Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Why are you apologizing to Little Buford? You didn’t malign them or accuse them of acting intentionally in bad faith.

It was a general apology, but if you need one specifically to you, I'm sorry.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Threepeat?

L&S held at $5m every day this week except $8m on discounted Tuesday.

Will repeat viewings best the John Wick offshoot?

It seems like two completely different audiences. Maybe both will do well.

 

[brideck]

Threepeat?

L&S held at $5m every day this week except $8m on discounted Tuesday.

Will repeat viewings best the John Wick offshoot?

It seems like two completely different audiences. Maybe both will do well.

Lilo & Stitch is certainly still on more screens around me than Ballerina, so it looks like the theaters are thinking that'll be the case at least.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Lilo & Stitch is certainly still on more screens around me than Ballerina, so it looks like the theaters are thinking that'll be the case at least.

Now that you mention it, same here (checked our two AMC locations.)

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Question for the floor:

Thursday night, stitch did over 5 million. Ballerina previews did under 4 million.

Won’t those Thursday night previews get lumped in with ballerina’s Friday night numbers?

But Stitch’s Thursday night numbers will not count, right?

Hmm…

 

[Disney Irish]

Question for the floor:

Thursday night, stitch did over 5 million. Ballerina previews did under 4 million.

Won’t those Thursday night previews get lumped in with ballerina’s Friday night numbers?

But Stitch’s Thursday night numbers will not count, right?

Hmm…

Correct, Thursday previews get lumped into Friday's total because the opening of a movie is technically on a Friday unless otherwise noted. This goes back to when Thursdays used to be real "previews" for an opening where you only had a few showings late night, ie the movie ended after Midnight making it Friday. But now its just extra padding for a movies opening weekend because showings typically start Thursday afternoon for previews.

A Thursday for a movie after opening weekend is counted as any other day.

 

[DKampy]

Threepeat?

L&S held at $5m every day this week except $8m on discounted Tuesday.

Will repeat viewings best the John Wick offshoot?

It seems like two completely different audiences. Maybe both will do well.

L&S is expected to top the weekend….Ballerina is not profiting as well as expected…which is now expected between 25-27…..while Stitch has a better hold then expected…which is now projected to be around 35 million…so yes a threepeat looks likely

 

[celluloid]

The John Wick spinoff is also action fatigue, which follows the downward trend of the year for action and Horror and Family being the trend that audiences have gone to and both genres have had better chances at success.

 

[Disney Irish]

Well Friday numbers are in and action is 3 of the top 5 movies (I lump Karate Kid into action here but it borders action and family) with Ballerina being number 1 -

We'll see how the rest of the weekend unfold but I don't see horror on that of top 5 list, only "family" and "action". So this may be a preview of how the rest of the year will go, as I'm thinking with how the rest of the calendar looks that those two genres with potential help from superheros are going to be the top genres of the year.

 

[celluloid]

Well Friday numbers are in and action is 3 of the top 5 movies (I lump Karate Kid into action here but it borders action and family) with Ballerina being number 1 -

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We'll see how the rest of the weekend unfold but I don't see horror on that of top 5 list, only "family" and "action". So this may be a preview of how the rest of the year will go, as I'm thinking with how the rest of the calendar looks that those two genres with potential help from superheros are going to be the top genres of the year.

There is a Horror movie performing well against its microbhdget from A24. Which is right below one of the best performing horror of the year. There was no horror out for the past few weeks so it would be silly to say there is a trend of action doing well when they are flopping. I don't think Balerina's 80 million budget will help it enough. Bht if any can, it's a Wick following action film.

Remember trends as a whole does not mean there is no way an action can't play well or a horror cannot bomb.

Ot suffered from the trend we saw talked about pages ago.

Remember, just because they are not in the top five of this weekend of newer releases does not mean they already had their time.

 

[Disney Irish]

There is a Horror movie performing well against its microbhdget from A24. Which is right below one of the best performing horror of the year. There was no horror out for the past few weeks so it would be silly to say there is a trend of action doing well when they are flopping. I don't think Balerina's 80 million budget will help it enough. Bht if any can, it's a Wick following action film.

