Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DisneyWarrior27]

Here's the first pass at domestic box office for this weekend. Moana 2 had a 63% decline from last weekend, which is tempered by it being a big holiday weekend.

But will it get to $1 Billion globally? It seems it might not quite get there on its current trajectory.

Dwayne Johnson was not announced as the celebrity narrator for Candlelight at Disneyland this weekend.

Instead, it's the villainess neighbor from WandaVision, whom I also know from YouTube as being rather hilarious on Parks & Rec a decade ago. Poncho!

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The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for December 6, 2024

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of December 6, 2024

thenumbers.com

Oh it’ll get to $1B alright.

Just not til either year’s end or 2025’s beginning.

 

[Disney Irish]

Oh it’ll get to $1B alright.

Just not til either year’s end or 2025’s beginning.

He doesn't actually pay attention to anything, so don't worry about it, Moana will get to $1B it'll just be a matter of how much over $1B it'll go.

 

[TP2000]

You seem to forget about international numbers which brings its totals up to $600M WW in two weeks. So it has a really good shot to hit $1B if both domestic and international continue at its current trajectory.

No, I saw the $300 Million from overseas box office too. It's just that it already opened in all major overseas markets, and it has had slightly weak legs in the past week. With a big dropoff its second weekend out. Just from looking quickly at a compare/contrast of other recent movies in that demographic, I'm not sure Moana 2 will achieve escape velocity to shoot past $1 Billion.

On the plus side for it, it's got pretty much a free reign at the family movie market for another two weeks. Until the Christmas tentpoles start debuting the 20th; namely The Lion King and another video game flick, Sonic The Hedgehog.

So its got one more big weekend, plus early school holidays starting the 16th, to rack up box office globally. Then it hits headwinds on December 20th. Will it make it to a Billion by early 2025?

Oh it’ll get to $1B alright.

Just not til either year’s end or 2025’s beginning.

Well, I could be totally wrong and it's a movie families will want to go see again in theaters during the Christmas vacation at the end of December. That could solve its problem of fairly weak legs in early December. But on its current trajectory it seems like it's headed towards $850 to $950 Million globally by the time the kids go back to school on January 6th.

Who knows? The good news for Burbank is that with its Made-For-Disney+ modest budget of "only" $150 Million, it's already tipped into profitability this weekend from the global box office. I just don't see the momentum for it getting to, let alone past, $1 Billion at the global box office in the next four weeks.

Moana 2 (2024) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Moana 2 (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

thenumbers.com

 

[Disney Irish]

No, I saw the $300 Million from overseas box office too. It's just that it already opened in all major overseas markets, and it has had slightly weak legs in the past week. With a big dropoff its second weekend out. Just from looking quickly at a compare/contrast of other recent movies in that demographic, I'm not sure Moana 2 will achieve escape velocity to shoot past $1 Billion.

On the plus side for it, it's got pretty much a free reign at the family movie market for another two weeks. Until the Christmas tentpoles start debuting the 20th; namely The Lion King and another video game flick, Sonic The Hedgehog.

So its got one more big weekend, plus early school holidays starting the 16th, to rack up box office globally. Then it hits headwinds on December 20th. Will it make it to a Billion by early 2025?

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Well, I could be totally wrong and it's a movie families will want to go see again in theaters during the Christmas vacation at the end of December. That could solve its problem of fairly weak legs in early December. But on its current trajectory it seems like it's headed towards $850 to $950 Million globally by the time the kids go back to school on January 6th.

Who knows? The good news for Burbank is that with its Made-For-Disney+ modest budget of "only" $150 Million, it's already tipped into profitability this weekend from the global box office. I just don't see the momentum for it getting to, let alone past, $1 Billion at the global box office in the next four weeks.

Moana 2 (2024) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Moana 2 (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

thenumbers.com

It already made almost the entire total that the first one made in just the first two weeks. It just opened in Japan this weekend, meaning it'll likely get a big push in the coming weeks from that region. Not to mention that its likely to continue to gain after the holidays are over in all regions.

What Moana 2 and Wicked both continuing to do well despite having overlapping demographics shows us is that there is room in the market for similar genre movies. So the fact that there are other family movies opening up in the coming weeks doesn't mean Moana 2 automatically drops off. Not to mention that if either Mufasa or Sonic aren't well received then Moana 2 picks up audience looking for something else to watch during the holidays.

So maybe after being on cruises for months not paying attention to the box office, please just wait and see what happens.

 

[DKampy]

Here's the first pass at domestic box office for this weekend. Moana 2 had a 63% decline from last weekend, which is tempered by it being a big holiday weekend.

But will it get to $1 Billion globally? It seems it might not quite get there on its current trajectory.

Dwayne Johnson was not announced as the celebrity narrator for Candlelight at Disneyland this weekend.

Instead, it's the villainess neighbor from WandaVision, whom I also know from YouTube as being rather hilarious on Parks & Rec a decade ago. Poncho!

