect it to do that well domestically or hold on that long when they made that roadmap.

 

[Disney Irish]

It's not really surprising for me, given that all the early December wide releases went belly-up instantly, a lot of the awards-bait titles are getting one screen at the most (especially outside big cities), and there's next to nothing opening wide this month. Moana 2 is still hanging about, why not Wicked?

Diminishing returns, it’s starting to get sub-$1M days. That is on average the point when movies drastically lose theaters. I think the only thing keeping it in that many theaters is there is no major release happening for January.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Wicked definitely yielded money by releasing digitally early. The question is how much. Releasing the PVOD amounts is a defensive maneuver, because I think they know they kind of screwed up

They probably also didn’t expect it to do that well domestically or hold on that long when they made that roadmap.

Universal has been the most aggressive when it comes to releasing their movies to PVOD within 45 days of release.

I don't why they didn't just wait another week until after the holidays were over.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Moana 2 is now up to $989 million worldwide, will hit $1 billion this week

Wicked up to $697 million.

Mufasa is at about $540 million.

Nosferatu has reached $135 million against a $50 million budget, which is impressive considering the number of people concerned about it recouping that cost before Xmas.

 

[BrianLo]

Moana 2 is now up to $989 million worldwide, will hit $1 billion this week

Wicked up to $697 million.

Mufasa is at about $540 million.

Nosferatu has reached $135 million against a $50 million budget, which is impressive considering the number of people concerned about it recouping that cost before Xmas.

I think there’s an over eagerness to declare films finished/flat prematurely on this subthread. But the same legs that apply to opening weekend multipliers are relevant to the tail. And a pretty standard multiple is at least 3X.

So if Moana added 30 million this week, it’s still probably destined for another 60. Mufasa did 60 and is still going to add another 120-150. Etc. this part is boring perhaps, but can meaningfully impact the final endpoint. Especially in January where we have another US holiday and not exactly a ton of releases that steal screens.

 

[Serpico Jones]

The budgets for these big tent pole movies are going to have to come down considerably.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Universal has been the most aggressive when it comes to releasing their movies to PVOD within 45 days of release.

It may be that their "take" of the theatrical BO lessens as time moves on, and they'd rather get full price on DVD and VOD views compared to only 30-40% of BO.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

The budgets for these big tent pole movies are going to have to come down considerably.

NO.

 

[Disney Irish]

The budgets for these big tent pole movies are going to have to come down considerably.

This has been discussed many times over in these threads, and while I agree and some of that seems to be happening overall, the end result is that by and large with Disney movies as long as they are good the budget can be as much as they want and they still seem to make bank. But yes they should come down by 15-20% in my opinion, and that would make even the most modest box office returns seem brighter.

 

[Ghost93]

Wicked definitely yielded money by releasing digitally early. The question is how much. Releasing the PVOD amounts is a defensive maneuver, because I think they know they kind of screwed up

They probably also didn’t expect it to do that well domestically or hold on that long when they made that roadmap.

I think what hurt Wicked with PVOD is that the movie had way more repeat viewership than the average movie. Part of the reasons it had legs was because the fans kept rewatching it in theaters again and again.

I think it was stupid to put it on PVOD so early, because the fans and general audiences would have still bought the movie if it came out a few weeks later.

 

[Fox&Hound]

I am kinda sad to see Moana 2 do so insanely well. Because I hate to say it but the movie was just not good. At all. And I am afraid Disney will learn all the wrong lessons from it.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Perhaps it is more of an awards season bump…. As I don’t think a film like Poor Things would of grossed nearly as much without all the award nominations it received through the season… or the year of Everything, Everywhere All at Once… the film was rereleased in theaters and the 5.00 rental was raised to 20.00… it added to it’s gross because of it

I do agree that Wicked probably would not benefit as much as those…,as the crowds did come out for it…. I still think it was a mistake to release it this early…it probably would have made that anyway as well as add to it’s theatrical gross…. It was having better holds than Moana…. It was not a coincidence the opposite happen last week

I also understand studios are now using theatrical as an advertisement for their streaming services… the data shows movies do better on the various services if they go to theaters first…. But they will still have that ability later on

Wicked definitely yielded money by releasing digitally early. The question is how much. Releasing the PVOD amounts is a defensive maneuver, because I think they know they kind of screwed up

They probably also didn’t expect it to do that well domestically or hold on that long when they made that roadmap.

