Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Define hit. It could help the audience trust and taste cycle upswing.

I don't see them performing better on their investments than the family or horror success there has been in this year so far.
Superman and Fantastic Four have a better chance due to likeability in artists involved and if they are actually heavily enjoyed.

I think Jurassic World, Superman and Fantastic Four are all going to suffer from Fatigue and likely not hit the domestic 400 million plus mark with ease.

It's not about superhero films specificially, they are just the biggest culprit and hardest falling.

You realize that crossing the $400M mark domestically is an incredibly hard task for any film no matter the genre, right? Only 52 films in the history of cinema have crossed that mark like ever, and only 10 of those have happened post-pandemic. The point is that its not a regular occurrence, certainly not the norm, and not really a metric to determine success or even fatigue, especially in the post-pandemic era. At this point a movie has to really be special, ie having a cultural impact, for it to cross $400M domestic.

I appreciate your point-of-view, but I think this one is just not realistic, as its not a metric that I think many films can hit so not something that one should use to determine anything.

 

[celluloid]

You realize that crossing the $400M mark domestically is an incredibly hard task for any film no matter the genre, right? Only 52 films in the history of cinema have crossed that mark like ever, and only 10 of those have happened post-pandemic. The point is that its not a regular occurrence, certainly not the norm, and not really a metric to determine success or even fatigue, especially in the post-pandemic era. At this point a movie has to really be special, ie having a cultural impact, for it to cross $400M domestic.

Of course I realize it. That is why I made the point! We are about to have two movies(and more later) do it this year. The franchises that typically do it or near it should do so with ease...until they don't. And they are typically not anymore.
Tue ones that are crossing it are now typically lower than the 200 million budget the era did.
Partly pandemic...

But mostly fatigue.

 

[Disney Irish]

Of course I realize it. That is why I made the point! We are about to have two movies(and more later) do it this year. The franchises that typically do it or near it should do so woth ease...until they don't. And they are typically not anymore.
Partly pandemic...

But mostly fatigue.

Maybe our definitions are different, but when someone uses typical that means to me its a regular occurrence. And as I just showed this is not something that happens regularly.

For example no DC movies outside of Nolan's Batman trilogy has ever crossed $400M domestic. And I certainly don't think that this new Superman movie will do it. As that is just a franchise that is not typically going to cross that mark. As for the MCU, only 30%, (or 11 of the 36 current films) have ever crossed that mark. So again its not typical for that franchise either, and certainly not done with ease.

I think this is just a metric that isn't realistic, and just automatically sets things up for failure.

 

[DKampy]

Of course I realize it. That is why I made the point! We are about to have two movies(and more later) do it this year.

Yes and perhaps the only other movie that will do that this year is Avatar….so is fantasy Science Fiction on a upward trend

 

[celluloid]

Yes and perhaps the only other movie that will do that this year is Avatar….so is fantasy Science Fiction on a upward trend

Maybe it is. I don't see Avatar 3 doing anywhere close to the first 2. Of course the first wa a phenom and the second burned too many people. Of course still likely to pass 400 but it's got it's own fatigue that the studio is fine with.

Wicked 2 is also a safe bet.

I think How to Train your Dragon has an honest shot but will probably stay around 300-360 if ot fairs well.


But the objective point remains. This year, family and horror are what audiences are seeing near top spots for the studio's investments.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

re: comic book movies -- fatigue, etc.

Even though I don't often share mainstream tastes, I think the movie-going public is pretty aware of the overarching meta of these various franchises. The halcyon days of the MCU are mostly due to the belief that it was all leading to something as a cohesive whole and that that endpoint was going to have a payoff, so all of those movies had inflated performance compared to what a disconnected movie starring the same characters would have had. Likewise, today, people know that there isn't a coherent larger story driving things and are opting out of most of the movies, catching up on whatever interests them on streaming as time allows. If Disney can recapture that sense of direction (or alternatively have each movie contain a can't-miss event -- 3 Spider-Men in 1 movie! Deadpool *and* Wolverine together at last!) then they'll regain plenty of the zeitgeist/event viewers.