View attachment 829583

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for December 6, 2024

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of December 6, 2024

thenumbers.com

You know the post Thanksgiving weekend has been notoriously weak as people have getting ready for the holidays distractions…. It is why no big movies typically open this weekend….this actually was a record breaking weekend at the box office… it then picks up again Christmas week

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

You know the post Thanksgiving weekend has been notoriously weak as people have getting ready for the holidays distractions…. It is why no big movies typically open this weekend….this actually was a record breaking weekend at the box office… it then picks up again Christmas week

Exactly why the Christmas holiday will help Moana 2 get to $1B worldwide.

 

[BrianLo]

Well, I could be totally wrong and it's a movie families will want to go see again in theaters during the Christmas vacation at the end of December. That could solve its problem of fairly weak legs in early December.

The trouble is you are trying to normalize a weighted summer seasonal "legs" against a very notorious post thanksgiving lull. The numbers isn't providing guiderails of how movies releases specifically over thanksgiving do, it's providing guiderails largely based on any given release window of the year. The majority of which are summer.

We know successful movies have a much longer seasonal runway during December and tend to have a mid-run hump over the holidays. Otherwise you'd be inaccurately predicting the same thing about Frozen and Frozen 2 right now. That they aren't on a 1 billion trajectory - and yet they went on to 1.3. To not make it just Disney related, we saw the same thing with Migration and Last Wish.

On the other hand International, that doesn't have the same holiday whiplash, only dropped 41%. Which is an excellent hold. What I'm basically after is how is Moana 2 currently pacing compared to Frozen 1/2.

 

[TP2000]

So maybe after being on cruises for months not paying attention to the box office, please just wait and see what happens.

It was only two (2) cruises, with two post-cruise Immersion Trips, plus a family Thanksgiving, spread over the entire autumn. And you can talk to HR, because I know for a fact all those vacations were pre-approved by senior management.

What big Disney movie did I miss since Labor Day? Moana 2 is the first Burbank release in months and months.

You know the post Thanksgiving weekend has been notoriously weak as people have getting ready for the holidays distractions…. It is why no big movies typically open this weekend….this actually was a record breaking weekend at the box office… it then picks up again Christmas week

Yes, which is exactly why I said this...

Well, I could be totally wrong and it's a movie families will want to go see again in theaters during the Christmas vacation at the end of December. That could solve its problem of fairly weak legs in early December. But on its current trajectory it seems like it's headed towards $850 to $950 Million globally by the time the kids go back to school on January 6th.

My hunch, based on about an 8 second glance at a chart online and some overseas box office numbers compared to Beauty & The Beast in 2017, could be totally wrong. And Moana 2 will hit a Billion globally by Christmas Day and then coast towards $1.2 Billion by Martin Luther King weekend in January.

But it needs to regain just a bit of steam to pull that off. If it keeps losing box office at the rate of the past 7 days it won't get past $900 Million.

Again, the good news is that it's already profitable, owing to its "cheap" $150 Million budget as a Disney+ TV show.

 

[Disney Irish]

It was only two (2) cruises, with two post-cruise Immersion Trips, plus a family Thanksgiving, spread over the entire autumn. And you can talk to HR, because I know for a fact all those vacations were pre-approved by senior management.

What big Disney movie did I miss since Labor Day? Moana 2 is the first Burbank release in months and months.



Yes, which is exactly why I said this...



My hunch, based on about an 8 second glance at a chart online and some overseas box office numbers compared to Beauty & The Beast in 2017, could be totally wrong. And Moana 2 will hit a Billion globally by Christmas Day and then coast towards $1.2 Billion by Martin Luther King weekend in January.

But it needs to regain just a bit of steam to pull that off. If it keeps losing box office at the rate of the past 7 days it won't get past $900 Million.

Again, the good news is that it's already profitable, owing to its "cheap" $150 Million budget as a Disney+ TV show.

Maybe instead of taking 8 seconds to glace at a chart; you take time to actually understand the market and realize that what others tell you might be more accurate than the 8 seconds you take.

 

[Chi84]

Maybe instead of taking 8 seconds to glace at a chart; you take time to actually understand the market and realize that what others tell you might be more accurate than the 8 seconds you take.

Don’t you guys get exhausted saying the same thing over and over? And then expecting a different result?

 

[DKampy]

I

What big Disney movie did I miss since Labor Day? Moana 2 is the first Burbank release in months and months

great look at the box office in a way you can frame it to fit your narrative that Disney needs Moana to make a billion dollars at the box office while ignoring That Disney has the 2 biggest movies of the year in Deadpool and Wolverine and Inside Out 2…. As well as being the top studio of the year

I have my own hunch…. There is a reason you waited till now to come back…. You’re hoping you can say “wow… Moana 2 can’t even break a Billion…. Which should have been and easy slam dunk”…. And are expecting Mufasa to underperform

 

[Chi84]

great look at the box office in a way you can frame it to fit your narrative that Disney needs Moana to make a billion dollars at the box office while ignoring That Disney has the 2 biggest movies of the year in Deadpool and Wolverine and Inside Out 2…. As well as being the top studio of the year

I have my own hunch…. There is a reason you waited till now to come back…. You’re hoping you can say “wow… Moana 2 can’t even break a Billion…. Which should have been and easy slam dunk”…. And are expecting Mufasa to underperform

Once again - different movie, same result.

