Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[celluloid]

$5-7b would be a huge step back, though. 2022 was $7.3b and 2023 was $8.9b.

After two months, 2024 is sitting up 12.7% on 2022's first two months, which would project out to around $8.2b for 2024. But if you compare it to 2023 instead, it's down 21.5%, which would project to $7.0b. Obviously, there's a lot of month to month fluctuation that's dependent on what the particular releases are, but $7-8b would be the safer bet. The industry projected $8b back around the start of the year.

Yes, but 2023 and 2022 did not have the longest Hollywood strike in history. So it makes sense. This is why I said between those years originally and not 2023. It would be silly to expect 2023 numbers or beyond.


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[Bullseye1967]

Wicked has never lost popularity. I still sell the soundtrack regularly, and there’s a limited edition witch-shaped vinyl single coming out in April with Chenoweth singing on one side and Mendel on the other.

The film will have a built in audience of WoOz fans, Wicked fans, Ariana Grande fans, etc.

Still one of the worst books I’ve ever read, but I enjoyed the show!

 

[Tony the Tigger]

She’s had a much stronger career than Carrie Fischer as well, already.

Really the only person who was projected into leading man stardom was Harrison Ford at this point.

…and that was because of Indiana Jones, IMO.

 

[Tha Realest]

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire I can see doing well, but Beetlejuice Beetlejuice has such a high bar to clear to avoid being a colossal disappointment and I'm not sure the attached cast and crew can manage it in 2024.

As for Wicked, which is (though that teaser didn't mention it) the first half of a two-part adaptation, while it's telling that Disney has hastily scheduled Moana 2 against it - it was set to be the only Thanksgiving weekend wide release until Disney made its move - out of fears that it could be the next Wonka in appealing to a multigenerational crowd, it's still a bit up in the air for me as to predicting its box office prospects. The musical is over 20 years old at this point and has had a fair deal of imitations from Disney alone (even the setup of Wish is similar to the Elphaba-Wizard dynamic), and it so far looks like the kind of all-CGI backdrop "spectacle" that I think audiences are starting to sour on. If Disney's live-action remakes aren't getting people through the door the way they used to, a film like this with a similar aesthetic is a riskier bet than it would have been pre-Covid.

Ortega has headlined successful films and has starred in one of Netflix’s biggest shows ever.

She’s a legit movie star

 

[flynnibus]

Just curious for your thoughts? I am no Dune fan but I heard that Dune 2 is very well done.

It's an epic film for sure. But not going for mass market popcorn flick type... It feels more like a Nolan film... or like 2001. Some insane visuals... really powerful directing (IMO)... but it feels like it plays out like a novel, where the pacing is much slower and feels more like a journey, instead of hopping from hot spot to hot spot like so many movies do.

It's nice to have a film that isn't full of eye rolling obvious next moves. I only have one plot convenience complaint.. but wouldn't be appropriate without spoilers.

 

[Phroobar]

Ortega has headlined successful films and has starred in one of Netflix’s biggest shows ever.

She’s a legit movie star

She is a movie star even though she has only recently done horror for the most part. Stuck in the Middle was pretty horrifying though.

She does quirky characters like Johnny Depp does. I see good things for her in the future.

 

[Miss Rori]

It's an epic film for sure. But not going for mass market popcorn flick type... It feels more like a Nolan film... or like 2001. Some insane visuals... really powerful directing (IMO)... but it feels like it plays out like a novel, where the pacing is much slower and feels more like a journey, instead of hopping from hot spot to hot spot like so many movies do.

I found the film truly exceptional. Given the kind of epic production it is, and how it's already shaping up to be the year's first real blockbuster with audiences, it's wild that Disney chose yesterday to try hyping up Tron: Ares, which already has the aura of the kind of movie that success stories like this are pushing out of the marketplace.