Remember trends as a whole does not mean there is no way an action can't play well or a horror cannot bomb.

Ot suffered from the trend we saw talked about pages ago.

Remember, just because they are not in the top five of this weekend of newer releases does not mean they already had their time.

You might think its "silly", but I'm just following the numbers and looking at the release calendar for the rest of 2025. We'll see how things plays out over the coming weeks and the rest of the year.

Also remember that just because 2 horror movies have done really well this year doesn't mean that there isn't an overall trend change in audiences appetite for horror, as previously discussed. The next tests for the genre will come in 2 weeks when 28 Years Later comes out, and then following week when M3gan 2.0 comes out, 2 back-to-back horror movies. Right now tracking is what I would consider soft for both, but we'll see. Of the two I think 28 Years Later will be better accepted by audiences, but again we'll see.

Personally I think M3gan might have jumped the shark with this sequel, and its a shame as the first one was good. The trailer for the sequel comes across as dumb, especially trying to turn her into an anti-hero. That would be like trying to turn Chucky into an anti-hero, it would just ruin the franchise and think that is happening here. We'll see if audiences are receptive of that, but I have my doubts.

So overall I think horror had its time the last couple years and the beginning of this year and it was a good run in this current era, I just think that time might be starting to come to its end for the rest of 2025.

 

[DKampy]

Personally I think M3gan might have jumped the shark with this sequel, and it’s a shame as the first one was good. The trailer for the sequel comes across as dumb, especially trying to turn her into an anti-hero. That would be like trying to turn Chucky into an anti-hero, it would just ruin the franchise and think that is happening here. We'll see if audiences are receptive of that, but I have my doubts.

I don’t see Megan proving to be a new franchise….although to be fair…. From the trailers it feels as if it has flipped from the horror to action genre…. It gives me Terminator rip off vibes… the film is tracking at a 35 million opening… which is not great…as that is around where the first one opened….you would think more would be expected of a sequel to a buzzy, leggy hit

 

[Tony the Tigger]

You might think its "silly", but I'm just following the numbers and looking at the release calendar for the rest of 2025. We'll see how things plays out over the coming weeks and the rest of the year.

Also remember that just because 2 horror movies have done really well this year doesn't mean that there isn't an overall trend change in audiences appetite for horror, as previously discussed. The next tests for the genre will come in 2 weeks when 28 Years Later comes out, and then following week when M3gan 2.0 comes out, 2 back-to-back horror movies. Right now tracking is what I would consider soft for both, but we'll see. Of the two I think 28 Years Later will be better accepted by audiences, but again we'll see.

Personally I think M3gan might have jumped the shark with this sequel, and its a shame as the first one was good. The trailer for the sequel comes across as dumb, especially trying to turn her into an anti-hero. That would be like trying to turn Chucky into an anti-hero, it would just ruin the franchise and think that is happening here. We'll see if audiences are receptive of that, but I have my doubts.

So overall I think horror had its time the last couple years and the beginning of this year and it was a good run in this current era, I just think that time might be starting to come to its end for the rest of 2025.

The horror genre has been around forever and isn’t going anywhere.

 

[Disney Irish]

The horror genre has been around forever and isn’t going anywhere.

Never said it was going away. But just like every genre it does go through cycles of highs and lows. And it’s starting to look like this current cycle of it being at its high is slowly coming to an end. I still fully expect horror movies to be made, because they are cheap, doesn’t mean audiences will be eating up like they have the last couple years.

 

[celluloid]

You might think its "silly", but I'm just following the numbers and looking at the release calendar for the rest of 2025. We'll see how things plays out over the coming weeks and the rest of the year.

Also remember that just because 2 horror movies have done really well this year doesn't mean that there isn't an overall trend change in audiences appetite for horror, as previously discussed. The next tests for the genre will come in 2 weeks when 28 Years Later comes out, and then following week when M3gan 2.0 comes out, 2 back-to-back horror movies. Right now tracking is what I would consider soft for both, but we'll see. Of the two I think 28 Years Later will be better accepted by audiences, but again we'll see.

