Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

I’m just trying to find some way to break through to you that a movie isn’t:

(Box Office - Production + inaccurate stab at marketing).

You can’t keep sticking to something that has yet to produce a result we can verify.

(60/40 splits of Box office -(2.5*budget)/2

No assumption about marketing, because marketing is highly elastic to performance.

I don't think 50% of the production budget is an inaccurate stab at marketing. I was open to the idea that there was some new formula or business model Burbank and other major studios were now using that only required them to spend 25% of a movie's production budget on marketing, but no one seems able to provide a link or industry source on that.

If anything, 50% is a slightly lowball figure since Burbank has a famously wide-reaching marketing machine at its disposal, and isn't afraid to spend big marketing money on its mega-budget tentpoles (like the $140 Million that Disney said they spent on The Little Mermaid with a production budget of $250 Million).

Massive Film Marketing Spends Are Back as Summer Tentpole Season Kicks Off

As studios roll the dice on pricey campaigns amid an ultra-competitive, jam-packed summer, the strife at Netflix only bolsters the notion that sustained promotion and an exclusive run in cinemas "builds a brand" for features.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

Marketing Costs Often Exceed Film Production

Expenses for marketing films released to cinemas often exceed cost of producing those films in a Deadline.com analysis of 2023 blockbusters.

marketingmovies.net

I've tried to find some industry source online that says marketing is now only 25% of production, but I can't. Have you been able to find an industry source you can link to that explains why movie studios in the 2020's now only spend 25% of their production budgets on marketing, when they had historically spent an average of 50%?

In the meantime, someone here needs to ask to speak to a Google manager and get them to stop spreading lies and misinformation like this...

 

[TP2000]

Which is just silly because saying that Snow White has essentially lost as much as The Marvels did in 2023 (which this formula indeed shows) is bad. The next two worst movies from the past 2.5 years lost about $100m less than each of those did.

Both Snow White and The Marvels had the same production budgets and had the same box office results, give or take a million or two. So, of course they're going to essentially lose just as much money.

But it's also true that Disney is pretty especially positioned to be able to absorb those kinds of failures. They've been doing it for decades.

Even adjusted for inflation, something tells me the profit/loss statements on The Apple Dumpling Gang and Herbie Goes Bananas wasn't quite as alarming to look at as the profit/loss statements on Snow White and The Marvels.

https://thenumbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Disneys-Snow-White-(2025)/Marvels-The-(2023)?mode=actuals#tab=day_by_day_comparison

 

[TP2000]

Okay gang, before we kick this weekend into party mode , let's do a quick update on Thursday's preview box office. Thunderbolts looks to be keeping its 4,330 theaters this weekend, and Snow White looks to be keeping her 1,300 theaters as well.

Thunderbolts needs a very strong third weekend to keep a momentum towards something north of $450 Million globally that could potentially get it to breakeven by June. And Snow White, well, she just needs to go away. But check back Sunday to see where they all land!

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Sunday August 24, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Sunday August 24, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[BrianLo]

I've tried to find some industry source online that says marketing is now only 25% of production, but I can't.

It’s not, and you know I did not say that. A snarky drive by poster definitely implied it, but they don’t actually engage with me.

I said it’s a floor of 40% on an expensive failure to 100+% on successes and is elastic to performance. I also said you cannot calculate it accurately, because it’s elastic and often far larger than you think it is.

I also did say: that you cannot assign all costs against only one revenue stream, when a production is costed (and advertised) to make money across many revenue streams. It can’t be untangled or you’ll keep getting false numbers.

I suggested if you really only want to count box office revenue you need to remove some cost, because the costs are tangled up against expected revenue and spend in the back end - and that number is 125%, not 150%. Which is NOT an estimate of true total costs, but the relationship box office revenue has against costs.

But at the end of the day, we’re going in circles.

 

[brideck]

Okay gang, before we kick this weekend into party mode...