 

[flynnibus]

I found the film truly exceptional. Given the kind of epic production it is, and how it's already shaping up to be the year's first real blockbuster with audiences, it's wild that Disney chose yesterday to try hyping up Tron: Ares, which already has the aura of the kind of movie that success stories like this are pushing out of the marketplace.

Didn't see a thread about it... so started https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/lets-talk-dune-spoilers-included.983194/ - for those Dune convos..

 

[Casper Gutman]

The 2024 box office predictions in this thread are certainly… imaginative.

The surest bets for the year are Despicable Me 4, Inside Out 2, and Deadpool and Wolverine.

Less certain but one’s I’d still wager will do well are Fall Guy, Furiosa, and Moana 2.

I am very skeptical of Twisters, Borderlands, Horizon: An American Saga Parts 1 and 2, Kraven the Hunter, Gladiator 2, and Wicked.

A host of others, including Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Venom 3, and Joker 2 could go either way.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

The 2024 box office predictions in this thread are certainly… imaginative.

The surest bets for the year are Despicable Me 4, Inside Out 2, and Deadpool and Wolverine.

Less certain but one’s I’d still wager will do well are Fall Guy, Furiosa, and Moana 2.

I am very skeptical of Twisters, Borderlands, Horizon: An American Saga Parts 1 and 2, Kraven the Hunter, Gladiator 2, and Wicked.

A host of others, including Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Venom 3, and Joker 2 could go either way.

Moana 2 I'm skeptical about. Turning a few TV show episodes into a movie screams crash grab, and it didn't work for the Clone Wars "movie" either.

Ghostbusters Afterlife was relatively low budget at $75 million, so if they can repeat that it might be another moderate hit that makes money. It seems to make more use of the OG cast this time as well, but that could just be the marketing.

Twisters strikes me as the type of movie a lot of people love. Like The Force Awakens, Jurassic World, and Maverick it's a comfort food type movie that gives us more of exactly what we've seen before.

Gladiator 2 is odd. The first one is a classic but is there any demand for another movie in the Gladiator Cinematic Universe?

Venom 1 and 2 were moderately fun and instantly forgettable. Could be reliable, but may also wear out its' welcome.

Inside Out was good, but I wasn't passionate about it. Might be just me, but I'm not sure it's a movie that people love as much as box office would suggest. Despicable Me and Deadpool are sure bets.

 

[erasure fan1]

Inside Out was good, but I wasn't passionate about it. Might be just me, but I'm not sure it's a movie that people love as much as box office would suggest.

That one will be very interesting to see how it plays out. I can't really even guess how it will do. I could see it doing really well, I could also see it underperforming. I really don't think it would bomb but who knows. I think the initial reviews might play a big factor on this one. If word of mouth is strong I'd see it but like you, I liked it, but it's not something I was clamoring for a sequel to. So if it's not reviewing well, it will be a D+ for me.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Gladiator 2 is odd. The first one is a classic but is there any demand for another movie in the Gladiator Cinematic Universe?

Can anyone match Russell Crowe in his prime?

 

[Casper Gutman]

Twisters strikes me as the type of movie a lot of people love. Like The Force Awakens, Jurassic World, and Maverick it's a comfort food type movie that gives us more of exactly what we've seen before.

I agree with much of this. I’ll add that I don’t know if Moana 2 will be very good, but I think it WILL be a hit (which could be very bad for those of us who like good animation).

As for Twisters, the three films you mentioned were all follow-ups to films with much, MUCH larger cultural footprints and all but World brought back the most important actors from the originals (World did this eventually). Additionally, fighter jets, dinosaurs, and space knights are massively bigger draws in their own right then tornadoes - what was the last successful disaster film? Going even further, Glen Powell is on the rise, but he’s no superstar, and other than him Twisters doesn’t boast any significant names. I just don’t see any reason not to feel Twisters is EXACTLY the kind of ill-advised attempt at nostalgia exploitation that’s been flopping hard recently.