 

[TalkingHead]

It’s 10(?) days until Mufasa opens. Guessing that’ll cannibalize some of Moana’s business assuming it gets similar or better reviews. (Moana 2 is down to 62 on RT and, less of a general audience metric but still telling, 2.9 on Letterboxd).

 

[Disney Irish]

Don’t you guys get exhausted saying the same thing over and over? And then expecting a different result?

Its not for him, though I could be surprised and he changes. We have new members all the time; and if all they see is his posts with no counter they would assume that he has some insight to the box office and just assume his posts as fact, when its not. Its the same reason that others also counter his posts or any others counter mine or anyone else's here.

 

[Chi84]

Its not for him, though I could be surprised and he changes. We have new members all the time; and if all they see is his posts with no counter they would assume that he has some insight to the box office and just assume his posts as fact, when its not. Its the same reason that others also counter his posts or any others counter mine or anyone else's here.

It’ll take new posters a page or two to figure it out but that’s just my opinion.

 

[Disney Irish]

It’ll take new posters a page or two to figure it out but that’s just my opinion.

You're making assumptions about posters that can't be made. Not every poster has the same ability to sniff out what you or others do, for example we have young posters and even posters who are on the spectrum.

 

[Chi84]

You're making assumptions about posters that can't be made. Not every poster has the same ability to sniff out what you or others do, for example we have young posters and even posters who are on the spectrum.

I suppose you’re right but some substances are easier to sniff out than others.

 

[Disney Irish]

I suppose you’re right but some substances are easier to sniff out than others.

Is it though? We've seen when things go unchecked that they become the de-facto truth for many. Just because you can sniff it out doesn't mean others have the ability to do the same or will even question the validity of what is being said and instead just take it as truth.

 

[TP2000]

Maybe instead of taking 8 seconds to glace at a chart; you take time to actually understand the market and realize that what others tell you might be more accurate than the 8 seconds you take.

Sometimes it takes me a full 20 seconds to spot a trendline on a chart. I hate math, and hated statistics even more in high school, so it's not a natural skill for me.

But as the Parks division fell into disrepair and began tripping over themselves to lower expectations and cut back on products and offerings, the huge numbers from the Studio divisions became really interesting to me in 2022-2023.

You’re hoping you can say “wow… Moana 2 can’t even break a Billion…. Which should have been and easy slam dunk”…. And are expecting Mufasa to underperform

I'm not the one who started the Billion Dollar Talk on Moana 2. I'm just the guy who looked at the global box office thus far, compared it to previous Billion+ Princess movies, and said "Uh, gang? Are we sure it's going to break a Billion?"

Moana 2 very well may hit the Billion mark. The Christmas school schedule seems to be a big factor there, but at least in my corner of America the kids don't get out of school until December 20th. Maybe it will be the movie that parents and kids want to see again the theater during Christmas break, and it has great legs through late December?

On its current trajectory though, it needs to regain some steam to hit a Billion globally. It can't keep dropping off 50% each week like it did last week. It seems to need legs.

 

[Disney Irish]

Sometimes it takes me a full 20 seconds to spot a trendline on a chart. I hate math, and hated statistics even more in high school, so it's not a natural skill for me.

But as the Parks division fell into disrepair and began tripping over themselves to lower expectations and cut back on products and offerings, the huge numbers from the Studio divisions became really interesting to me in 2022-2023.

Except there was no correlation between how things were happening in the Parks and the Studios, especially in the year range you were talking about.

And if you hate math and statistics why do you insist on trying to do it here? Why not let those that are good at it and like to do it in this context, like @BrianLo, provide the numbers for you and then you can comment on them if you'd like.

I'm not the one who started the Billion Dollar Talk on Moana 2. I'm just the guy who looked at the global box office thus far, compared it to previous Billion+ Princess movies, and said "Uh, gang? Are we sure it's going to break a Billion?"

Moana 2 very well may hit the Billion mark. The Christmas school schedule seems to be a big factor there, but at least in my corner of America the kids don't get out of school until December 20th. Maybe it will be the movie that parents and kids want to see again the theater during Christmas break, and it has great legs through late December?

On its current trajectory though, it needs to regain some steam to hit a Billion globally. It can't keep dropping off 50% each week like it did last week. It seems to need legs.

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You're using the wrong comparisons though. You're using comps from the live action movies not the equivalent animation movies.

For example why didn't you use the more equivalent Frozen 2 which was released at the same time period just 5 years ago that reached $1.4B? I have a feeling its because it doesn't fit your narrative you're trying to set which is to question Moana 2 reaching $1B+.