Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disstevefan1]

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THANKS! NOW I WANT JUNIOR MINTS!

 

[Miss Rori]

Great point! Clearly there is a huge family entertainment market for movies that parents can take their children to. Globally.

It's just a shame that Disney seems to have forgotten the ingredients for that winning recipe they themselves created.

You know I always look at that old logo (when was that from, the 1970s?) and remember that they tend to forget the ingredients periodically over the years.

 

[Miss Rori]

Deadpool 3
Inside Out 2
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
Beetlejuice
Wicked

And then the supporting strongs of Twisters, Gladiator 2, Rushed Moana sequel etc...

It is not going to be as wimpy as some people want ot paint like we are going back to 2020 or 2021.

We're definitely getting more big-ticket releases this year, but looking at how so many franchise extensions underperformed last year, the fact that almost all of this year's intended tentpoles are franchise extensions -- many to movies that are upwards of 35 years old, and/or already have beaucoup adaptations, sequels, etc. -- doesn't fill me with hope for a line of successes comparable to the pre-pandemic years.

 

[celluloid]

We're definitely getting more big-ticket releases this year, but looking at how so many franchise extensions underperformed last year, the fact that almost all of this year's intended tentpoles are franchise extensions -- many to movies that are upwards of 35 years old, and/or already have beaucoup adaptations, sequels, etc. -- doesn't fill me with hope for a line of successes comparable to the pre-pandemic years.

I would put money on Beetlejuice, Ghostbusters, and Wicked doing dang well. The others will be supportive players. And these are tentpole in a franchise sense but far more conservative budget in most cases.

For sure fatigue all around, but we are still looking at a theatrical revenue year total closer to 2022 and 2023 than 2020 and 2021. My post was just to point out the healthy progress considering that we had a month and a half of shifting and far less releases due to strike.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Box Office from overseas just got updated today for this past weekend, and you know what's heavily in the Gravy Zone right now? The two family movies released for the holidays that were NOT made by Disney and are still in the Top 10 as the calendar flips over to March. This is Gravy!

Migration: Production $72, Marketing $36, Domestic B.O. Take $72, Foreign B.O. Take $60 = $34 Million Profit
Wonka: Production $125, Marketing $63, Domestic B.O. Take $129, Foreign B.O. Take $161 = $102 Million Profit
Wish: Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic B.O. Take $38, Foreign B.O. Take $70 = $192 Million Loss

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I had lost track (busy at work) for the most part since the holidays…

But wow did they really tank that movie!

Actually…there would be a lot less acrimony here if we made a separate post partum thread about just 2023? It’s surely deserves it….and moved forward with 2024 and beyond separately.

Fans should be able to recognize a disaster and want to discuss the whys and what to dos…
…we can handle that (I’m lying…but I always hope)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What numbers do they inflate? Box office money is still counted the same. Theaters Eat the cost of anything past the first two you see on those subscription plans.

Box office numbers have grown every year since the pandemic. Only reason they are lower than some(but still higher than some post pandemic years) is the writer's strike. It is wild how good Jan/Feb was considering all the moving releases that went around.

Hold tight.

Deadpool 3
Inside Out 2
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
Beetlejuice
Wicked

And then the supporting strongs of Twisters, Gladiator 2, Rushed Moana sequel etc...

It is not going to be as wimpy as some people want ot paint like we are going back to 2020 or 2021.

Yuck…gladiator 2

 

[celluloid]

Yuck…gladiator 2

Likely. Ridley Scott is wild anymore. It will likely surpass 200 million though.

 

[Miss Rori]

I would put money on Beetlejuice, Ghostbusters, and Wicked doing dang well. The others will be supportive players. And these are tentpole in a franchise sense but far more conservative budget in most cases.

For sure fatigue all around, but we are still looking at a theatrical revenue year total closer to 2022 and 2023 than 2020 and 2021. My post was just to point out the healthy progress considering that we had a month and a half of shifting and far less releases due to strike.

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire I can see doing well, but Beetlejuice Beetlejuice has such a high bar to clear to avoid being a colossal disappointment and I'm not sure the attached cast and crew can manage it in 2024.