Personally I think M3gan might have jumped the shark with this sequel, and its a shame as the first one was good. The trailer for the sequel comes across as dumb, especially trying to turn her into an anti-hero. That would be like trying to turn Chucky into an anti-hero, it would just ruin the franchise and think that is happening here. We'll see if audiences are receptive of that, but I have my doubts.

So overall I think horror had its time the last couple years and the beginning of this year and it was a good run in this current era, I just think that time might be starting to come to its end for the rest of 2025.

Trends don't care about the calendar. It was still the same trend last year's end with this happening.

Three horror films playing at the same time doing as well as these have is very rare. Particularly woth Sinners and Final Destination.

 

[Disney Irish]

Trends don't care about the calendar. It was still the same trend last year's end with this happening.

Three horror films playing st tje same.time doing as well as these have is very rare. Particularly woth Sinners and Final Destination.

Not to take anything away from those movies. But let’s be honest here, they opened during a very empty first half of the year. Had a few more movies opened up that were popular they may not have done as well. Because as is the case in years past, once more movies open up horror tends to take a backseat to other genres, and I suspect that to happen here the rest of the year. That is what I mean by “looking at the calendar”.

As I said we’ll see what happens. I just sort of doubt horror will be toward the top of the list by the end of the year, more likely the middle.

 

[celluloid]

Not to take anything away from those movies. But let’s be honest here, they opened during a very empty first half of the year. Had a few more movies opened up that were popular they may not have done as well. Because as is the case in years past, once more movies open up horror tends to take a backseat to other genres, and I suspect that to happen here the rest of the year. That is what I mean by “looking at the calendar”.

As I said we’ll see what happens. I just sort of doubt horror will be toward the top of the list by the end of the year, more likely the middle.

My calendar comment was to not limit it to looking at the last six months but the bigger picture.
What their competition was is irrelevant to what audiences wanted to see. There are plenty of times nothing of note is playing in theaters and people still don't rush out to see it. Actually, the opposite is typically true.

We say empty first half of the year yet Sinners grossed over 270 million. So... people clearly made it a thing to see and there have been big things that they are not going to as much as anticipated.
Final Destination is near the franchise high.
All the action releases thus far this year, and there have been more major theatrical releases than horror, have not done this.
The fact is the most profitable films for box office right now are family and horror. There is no disputing this.

And while I don't think M3gan 2.0 is a definite boom, I think it and How to Train your Dragon in the coming weeks is going to show this trend continue.

I think Superman will double its budget domestic easily, but it has a better chance than Fantastic Four, although it should be somewhat novel since it will be the most interesting film that story has gotten.

And yet, it will still pale to the success of smaller investments at the box office this year as action are not.

Family films and horror are serving the studios' theatrical release times best this year.

 

[Disney Irish]

My calendar comment was to not limit it to looking at the last six months but the bigger picture.
What their competition was is irrelevant to what audiences wanted to see. There are plenty of times nothing of note is playing in theaters and people still don't rush out to see it. Actually, the opposite is typically true.

We say empty first half of the year yet Sinners grossed over 270 million. So... people clearly made it a thing to see and there have been big things that they are not going to as much as anticipated.
Final Destination is near the franchise high.
All the action releases thus far this year, and there have been more major theatrical releases than horror, have not done this.
The fact is the most profitable films for box office right now are family and horror. There is no disputing this.

And while I don't think M3gan 2.0 is a definite boom, I think it and How to Train your Dragon in the coming weeks is going to show this trend continue.

I think Superman will double its budget domestic easily, but it has a better chance than Fantastic Four, although it should be somewhat novel since it will be the most interesting film that story has gotten.

And yet, it will still pale to the success of smaller investments at the box office this year as action are not.

Family films and horror are serving the studios' theatrical release times best this year.