For DC, you can't really point at the last handful of movies as representing any real trend. Regardless of the quality of any of the individual movies, everyone knew that they were the last, sad spasms of a connected universe that had had the rug pulled out from under it. There is no world in which movies like that will do well in today's market because (see above) there's largely a misguided sense that superhero movies need to "matter" to a larger story in order to get a large audience. Similarly, people know that the new Superman movie is the start of something new, though it remains to be seen what exactly that something will be. Gunn and Safran's plans seem to be ever-shifting other than knowing what the first 2 movies will be.

I'd categorize expectations for these movies like this:
$400m-$600m -- generic DC/Marvel entries
$600m-$800m -- name-brand DC/Marvel entries (Batman, Superman, etc.)
$800m+ -- zeitgeist releases (either through events(!) or overarching story)

The MCU's last two movies have been just at the bottom of acceptable, and Thunderbolts* is starting to drop off a little faster than Cap 4 did, so it's more than understandable that Disney would pull back a little until they can either focus things toward the next big story or find a way to bring budgets down just a touch for these lower expectation movies. These returns wouldn't be questioned so much if Cap 4/Bolts cost $120m each, like Venom 3 or Kraven.

The idea that this is necessary because it happened once is what needs to go out the window, I think. There should be no expectations of some grand plan just to get you to go see one movie.

Have some cameos, have some intersection, but planning some giant event 10 years from now or more, just stop. Go back to making standalone superhero movies with some continuity and some surprises.

 

[DKampy]

Maybe it is. I don't see Avatar 3 doing anywhere close to the first 2. Of course the first wa a phenom and the second burned too many people. Of course still likely to pass 400 but it's got it's own fatigue that the studio is fine with.

People said the same about the 1st Avatar…. But the 2nd Avatar when on to do even better… which I don’t think you get to near 3 billion without multiple viewings… plus I don’t recall people being burned… I heard the opposite that the 2nd was surprising more enjoyable then the first

Wicked 2 is also a safe bet.

Yes… I agree on Wicked… I forgot about that
I started with movies I thought would hit a billion this year and work from that…. Which has been Stitch, Avatar, maybe Zootopia…. And I don’t think the later will hit 400 domestically

 

[Disney Irish]

re: comic book movies -- fatigue, etc.

Even though I don't often share mainstream tastes, I think the movie-going public is pretty aware of the overarching meta of these various franchises. The halcyon days of the MCU are mostly due to the belief that it was all leading to something as a cohesive whole and that that endpoint was going to have a payoff, so all of those movies had inflated performance compared to what a disconnected movie starring the same characters would have had. Likewise, today, people know that there isn't a coherent larger story driving things and are opting out of most of the movies, catching up on whatever interests them on streaming as time allows. If Disney can recapture that sense of direction (or alternatively have each movie contain a can't-miss event -- 3 Spider-Men in 1 movie! Deadpool *and* Wolverine together at last!) then they'll regain plenty of the zeitgeist/event viewers.

For DC, you can't really point at the last handful of movies as representing any real trend. Regardless of the quality of any of the individual movies, everyone knew that they were the last, sad spasms of a connected universe that had had the rug pulled out from under it. There is no world in which movies like that will do well in today's market because (see above) there's largely a misguided sense that superhero movies need to "matter" to a larger story in order to get a large audience. Similarly, people know that the new Superman movie is the start of something new, though it remains to be seen what exactly that something will be. Gunn and Safran's plans seem to be ever-shifting other than knowing what the first 2 movies will be.

I'd categorize expectations for these movies like this:
$400m-$600m -- generic DC/Marvel entries
$600m-$800m -- name-brand DC/Marvel entries (Batman, Superman, etc.)
$800m+ -- zeitgeist releases (either through events(!) or overarching story)

The MCU's last two movies have been just at the bottom of acceptable, and Thunderbolts* is starting to drop off a little faster than Cap 4 did, so it's more than understandable that Disney would pull back a little until they can either focus things toward the next big story or find a way to bring budgets down just a touch for these lower expectation movies. These returns wouldn't be questioned so much if Cap 4/Bolts cost $120m each, like Venom 3 or Kraven.

