Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

My calendar comment was to not limit it to looking at the last six months but the bigger picture.
What their competition was is irrelevant to what audiences wanted to see. There are plenty of times nothing of note is playing in theaters and people still don't rush out to see it. Actually, the opposite is typically true.

We say empty first half of the year yet Sinners grossed over 270 million. So... people clearly made it a thing to see and there have been big things that they are not going to as much as anticipated.
Final Destination is near the franchise high.
All the action releases thus far this year, and there have been more major theatrical releases than horror, have not done this.
The fact is the most profitable films for box office right now are family and horror. There is no disputing this.

And while I don't think M3gan 2.0 is a definite boom, I think it and How to Train your Dragon in the coming weeks is going to show this trend continue.

I think Superman will double its budget domestic easily, but it has a better chance than Fantastic Four, although it should be somewhat novel since it will be the most interesting film that story has gotten.

And yet, it will still pale to the success of smaller investments at the box office this year as action are not.

Family films and horror are serving the studios' theatrical release times best this year.

Alright man, I think you keep missing or avoiding the point, so we’ll see what happens. We can add up the totals at the end of the year and see what will be the top performing movies of the year. I personally think that Avatar will eat the lunch of every horror film this year, but we’ll see.

Also I’ve never said that horror movies don’t serve the studios well. They do. They are cheap and quick to put out. 100% acknowledge and agree with that. That doesn’t mean that they are or will continue to be the top performers. Just that they make quick money for studios because they can be pumped out quickly for cheap, which is good for a studio. But they have less wide appeal for audiences being more niche so are limited box office draws. You even admitted that worldwide they can’t compete as well, so it’s isolated to only here domestic. Which again means limited box office potential when trying to produce movies as a studio for a worldwide audience.

Also I haven’t been discussing family films so don’t know why you keep bringing it up. I think the top movie this year will be a family film with Avatar. So you can mark me down as saying family films are fine, and we can move on from that. It’s only been horror that I’ve been talking about in these discussions.

 

[celluloid]

Alright man, I think you keep missing or avoiding the point, so we’ll see what happens. We can add up the totals at the end of the year and see what will be the top performing movies of the year. I personally think that Avatar will eat the lunch of every horror film this year, but we’ll see.

Also I’ve never said that horror movies don’t serve the studios well. They do. They are cheap and quick to put out. 100% acknowledge and agree with that. That doesn’t mean that they are or will continue to be the top performers. Just that they make quick money for studios because they can be pumped out quickly for cheap, which is good for a studio. But they have less wide appeal for audiences being more niche so are limited box office draws. You even admitted that worldwide they can’t compete as well, so it’s isolated to only here domestic. Which again means limited box office potential when trying to produce movies as a studio for a worldwide audience.

Also I haven’t been discussing family films so don’t know why you keep bringing it up. I think the top movie this year will be a family film with Avatar. So you can mark me down as saying family films are fine, and we can move on from that. It’s only been horror that I’ve been talking about in these discussions.

Why am I missing the point?

I did not say there could not be success in other genre films, I said the trend is that family and horror are the safe bets for studios and their ROI.


It is also not just horror movies that are cheaper and serving. Family films, which I included, are performing better with their same or lower cost as well.

The top family films this year have had a lesser budget than the action films that are showing fatigue. you can take a look at what misterpenguin posted on 400 million dollar movies.

Worldwide the action fatigue is even more dire. We had horror hit over 300 million WW on 90 million dollar and less budgets. So that more serves my point with evidence compared to the near 200 million dollar or over budget that are struggling to make 500 million WW and often less.

 

[Disney Irish]

Why am I missing the point?

I don't know, I've been trying to figure that out, and one of the reasons why I kept engaged in this discussion with you.

I said the trend is that family and horror are the safe bets for studios and their ROI.

Ok, well that isn't the "trend" that I've been talking about. I've been talking specifically about the audience trends of what they go see, not the ROI of it. The ROI to me is a separate discussion surrounding a movies profitability. As audience trends are not dependent on a studios ROI. In fact I would say they are usually at odds with each other since studios tend to chase trends, costs be damned.