As for Wicked, which is (though that teaser didn't mention it) the first half of a two-part adaptation, while it's telling that Disney has hastily scheduled Moana 2 against it - it was set to be the only Thanksgiving weekend wide release until Disney made its move - out of fears that it could be the next Wonka in appealing to a multigenerational crowd, it's still a bit up in the air for me as to predicting its box office prospects. The musical is over 20 years old at this point and has had a fair deal of imitations from Disney alone (even the setup of Wish is similar to the Elphaba-Wizard dynamic), and it so far looks like the kind of all-CGI backdrop "spectacle" that I think audiences are starting to sour on. If Disney's live-action remakes aren't getting people through the door the way they used to, a film like this with a similar aesthetic is a riskier bet than it would have been pre-Covid.

 

[celluloid]

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire I can see doing well, but Beetlejuice Beetlejuice has such a high bar to clear to avoid being a colossal disappointment and I'm not sure the attached cast and crew can manage it in 2024.

As for Wicked, which is (though that teaser didn't mention it) the first half of a two-part adaptation, while it's telling that Disney has hastily scheduled Moana 2 against it - it was set to be the only Thanksgiving weekend wide release until Disney made its move - out of fears that it could be the next Wonka in appealing to a multigenerational crowd, it's still a bit up in the air for me as to predicting its box office prospects. The musical is over 20 years old at this point and has had a fair deal of imitations from Disney alone (even the setup of Wish is similar to the Elphaba-Wizard dynamic), and it so far looks like the kind of all-CGI backdrop "spectacle" that I think audiences are starting to sour on. If Disney's live-action remakes aren't getting people through the door the way they used to, a film like this with a similar aesthetic is a riskier bet than it would have been pre-Covid.

The thing is. It has Jenny Ortega for the modern fans, the interest of the 80s not caring too much but want to be a part of it and the Michael Keaton back in the main role. I don't know how solid the writing and directing will be, but I think the hype will be met with it easily breaking 100 million towards 200(and halloween Season play) that will make it a tentpole of these light years. Beetlejuice is such a zeitgiest.(sort of pun intended)

The best thing going for Wicked is it is not made by Disney. The 40 to 50 year old moms are going to come out in droves as well as the theater kids. It will probably do between 200 and 300 million realistically but may hit close to 400 or more if the Thanksgiving era of the past comes back.
Terrible move by Disney to have Moana 2 up against a beloved musical with one that is not even finished with its music yet.

All this to say basically I think that box office by the end of the year will be closer ot the 5 to 7 billion range than 2 to 4 of the past.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Wicked has never lost popularity. I still sell the soundtrack regularly, and there’s a limited edition witch-shaped vinyl single coming out in April with Chenoweth singing on one side and Mendel on the other.

The film will have a built in audience of WoOz fans, Wicked fans, Ariana Grande fans, etc.

Still one of the worst books I’ve ever read, but I enjoyed the show!

 

[Miss Rori]

All this to say basically I think that box office by the end of the year will be closer ot the 5 to 7 billion range than 2 to 4 of the past.

This is a decent argument. I agree that Disney trying to save face after what happened with Wish (because let's face it, that's what they're doing here) with a hastily retooled Moana series-turned-movie is not the wisest move. On the one hand it is a dearly-loved movie and many potential viewers likely won't be aware this sequel wasn't intended for theaters, but on the other hand, if it doesn't do well, it augers a very rough few years for WDFAS ahead since they have no original projects in the pipeline, just more sequels.

 

[BrianLo]

Not the point, but technically she thanked Nichols for championing her to other directors after she was in his Central Park production of The Seagull in 2001. And yes, Star Wars has damaged a lot of actors' careers over the years because it's non-serious work that it's nearly impossible to showcase any real acting ability in.

Ridley didn't have many pre-Star Wars credits to fall back on, so she's essentially still in the process of establishing a career, kind of like Mark Hamill, and he was in nothing particularly useful for years after that. By comparison, I think she's doing just fine.

She’s had a much stronger career than Carrie Fischer as well, already.