In general I agree, and have said for a long time now that expectations (by the public since we don't know what internal expectations are) on these films needs to be reset. I would even say drop your range by $50M on either side in each category to be more realistic. Because $350M used to be the floor for many of these movies up until recently when expectations got out of whack by event films hitting $1B.

 

[celluloid]

People said the same about the 1st Avatar…. But the 2nd Avatar when on to do even better… which I don’t think you get to near 3 billion without multiple viewings… plus I don’t recall people being burned… I heard the opposite that the 2nd was surprising more enjoyable then the first

Yes… I agree on Wicked… I forgot about that
I started with movies I thought would hit a billion this year and work from that…. Which has been Stitch, Avatar, maybe Zootopia…. And I don’t think the later will hit 400 domestically

Wait. Avatar 2 did better? I did not think so by many millions.
But the point remains, none of the of the ones that get close or surpass 400 million, will be Superhero films or primarily action based.


Even in our predictions of multiple films no one is saying it's superhero films, whuch a few years ago still could. With this year it could get close.(Superman I think has the best chance due to origin story and dog. Fantastic four is possible but not likely) If it can happen with multiple films a year, I don't think it is rare Where the 200 million superhero mega budgets should not.


But all this to not bail on the on the fact that Horror and Family are the ones near the top of the list of their stature.

 

[Disney Irish]

But the point remains, none of the of the ones that get close or surpass 400 million, will be Superhero films or primarily action based.


Even in our predictions of multiple films no one is saying it's superhero films, whuch a few years ago still could. With this year it could get close.(Superman I think has the best chance due to origin story and dog. Fantastic four is possible but not likely) If it can happen with multiple films a year, I don't think it is rare Where the 200 million superhero mega budgets should not.


But all this to not bail on the on the fact that Horror and Family are the ones near the top of the list of their stature.

I'm going to ask you a question, because you put this $400M domestic mark as some threshold. Do you think that any horror film can ever hit that mark? I mean we know that family films can. But do you really think a horror film can ever hit that mark? Is there any genre outside of horror that you believe can't also hit that mark?

 

[celluloid]

I'm going to ask you a question, because you put this $400M domestic mark as some threshold. Do you think that any horror film can ever hit that mark? I mean we know that family films can. But do you really think a horror film can ever hit that mark? Is there any genre outside of horror that you believe can't also hit that mark?

Not a threshold. Expectation of what those films were doing on nearing consistently up until two years ago and lower now.

To your question:
Heck not likely often. For many reasons and variables. I was discussing what big summer releases were. But for horrors previous gauge of success it is really healthy this year.

For horror as a genre in broad strokes, they do best when source material is legendary or well bent. We discussed this earlier. Terminator, Alien, Jurassic Park, Sinners, It, Jaws...etc.

Don't forget that Jaws was the original Summer Blockbuster.

Going forward, I would never say never.

Horror does not often get those, but also, in the same sense, it is why you rarely in comparison to investment of it with a budget of 100 million or more.

 

[Disney Irish]

Not a threshold. Expectation of what those films were doing on nearing consistently up until two years ago and lower now.

To your question:
Heck not likely often. For many reasons and variables. I was discussing what big summer releases were. But for horrors previous gage of success it is really healthy this year.

For horror as a genre in broad strokes, they do best when source material is legendary or well bent. We discussed this earlier. Terminator, Alien, Sinners, It, Jaws.

Don't forget that Jaws was the original Summer Blockbuster.

Going forward, I would never say never.

Horror does not often get those, but also, in the same sense, it is why you rarely in comparison to investment of it with a budget of 100 million or more.

Ok, so then lets expand upon that. As you say its an expectation for this $400M domestic, in this case for specific genres such as superhero movies. But where is this expectation of a $400M movie coming from? Because as I mentioned previously very few films in general let alone superhero films have actually hit that mark and none were doing it consistently, so I don't know if there really is that the expectation outside of maybe yourself.

So then is it possible this expectation that you have for a movie hitting $400M domestic just a bit unrealistic? I ask this seriously because I've certainly never heard anybody in the industry use that mark as an expectation, WW numbers yes, but never domestic alone.