It is also not just horror movies that are cheaper and serving. Family films, which I included, are performing better with their same or lower cost as well.

SOME, some family films are cheaper.

The top family films this year have had a lesser budget than the action films that are showing fatigue. you can take a look at what misterpenguin posted on 400 million dollar movies.

This goes without saying, as M:I8 basically just broke the average for the entire year with its $400M budget. Everything else pales in comparison to that in terms of budget.

Worldwide the action fatigue is even more dire. We had horror hit over 300 million WW on 90 million dollar and less budgets. So that more serves my point with evidence compared to the near 200 million dollar or over budget that are struggling to make 500 million WW and often less.

How many horror movies have hit over $300M WW? There has been 21 total in the history of cinema. Sinners is more the outlier rather than the norm, so lets not play like that is some change in the WW trend of horror films.

As for action, I wouldn't say its having fatigue as a genre WW, just certain franchises.

 

[celluloid]

As for action, I wouldn't say its having fatigue as a genre WW, just certain franchises.

You see it in recent years getting worse and more prevalent. Indiana Jones, most recent Superhero films, The Fall Guy, Gladiator II, Mission Impossible etc...
Certain franchies of... I mean the tiredness is amplified when they have gotten long in the tooth. Plenty of evidence to support studios being leary of chasing these. Studios like making money and they follow succefsul trends, so it is directly tied to box office.

How many horror movies have hit over $300M WW? There has been 21 total in the history of cinema. Sinners is more the outlier rather than the norm, so lets not play like that is some change in the WW trend of horror films.

Haha. Exactly. It has only happened 21 times in the history of cinema, and twice in the last 9 months. Sinners and Alien Romulus. How blind would one have to be not to see that as a trend since they claim it has only happened 19 other times in the history of cinema as their argument against it?

All while FInal Destination is going to end over 250 million WW. Which had overlap with Sinner's long play.


That is not even counting Beetlejuice Beetlejuice as it leans so much on comedy, which would mean another.

Also not going to count the Quiet Place films because not 300 million but worth mentioning with the trend to note that each one has come very close to 300 million WW, including the last two and one of them released in very rough 2021.

I am not the one missing anything.

You just don't want to accept it.

 

[Disney Irish]

You see it in recent years getting worse and more prevalent. Indiana Jones, most recent Superhero films, The Fall Guy, Gladiator II, Mission Impossible etc...
Certain franchies of... I mean the tiredness is amplified when they have gotten long in the tooth. Plenty of evidence to support studios being leary of chasing these. Studios like making money and they follow succefsul trends, so it is directly tied to box office.




Haha. Exactly. It has only happened 21 times in the history of cinema, and twice in the last 9 months. Sinners and Alien Romulus. How blind would one have to be not to see that as a trend since they claim it has only happened 19 other times in the history of cinema as their argument against it?

All while FInal Destination is going to end over 250 million WW. Which had overlap with Sinner's long play.


That is not even counting Beetlejuice Beetlejuice as it leans so much on comedy, which would mean another.

Also not going to count the Quiet Place films because not 300 million but worth mentioning with the trend to note that each one has come very close to 300 million WW, including the last two and one of them released in very rough 2021.

I am not the one missing anything.

You just don't want to accept it.

Accept what? I’ve already said a bunch of times that horror has had a good run. I’ve never denied it and even agree with you on it. How many more times do I need to say it for you to get that I’m not arguing that. So there is nothing to accept as I’m already there my friend.

All I’ve been saying for pages now is that horror starting to get fatigue due to overexposure. It’s something that many in the industry is also realizing. It’s so noticeable that HWR even did an article on it at the end of last year -

Why Hollywood Is Terrified of Horror Fatigue in 2025

With dozens of scary titles headed to theaters next year, execs worry it will be harder than ever for a hit to break out: “You don’t want audiences to be satiated by the time you come along.”

www.hollywoodreporter.com

So if the industry is noticing it, why can’t you?