Really the only person who was projected into leading man stardom was Harrison Ford at this point.

 

[flynnibus]

Saw dune tonight… trailers for ghostbusters and some others made me actually want to bookmark to see the films.

Can’t remember the last Disney trailer that made me feel that way. Marketing is killing disney IMO

 

[celluloid]

Saw dune tonight… trailers for ghostbusters and some others made me actually want to bookmark to see the films.

Can’t remember the last Disney trailer that made me feel that way. Marketing is killing disney IMO

Just curious for your thoughts? I am no Dune fan but I heard that Dune 2 is very well done.

 

[brideck]

All this to say basically I think that box office by the end of the year will be closer ot the 5 to 7 billion range than 2 to 4 of the past.

$5-7b would be a huge step back, though. 2022 was $7.3b and 2023 was $8.9b.

After two months, 2024 is sitting up 12.7% on 2022's first two months, which would project out to around $8.2b for 2024. But if you compare it to 2023 instead, it's down 21.5%, which would project to $7.0b. Obviously, there's a lot of month to month fluctuation that's dependent on what the particular releases are, but $7-8b would be the safer bet. The industry projected $8b back around the start of the year.

 

[celluloid]

$5-7b would be a huge step back, though. 2022 was $7.3b and 2023 was $8.9b.

After two months, 2024 is sitting up 12.7% on 2022's first two months, which would project out to around $8.2b for 2024. But if you compare it to 2023 instead, it's down 21.5%, which would project to $7.0b. Obviously, there's a lot of month to month fluctuation that's dependent on what the particular releases are, but $7-8b would be the safer bet. The industry projected $8b back around the start of the year.

Yes, but 2023 and 2022 did not have the longest Hollywood strike in history. So it makes sense. This is why I said between those years originally and not 2023. It would be silly to expect 2023 numbers or beyond.


.

 

[Bullseye1967]

Wicked has never lost popularity. I still sell the soundtrack regularly, and there’s a limited edition witch-shaped vinyl single coming out in April with Chenoweth singing on one side and Mendel on the other.

The film will have a built in audience of WoOz fans, Wicked fans, Ariana Grande fans, etc.

Still one of the worst books I’ve ever read, but I enjoyed the show!

 

[Tony the Tigger]

She’s had a much stronger career than Carrie Fischer as well, already.

Really the only person who was projected into leading man stardom was Harrison Ford at this point.

…and that was because of Indiana Jones, IMO.

 

[Tha Realest]

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire I can see doing well, but Beetlejuice Beetlejuice has such a high bar to clear to avoid being a colossal disappointment and I'm not sure the attached cast and crew can manage it in 2024.

As for Wicked, which is (though that teaser didn't mention it) the first half of a two-part adaptation, while it's telling that Disney has hastily scheduled Moana 2 against it - it was set to be the only Thanksgiving weekend wide release until Disney made its move - out of fears that it could be the next Wonka in appealing to a multigenerational crowd, it's still a bit up in the air for me as to predicting its box office prospects. The musical is over 20 years old at this point and has had a fair deal of imitations from Disney alone (even the setup of Wish is similar to the Elphaba-Wizard dynamic), and it so far looks like the kind of all-CGI backdrop "spectacle" that I think audiences are starting to sour on. If Disney's live-action remakes aren't getting people through the door the way they used to, a film like this with a similar aesthetic is a riskier bet than it would have been pre-Covid.

Ortega has headlined successful films and has starred in one of Netflix’s biggest shows ever.

She’s a legit movie star

 

[flynnibus]

Just curious for your thoughts? I am no Dune fan but I heard that Dune 2 is very well done.

It's an epic film for sure. But not going for mass market popcorn flick type... It feels more like a Nolan film... or like 2001. Some insane visuals... really powerful directing (IMO)... but it feels like it plays out like a novel, where the pacing is much slower and feels more like a journey, instead of hopping from hot spot to hot spot like so many movies do.

It's nice to have a film that isn't full of eye rolling obvious next moves. I only have one plot convenience complaint.. but wouldn't be appropriate without spoilers.