I think what hurt Wicked with PVOD is that the movie had way more repeat viewership than the average movie. Part of the reasons it had legs was because the fans kept rewatching it in theaters again and again.

I think it was stupid to put it on PVOD so early, because the fans and general audiences would have still bought the movie if it came out a few weeks later.

But what did they lose?

$26M in one day, $70M for the week? Many films in theaters would kill for that.

Some of these are big fans just buying it, as has been mentioned. Some are people who were not going to the theater anyway. Strike while the hype is hot. The numbers are impressive IMO.

If you were going to the theater next week for the sing-along version with your friends, and you bought it, you’re still going. If you had no intention of going to the theater, you bought it. That’s extra sales. The theater numbers can’t hold up forever, and aren’t more important than overall sales.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I just watched Wicked on Prime. WOW what a great movie!

The sets, the costuming, all the talented actors! Just great!

This movie had a LOT of practical effects mixed with CGI, very detailed practical sets, countless detailed costumes, many, many talented actors!

I was saying to myself, "This must have cost a fortune to make!"

I checked The Numbers site. IT ONLY COST 145 MILLION ALLEGEDLY!

Mufasa cost 200 Million??? She Hulk cost 25 Million an episode??

Everything Disney does seems to have bloated budgets?????!!!!???

Is Disney doing some money laundering???

 

[BrianLo]

But what did they lose?

$26M in one day, $70M for the week? Many films in theaters would kill for that.

Some of these are big fans just buying it, as has been mentioned. Some are people who were not going to the theater anyway. Strike while the hype is hot. The numbers are impressive IMO.

If you were going to the theater next week for the sing-along version with your friends, and you bought it, you’re still going. If you had no intention of going to the theater, you bought it. That’s extra sales. The theater numbers can’t hold up forever, and aren’t more important than overall sales.

Maybe 30 million theatrically? It was trending further than Moana for a lot of its run outside holiday weekends. The evidence that more people jumped on PVOD seems defensive since those numbers are largely out of context. Would less people have bought PVOD it if waited until after MLK weekend, or longer? Was PVOD strong because it was early, or because it was intrinsic to the movie and was going to be strong regardless?

It’s kind of one of those things we’ll never know exactly. But we do know theatrical take softened compared to the course it was on before and PVOD (defensively) was impressive. We will know though if executives actually think the wrong decision was made if they change strategies with Wicked 2.

Chapek tried all these strategies with Disney, there’s a reason we’re back where we started.

 

[Disney Irish]

Maybe 30 million theatrically? It was trending further than Moana for a lot of its run outside holiday weekends. The evidence that more people jumped on PVOD seems defensive since those numbers are largely out of context. Would less people have bought PVOD it if waited until after MLK weekend, or longer? Was PVOD strong because it was early, or because it was intrinsic to the movie and was going to be strong regardless?

It’s kind of one of those things we’ll never know exactly. But we do know theatrical take softened compared to the course it was on before and PVOD (defensively) was impressive. We will know though if executives actually think the wrong decision was made if they change strategies with Wicked 2.

Chapek tried all these strategies with Disney, there’s a reason we’re back where we started.

As Comcast has held strong to their 45day release strategy for years now (with rare exceptions, though none come to mind) I think its safe to assume (at least for now) they they see no issue despite what some here think. I think them releasing numbers was to assure those watching on and second guessing that strategy that they still feel confident in that decision.