Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

Wicked definitely yielded money by releasing digitally early. The question is how much. Releasing the PVOD amounts is a defensive maneuver, because I think they know they kind of screwed up

They probably also didn’t expect it to do that well domestically or hold on that long when they made that roadmap.

 

[Disney Irish]

It's not really surprising for me, given that all the early December wide releases went belly-up instantly, a lot of the awards-bait titles are getting one screen at the most (especially outside big cities), and there's next to nothing opening wide this month. Moana 2 is still hanging about, why not Wicked?

Diminishing returns, it’s starting to get sub-$1M days. That is on average the point when movies drastically lose theaters. I think the only thing keeping it in that many theaters is there is no major release happening for January.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Wicked definitely yielded money by releasing digitally early. The question is how much. Releasing the PVOD amounts is a defensive maneuver, because I think they know they kind of screwed up

They probably also didn’t expect it to do that well domestically or hold on that long when they made that roadmap.

Universal has been the most aggressive when it comes to releasing their movies to PVOD within 45 days of release.

I don't why they didn't just wait another week until after the holidays were over.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Moana 2 is now up to $989 million worldwide, will hit $1 billion this week

Wicked up to $697 million.

Mufasa is at about $540 million.

Nosferatu has reached $135 million against a $50 million budget, which is impressive considering the number of people concerned about it recouping that cost before Xmas.

 

[BrianLo]

Moana 2 is now up to $989 million worldwide, will hit $1 billion this week

Wicked up to $697 million.

Mufasa is at about $540 million.

Nosferatu has reached $135 million against a $50 million budget, which is impressive considering the number of people concerned about it recouping that cost before Xmas.

I think there’s an over eagerness to declare films finished/flat prematurely on this subthread. But the same legs that apply to opening weekend multipliers are relevant to the tail. And a pretty standard multiple is at least 3X.

So if Moana added 30 million this week, it’s still probably destined for another 60. Mufasa did 60 and is still going to add another 120-150. Etc. this part is boring perhaps, but can meaningfully impact the final endpoint. Especially in January where we have another US holiday and not exactly a ton of releases that steal screens.

 

[Serpico Jones]

The budgets for these big tent pole movies are going to have to come down considerably.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Universal has been the most aggressive when it comes to releasing their movies to PVOD within 45 days of release.

It may be that their "take" of the theatrical BO lessens as time moves on, and they'd rather get full price on DVD and VOD views compared to only 30-40% of BO.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

The budgets for these big tent pole movies are going to have to come down considerably.

NO.

 

[Disney Irish]

The budgets for these big tent pole movies are going to have to come down considerably.

This has been discussed many times over in these threads, and while I agree and some of that seems to be happening overall, the end result is that by and large with Disney movies as long as they are good the budget can be as much as they want and they still seem to make bank. But yes they should come down by 15-20% in my opinion, and that would make even the most modest box office returns seem brighter.

 

[Ghost93]

Wicked definitely yielded money by releasing digitally early. The question is how much. Releasing the PVOD amounts is a defensive maneuver, because I think they know they kind of screwed up

They probably also didn’t expect it to do that well domestically or hold on that long when they made that roadmap.

I think what hurt Wicked with PVOD is that the movie had way more repeat viewership than the average movie. Part of the reasons it had legs was because the fans kept rewatching it in theaters again and again.

I think it was stupid to put it on PVOD so early, because the fans and general audiences would have still bought the movie if it came out a few weeks later.

 

[Fox&Hound]

I am kinda sad to see Moana 2 do so insanely well. Because I hate to say it but the movie was just not good. At all. And I am afraid Disney will learn all the wrong lessons from it.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Perhaps it is more of an awards season bump…. As I don’t think a film like Poor Things would of grossed nearly as much without all the award nominations it received through the season… or the year of Everything, Everywhere All at Once… the film was rereleased in theaters and the 5.00 rental was raised to 20.00… it added to it’s gross because of it

I do agree that Wicked probably would not benefit as much as those…,as the crowds did come out for it…. I still think it was a mistake to release it this early…it probably would have made that anyway as well as add to it’s theatrical gross…. It was having better holds than Moana…. It was not a coincidence the opposite happen last week

I also understand studios are now using theatrical as an advertisement for their streaming services… the data shows movies do better on the various services if they go to theaters first…. But they will still have that ability later on

Wicked definitely yielded money by releasing digitally early. The question is how much. Releasing the PVOD amounts is a defensive maneuver, because I think they know they kind of screwed up

They probably also didn’t expect it to do that well domestically or hold on that long when they made that roadmap.

I think what hurt Wicked with PVOD is that the movie had way more repeat viewership than the average movie. Part of the reasons it had legs was because the fans kept rewatching it in theaters again and again.

I think it was stupid to put it on PVOD so early, because the fans and general audiences would have still bought the movie if it came out a few weeks later.

But what did they lose?

$26M in one day, $70M for the week? Many films in theaters would kill for that.

Some of these are big fans just buying it, as has been mentioned. Some are people who were not going to the theater anyway. Strike while the hype is hot. The numbers are impressive IMO.

If you were going to the theater next week for the sing-along version with your friends, and you bought it, you’re still going. If you had no intention of going to the theater, you bought it. That’s extra sales. The theater numbers can’t hold up forever, and aren’t more important than overall sales.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I just watched Wicked on Prime. WOW what a great movie!

The sets, the costuming, all the talented actors! Just great!

This movie had a LOT of practical effects mixed with CGI, very detailed practical sets, countless detailed costumes, many, many talented actors!

I was saying to myself, "This must have cost a fortune to make!"

I checked The Numbers site. IT ONLY COST 145 MILLION ALLEGEDLY!