 

[celluloid]

Accept what? I’ve already said a bunch of times that horror has had a good run. I’ve never denied it and even agree with you on it. How many more times do I need to say it for you to get that I’m not arguing that. So there is nothing to accept as I’m already there my friend.

All I’ve been saying for pages now is that horror starting to get fatigue due to overexposure. It’s something that many in the industry is also realizing. It’s so noticeable that HWR even did an article on it at the end of last year -

Why Hollywood Is Terrified of Horror Fatigue in 2025

With dozens of scary titles headed to theaters next year, execs worry it will be harder than ever for a hit to break out: “You don’t want audiences to be satiated by the time you come along.”

www.hollywoodreporter.com

So if the industry is noticing it, why can’t you?

That Article suggests that in 2024 they were "terrified"(they wanted a pun) of it because a lot of releases, but, that is nkt what happened. Many are still earning money and as you pointed out, only 21 in cinemas history have earned 300 million or more worldwide. Two horror have surpassed that and many have come close in the last few years including this one, showing the trend has grown to them playing well as counter programing and audience reception.

Of course saturation becomes an issue risiing fatigue and will happen, but that is obviously not the case right now like it is for action movies in thecycle where most are not hitting even close to their marks in comparison at the box office domestic or WW.

Also, the way trends work is studios go to chase it, so naturally it will get to where most theatrical horror can't succeed, but it is evident from each major studio, that is not the case.
Family and Horror are serving Disney, WB, Universal and Paramount the best right now.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Looks like a L&S threepeat by a decent margin.

 

[Nevermore525]

 

[Disney Irish]

That Article suggests that in 2024 they were "terrified"(they wanted a pun) of it because a lot of releases, but, that is nkt what happened. Many are still earning money and as you pointed out, only 21 in cinemas history have earned 300 million or more worldwide. Two horror have surpassed that and many have come close in the last few years including this one, showing the trend has grown to them playing well as counter programing and audience reception.

Of course saturation becomes an issue risiing fatigue and will happen, but that is obviously not the case right now like it is for action movies in thecycle where most are not hitting even close to their marks in comparison at the box office domestic or WW.

Also, the way trends work is studios go to chase it, so naturally it will get to where most theatrical horror can't succeed, but it is evident from each major studio, that is not the case.
Family and Horror are serving Disney, WB, Universal and Paramount the best right now.

Guess we read different articles. Thank you for the discussion. Have a good day.

 

[celluloid]

Guess we read different articles. Thank you for the discussion. Have a good day.

I am! Living in 2025.

 

[Disney Irish]

I am! Living in 2025.

I said have a good day!

 

[celluloid]

I said have a good day!

Thanks! You too!

Well everyone, I predict more rough waters for the action genre as a whole's latest with competition coming up of How to Train Your Dragon, the family film to hit theaters with if nothing else, a lot of screens.

It will be interesting to see what audiences go for with M3gan 2.0's new angle coming up at the end of the month as that is the next horror release separate from the last two major successes.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Refresh for latest…: Disney’s Lilo & Stitch continued to sew up strong business in its third weekend, with the global cume now at $772.6M as it closes in on $800M WW in the coming days. The international box office tally through Sunday is $436.8M after a $67.7M offshore frame (-47%).

Turning back to Lilo & Stitch, the No. 2 studio release of the year overseas, it’s still the No. 1 non-local film in all material markets across Europe (save Finland and Norway) and everywhere in Latin America.


Japan was new this session, and is the final market to join the party. It opened No. 1 there with $4M to rep the 3rd highest opening for a studio title in 2025 to date, just 2% below A Minecraft Movie. Elsewhere, it is the highest grossing film of the year in France, Italy, Spain, Brazil and Mexico, among others.

Here are the Top 5 to date: Mexico ($56.8M), UK($42.2M), France ($30.4M), Brazil ($28.2M) and Germany ($23.7M).