Alright man, I think you keep missing or avoiding the point, so we’ll see what happens. We can add up the totals at the end of the year and see what will be the top performing movies of the year. I personally think that Avatar will eat the lunch of every horror film this year, but we’ll see.

Also I’ve never said that horror movies don’t serve the studios well. They do. They are cheap and quick to put out. 100% acknowledge and agree with that. That doesn’t mean that they are or will continue to be the top performers. Just that they make quick money for studios because they can be pumped out quickly for cheap, which is good for a studio. But they have less wide appeal for audiences being more niche so are limited box office draws. You even admitted that worldwide they can’t compete as well, so it’s isolated to only here domestic. Which again means limited box office potential when trying to produce movies as a studio for a worldwide audience.

Also I haven’t been discussing family films so don’t know why you keep bringing it up. I think the top movie this year will be a family film with Avatar. So you can mark me down as saying family films are fine, and we can move on from that. It’s only been horror that I’ve been talking about in these discussions.

 

[celluloid]

Alright man, I think you keep missing or avoiding the point, so we’ll see what happens. We can add up the totals at the end of the year and see what will be the top performing movies of the year. I personally think that Avatar will eat the lunch of every horror film this year, but we’ll see.

Also I’ve never said that horror movies don’t serve the studios well. They do. They are cheap and quick to put out. 100% acknowledge and agree with that. That doesn’t mean that they are or will continue to be the top performers. Just that they make quick money for studios because they can be pumped out quickly for cheap, which is good for a studio. But they have less wide appeal for audiences being more niche so are limited box office draws. You even admitted that worldwide they can’t compete as well, so it’s isolated to only here domestic. Which again means limited box office potential when trying to produce movies as a studio for a worldwide audience.

Also I haven’t been discussing family films so don’t know why you keep bringing it up. I think the top movie this year will be a family film with Avatar. So you can mark me down as saying family films are fine, and we can move on from that. It’s only been horror that I’ve been talking about in these discussions.

Why am I missing the point?

I did not say there could not be success in other genre films, I said the trend is that family and horror are the safe bets for studios and their ROI.


It is also not just horror movies that are cheaper and serving. Family films, which I included, are performing better with their same or lower cost as well.

The top family films this year have had a lesser budget than the action films that are showing fatigue. you can take a look at what misterpenguin posted on 400 million dollar movies.

Worldwide the action fatigue is even more dire. We had horror hit over 300 million WW on 90 million dollar and less budgets. So that more serves my point with evidence compared to the near 200 million dollar or over budget that are struggling to make 500 million WW and often less.

 

[Disney Irish]

Why am I missing the point?

I don't know, I've been trying to figure that out, and one of the reasons why I kept engaged in this discussion with you.

I said the trend is that family and horror are the safe bets for studios and their ROI.

Ok, well that isn't the "trend" that I've been talking about. I've been talking specifically about the audience trends of what they go see, not the ROI of it. The ROI to me is a separate discussion surrounding a movies profitability. As audience trends are not dependent on a studios ROI. In fact I would say they are usually at odds with each other since studios tend to chase trends, costs be damned.

It is also not just horror movies that are cheaper and serving. Family films, which I included, are performing better with their same or lower cost as well.

SOME, some family films are cheaper.

The top family films this year have had a lesser budget than the action films that are showing fatigue. you can take a look at what misterpenguin posted on 400 million dollar movies.

This goes without saying, as M:I8 basically just broke the average for the entire year with its $400M budget. Everything else pales in comparison to that in terms of budget.

Worldwide the action fatigue is even more dire. We had horror hit over 300 million WW on 90 million dollar and less budgets. So that more serves my point with evidence compared to the near 200 million dollar or over budget that are struggling to make 500 million WW and often less.

How many horror movies have hit over $300M WW? There has been 21 total in the history of cinema. Sinners is more the outlier rather than the norm, so lets not play like that is some change in the WW trend of horror films.

As for action, I wouldn't say its having fatigue as a genre WW, just certain franchises.