 

[celluloid]

Ok, so then lets expand upon that. As you say its an expectation for this $400M domestic. But where is this expectation of a $400M movie coming from? Because as I mentioned very few films in general let alone superhero films have actually hit that mark, so I don't know if there really is that the expectation is outside of maybe yourself.

So then is it possible this expectation that you have for a movie hitting $400M domestic just a bit unrealistic? I ask this seriously because I've certainly never heard anybody in the industry use that mark as an expectation, WW numbers yes, but never domestic alone.

You will find that if you change it to 300 million, the point remains.


Studios have various expectations.


We are talking about what audiences are going to see against the budgets. Top performers, which makes trends the studio's seek.


Films are still getting this income against lesser budgets, so it is not unrealistic by any measure.

 

[Disney Irish]

You will find that if you change it to 300 million, the point remains.


Studios have various expectations.


We are talking about what audiences are going to see against the budgets. Top performers, which makes trends the studio's seek.


Films are still getting this income against lesser budgets, so it is not unrealistic bay any measure.

I think $300M domestic actually changes the conversation. Because when you change the number and look at the lists, it actually more than doubles the number of films that can hit that mark. Going from only 52 movies to over 110 movies. So that is a more realistic expectation here domestically, and one that I think many studios do strive to hit. But $400M domestic is unrealistic as an expectation. And for funsies if you expand it to $250M that brings the total number movies up to over 158. Again a more realistic expectation especially in the post-pandemic era.

Anyways, audiences don't care about the budget of a film, most don't know what they are anyways. And they certainly don't care what a studio expects to make compared to that budget. So it doesn't matter other than for these discussions we have here on our silly forums with the dozen or so people what a film costs compared to how much it makes.

 

[celluloid]

Disney will make less Marvel 200 million budget films making under 300 when they can produce more lilo and stitch for 90 million that makes over 300 Million.

Again,not saying it can't change in the future or that Superhero films are going away, but they will pump those breaks a bit to reinvent.


Audiences may not care about numbers when it's not theirs, but they speak with their wallets.

 

[Disney Irish]

Disney will make less Marvel 200 million budget films making under 300 when they can produce more lilo and stitch for 90 million that makes over 300 Million.

Again,not saying it can't change in the future or that Superhero films are going away, but they will pump those breaks a bit to reinvent.


Audiences may not care about numbers when its, but they speak with their wallets.

Just curious why the focus on only domestic? Why not look at the worldwide numbers, as is traditionally the case? I mean studios do look at that so why discount that in this discussion?

 

[celluloid]

Just curious why the focus on only domestic? Why not look at the worldwide numbers, as is traditionally the case? I mean studios do look at that so why discount that in this discussion?

You can do that too. But it's far more unstable, and really changing the trend, so simplicity is the answer.

Family films and even horror with it's overseas limitations are performing on a rise for the better these past few years than before.

 

[Disney Irish]

You can do that too. But it's far more unstable, and really changing the trend, so simplicity is the answer.

Family films and even horror with it's overseas limitations are performing on a rise for the better these past few years than before.

Fair enough, and I understand your desire to keep it domestic especially in relation to horror.

But just to be fair studios don't just look at domestic for "trends", as the saying goes follow the money. So international is where huge sums of money is made, so they look at the global box office for trends.

 

[celluloid]

Fair enough, and I understand your desire to keep it domestic especially in relation to horror.

But just to be fair studios don't just look at domestic for "trends", as the saying goes follow the money. So international is where huge sums of money is made, so they look at the global box office for trends.

You can do that too and see the growth in international too. You can use the most recent example as just one. Every Final Destination film has grown in international box office, particularly the last two show this with a larger increase.

Studios are seeing that fatigue fir superhero and action internationally too.

 

[Disney Irish]

You can do that too and see the growth in international too. You can use the most recent example as just one. Every Final Destination film has grown in international box office, particularly the last two show this with a larger increase.

It depends on if you do it based on inflation adjusted numbers or not. Because if you do, 4 actually has done the best internationally, and I don't think 7 will catch it -