‘Lilo & Stitch’ Nears $800M Global, ‘Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning’ Tops $450M & ‘Ballerina’ Bows To $51M WW – International Box Office

Lilo & Stitch is nearing $800M at the global box office, while Mission: Impossible - Final Reckoning has topped $450M; Ballerina bowed to $51M Worldwide

deadline.com

 

[TP2000]

Here's the first pass at weekend box office gang. And with a special note to @BrianLo who is in Japan; what is the equivalent of a Target run there? I'm thinking it's probably a visit to a Tokyu My Hands store? There's a giant one I've been to several times in Shinjuku. Have a fabulous time in Japan! Are you going to the Osaka World's Fair by chance?

On to box office. Lilo & Stitch held steady with its normal "legs" against weak competition this weekend. Thunderbolts looks like it will struggle to get to something less than $390 Million globally. Speaking of Japan, Lilo & Stitch numbers aren't in yet, but looking at the foreign numbers overall it did big there; at least $25 Million from its opening weekend!

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for September 5, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of September 5, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[TP2000]

How would I know I need to resize it? This is how it looks on my phone (note the “dark mode”):

View attachment 862493

Oh, geez. They're right. I threw in Captain America 4, just as a more recent example of being a flop.

Thunderbolts comes in 4th place in that race, and this isn't even adjusted for inflation from '21.

 

[celluloid]

Here's the first pass at weekend box office gang. And with a special note to @BrianLo who is in Japan; what is the equivalent of a Target run there? I'm thinking it's probably a visit to a Tokyu My Hands store? There's a giant one I've been to several times in Shinjuku. Have a fabulous time in Japan! Are you going to the Osaka World's Fair by chance?

On to box office. Lilo & Stitch held steady with its normal "legs" against weak competition this weekend. Thunderbolts looks like it will struggle to get to something less than $390 Million globally. Speaking of Japan, Lilo & Stitch numbers aren't in yet, but looking at the foreign numbers overall it did big there; at least $25 Million from its opening weekend!

View attachment 863212

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for September 5, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of September 5, 2025

thenumbers.com

Hey I have been to that one near Shinjuku station! The Don Quijote was kind of a target run for us, which probably should have been more of a Five Below run...but we were randomly buying snackies for kids.

 

[BrianLo]

Have a fabulous time in Japan! Are you going to the Osaka World's Fair by chance?

Thank you for the reminder! I had intended to and forgotten it was on, I definitely will give it a try in a week and a bit. Probably when I do Kobe.

I’m doing a back to back cruise and it wasn’t so Japan heavy originally, but they completely flipped the itinerary. It’s all southern. To say I’m making it up as I go along would be an understatement. Usually consisting of some sort of mountain to hike.

I will have officially visited every major Disney city without having stepped into its theme park. Which I feel earns me some kind of Disney adult with healthy boundaries award. Or just speaks to my even worse traveling addiction.

 

[Disney Irish]

Thanks! You too!

Well everyone, I predict more rough waters for the action genre as a whole's latest with competition coming up of How to Train Your Dragon, the family film to hit theaters with if nothing else, a lot of screens.

It will be interesting to see what audiences go for with M3gan 2.0's new angle coming up at the end of the month as that is the next horror release separate from the last two major successes.

Just a small point of correction if I may....

28 Years Later is actually the next horror release, it comes out on June 20th a week before M3gan 2.0.

 

[celluloid]

Just a small point of correction if I may....

28 Years Later is actually the next horror release, it comes out on June 20th a week before M3gan 2.0.

Nice! I forgot about that one. It will be interesting if they play well together or if 28 years later is 10 years too late. That had quite an impact and following but I only saw parts of the first long ago.

 

[Disney Irish]

Nice! I forgot about that one. It will be interesting if they play well together or if 28 years later is 10 years too late. That had quite an impact and following but I only saw parts of the first long ago.

Not to go around again, but of the two I still think that M3gan 2.0 doesn't perform well. As I said before it looks like they jumped the shark by trying to make her an anti-hero. But we'll see.