Mufasa cost 200 Million??? She Hulk cost 25 Million an episode??

Everything Disney does seems to have bloated budgets?????!!!!???

Is Disney doing some money laundering???

 

[BrianLo]

But what did they lose?

$26M in one day, $70M for the week? Many films in theaters would kill for that.

Some of these are big fans just buying it, as has been mentioned. Some are people who were not going to the theater anyway. Strike while the hype is hot. The numbers are impressive IMO.

If you were going to the theater next week for the sing-along version with your friends, and you bought it, you’re still going. If you had no intention of going to the theater, you bought it. That’s extra sales. The theater numbers can’t hold up forever, and aren’t more important than overall sales.

Maybe 30 million theatrically? It was trending further than Moana for a lot of its run outside holiday weekends. The evidence that more people jumped on PVOD seems defensive since those numbers are largely out of context. Would less people have bought PVOD it if waited until after MLK weekend, or longer? Was PVOD strong because it was early, or because it was intrinsic to the movie and was going to be strong regardless?

It’s kind of one of those things we’ll never know exactly. But we do know theatrical take softened compared to the course it was on before and PVOD (defensively) was impressive. We will know though if executives actually think the wrong decision was made if they change strategies with Wicked 2.

Chapek tried all these strategies with Disney, there’s a reason we’re back where we started.

 

[Disney Irish]

Maybe 30 million theatrically? It was trending further than Moana for a lot of its run outside holiday weekends. The evidence that more people jumped on PVOD seems defensive since those numbers are largely out of context. Would less people have bought PVOD it if waited until after MLK weekend, or longer? Was PVOD strong because it was early, or because it was intrinsic to the movie and was going to be strong regardless?

It’s kind of one of those things we’ll never know exactly. But we do know theatrical take softened compared to the course it was on before and PVOD (defensively) was impressive. We will know though if executives actually think the wrong decision was made if they change strategies with Wicked 2.

Chapek tried all these strategies with Disney, there’s a reason we’re back where we started.

As Comcast has held strong to their 45day release strategy for years now (with rare exceptions, though none come to mind) I think its safe to assume (at least for now) they they see no issue despite what some here think. I think them releasing numbers was to assure those watching on and second guessing that strategy that they still feel confident in that decision.

 

[BrianLo]

As Comcast has held strong to their 45day release strategy for years now (with rare exceptions, though none come to mind) I think its safe to assume (at least for now) they they see no issue despite what some here think. I think them releasing numbers was to assure those watching on and second guessing that strategy that they still feel confident in that decision.

Certainly. If they don’t change strategies next year, I’m pretty happy to admit they truly did not think they made a mistake.

The PVOD numbers I have no idea of what is or isn’t good. If they act like box office and have a long tail or are front loaded with first run contracts with services, airlines, hotels etc. The only numbers I can attest is that some of the bigger movies have been doing 150M in their home window per deadline post pandemic.

I suspect deadline will provide some commentary in the spring and then we’ll see if executives double down next year.

 

[TP2000]

Hiya, gang! I hope everyone had a fun weekend, although as a former SoCal'er I had to turn off the TV. I have enough incompetence in my life as it is (See: failing tennis game), so I don't need to watch another news conference from LA for awhile.

Here's the final recap from this weekend's box office. Nothing earth shattering, but our three Disney films keep plugging along slowly yet effectively. How many weeks until Snow White opens?

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for July 25, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of July 25, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[TP2000]

The budgets for these big tent pole movies are going to have to come down considerably.

No kidding. Meanwhile... have you seen the offerings for Disneyland's 70th this year? Old parades and old shows brought out of the warehouse. Plus two closed theaters, and some bunting for the Castle and the tram loading area. Yay?

Mufasa cost 200 Million??? She Hulk cost 25 Million an episode??

Everything Disney does seems to have bloated budgets?????!!!!???

Is Disney doing some money laundering???

While I doubt there's anything truly criminal going on, there's definitely some shady business happening in Burbank and Glendale.

Bloated budgets, overpaid execs, entire cubicle armies "working from home", lotso perks for everyone, etc. And once a month, when someone does something entirely predictable and socially acceptable, there's a party in the conference room where they announce that person was "Stunning And Brave!" for doing... predictable, socially acceptable things.

 

[Disney Irish]

Hiya, gang! I hope everyone had a fun weekend, although as a former SoCal'er I had to turn off the TV. I have enough incompetence in my life as it is (See: failing tennis game), so I don't need to watch another news conference from LA for awhile.

Here's the final recap from this weekend's box office. Nothing earth shattering, but our three Disney films keep plugging along slowly yet effectively. How many weeks until Snow White opens?

View attachment 837067

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for July 25, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of July 25, 2025

thenumbers.com

Nothing earth shattering other than Mufasa likely moving into profitability after this past weekend, and Moana inching ever closer to the $1B mark with less than $10M left to go.

 

[Disney Irish]

No kidding. Meanwhile... have you seen the offerings for Disneyland's 70th this year? Old parades and old shows brought out of the warehouse. Plus two closed theaters, and some bunting for the Castle and the tram loading area. Yay?

Nothing to do with the box office or the budget of the movies. If Disney wanted to do something substantial for DL 70th the amount they spend on Mufasa or any other movie wouldn't prevent that. Stop conflating things together.

While I doubt there's anything truly criminal going on, there's definitely some shady business happening in Burbank and Glendale.

Bloated budgets, overpaid execs, entire cubicle armies "working from home", lotso perks for everyone, etc. And once a month, when someone does something entirely predictable and socially acceptable, there's a party in the conference room where they announce that person was "Stunning And Brave!" for doing... predictable, socially acceptable things.

Have any proof of such claims?