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

yeah but when people arent buy concessions I think the business is in trouble and last couple times ive been to AMC people arent buying sodas or popcorn it seems like the concessions lines are always empty. But thats just me.

Not true in our small town, LOL. The lines are always long for popcorn, candy and drinks. All of those are a big part of our "movie nights". But we only have one cinema so it does pretty well.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I agree with much of this. I’ll add that I don’t know if Moana 2 will be very good, but I think it WILL be a hit (which could be very bad for those of us who like good animation).

As for Twisters, the three films you mentioned were all follow-ups to films with much, MUCH larger cultural footprints and all but World brought back the most important actors from the originals (World did this eventually). Additionally, fighter jets, dinosaurs, and space knights are massively bigger draws in their own right then tornadoes - what was the last successful disaster film? Going even further, Glen Powell is on the rise, but he’s no superstar, and other than him Twisters doesn’t boast any significant names. I just don’t see any reason not to feel Twisters is EXACTLY the kind of ill-advised attempt at nostalgia exploitation that’s been flopping hard recently.

Did anyone care about the characters in Twister though? Like Jurassic Park's dinosaurs, the tornados were the stars. I don't think Helen Hunt or Bill Paxton were big draws at the time. I can't imagine caring about who is acting in the new one.

I don't see Twisters as appealing to nostalgia, but rather as a reliable concept that we know will be fun.

 

[erasure fan1]

I don't see Twisters as appealing to nostalgia, but rather as a reliable concept that we know will be fun.

I see it as both. It made almost 500mil on an 80 some mil budget. That's over 900mil adjusted for inflation. So it was plenty popular. I don't think it will be a top gun Maverick. But it won't surprise me if it does $700/800mil. It really just depends on how fun of a movie it is. No one is expecting Shawshank, so if it delivers on a fun story with cool effects, and personable characters it could do really well.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Twister was in the public consciousness for many years, IMO.

 

[BrianLo]

I’m just finding movies way too hard to predict these days. Mission Impossible 6 under delivered and on the Twisters comp realm we also have Independence Day 2.

They certainly hope it’s Top Gun Maverick energy, but it’s far from a guarantee. Audiences seem so fickle right now. Maverick was just a real theatrical spectacle and Twisters would need that cinematic edge to capture that.

I do think Wicked will do at least fine as a baseline. The mass market holiday musicals seem to generally have legs. Unless it’s not great and it’s core audience spews bad word of mouth.

Really I’m only sticking my neck out for Deadpool. I certainly think a few others will connect and would assume some of the animated films do. But Wish really caught me off guard. Inside Out 2 and Moana 2 should be the surest of sure bets… but here we are.

I do think Gladiator 2 *could* post the biggest loss of the year though. it’s certainly the largest budgeted gamble. Poor Paramount.

 

[erasure fan1]

They certainly hope it’s Top Gun Maverick energy, but it’s far from a guarantee. Audiences seem so fickle right now. Maverick was just a real theatrical spectacle and Twisters would need that cinematic edge to capture that.

Yes, top gun Maverick was awesome. Definitely my favorite movie post pandemic. Like I said earlier, I don't think it can hit that mark. But it absolutely can be a similar spectacle. The formula is there, it's just a matter of if they use it. The 2nd trailer should be the one that goes more into the story. That should give us a good idea as to what the movie is going to be.

I’m just finding movies way too hard to predict these days.

The only thing I'll predict on this one is tons of people showing up with "we got cows!" shirts on. Lol

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I do think Gladiator 2 *could* post the biggest loss of the year though. it’s certainly the largest budgeted gamble. Poor Paramount

Ok I just looked it up. It follows Russell Crowe’s kid with the Emperor’s sister (played by the same actress) and that kid as an adult is played by one of the leads from All Of Us Strangers. (@BuddyThomas ) Also starring Pedro Pascal and Denzel Washington.

It would be cool if Crowe did some narration or something.

I don’t see why this is doomed.