Just planning to ignore my request?

Feel free to reshare your numbers for these 4 BOMBS!!!!1! so we can see what the difference looks like. Maybe then you could see why this is better, even though it hurts your brain to try to bend it to something that feels real to you.

The movies in question are The Marvels, Dial of Destiny, Haunted Mansion, and Wish. The numbers that you flog differ from reported reality by... well, by a lot. Which is the whole point in this most recent conversation around formulas.

 

[brideck]

Thunderbolts looks to be keeping its 4,330 theaters this weekend, and Snow White looks to be keeping her 1,300 theaters as well.

Also, definitely not. Theater counts typically change on Friday. Snow White will be back to a much lower number after its quick surge since it's available on PVOD now. Thunderbolts* will probably nearly maintain its number, but is going to drop another 30% of its screenings. [Now ~50% of where it opened.]

Thunderbolts* is expected to be in a dogfight with Sinners this weekend for 2nd place behind the new Final Destination, which is pulling in much better reviews than I expected.

 

[brideck]

How’s chronic excuses making from a strawmen assembly line?

You'd have to tell me. Because the fallacies in this thread? They ain't comin' from me.

 

[BrianLo]

Nobody questioned the marketing costs, budget, and profitability of IO2…because the excuse engine got the day off. When this starts…the wash is objectively it’s not doing well.

Unfortunately for you, I’m nothing if not consistent. Here I am correcting IO2 in real time. You probably forget because five of you pulled a disappearing act shortly after.

Inside Out 2: Production $200, Marketing $50, Domestic $350, Overseas $328 = $428 Million Profit & Counting

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Unfortunately for you, I’m nothing if not consistent. Here I am correcting IO2 in real time. You probably forget because five of you pulled a disappearing act shortly after.

What were you “correcting”? Budgetary estimates? Those aren’t hard numbers…and again…nobody questions them on the successful movies

And you again (for the 5 people that self reinforce with the likes)…just skipped the part where I said inside out was great and a huge hit

Keep peeing upwind. Successes aren’t argued…they just have to be proven. The entire issue is “failures aren’t actually failures”

For some reason…that has to be disputed every time

So now the benchmark for the expendables (or whatever the hell this one is called?) is Captain Falcon?

Minute point of order: that was a FAILURE

Yeah…like really it was

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You'd have to tell me. Because the fallacies in this thread? They ain't comin' from me.

Better check the scoreboard again

 

[DKampy]

Thunderbolts* is expected to be in a dogfight with Sinners this weekend for 2nd place behind the new Final Destination, which is pulling in much better reviews than I expected.

The new Final Destination reception(both with critics and audiences)is the most surprising in 2025 to me

It always felt like it had more of niche audience and after the first one it was less predictable…you understood the template… this is one of the best wide releases reviewed movies of the year…. None of the other are even in fresh territory… including the first one…. Perhaps nostalgia really does get more beloved with age

 

[Agent H]

What were you “correcting”? Budgetary estimates? Those aren’t hard numbers…and again…nobody questions them on the successful movies

And you again (for the 5 people that self reinforce with the likes)…just skipped the part where I said inside out was great and a huge hit

Keep peeing upwind. Successes aren’t argued…they just have to be proven. The entire issue is “failures aren’t actually failures”

For some reason…that has to be disputed every time

as you have been told before Disney doesn’t judge whether a movie is a success or failure only in box office performance. It also gets judged in merchandise sales. If it can be translated into the parks in successful ways. And yes in home video sales and how many times it’s steamed on Disney+

So now the benchmark for the expendables (or whatever the hell this one is called?) is Captain Falcon?

Minute point of order: that was a FAILURE

Yeah…like really it was.

Yes. We’re comparing it to the most recent marvel movie. It’s not a direct sequel to anything so if we’re not comparing it to captain America 4 then what should we compare it to? Ps. I would not recommend using the phrase “captain falcon” it’s not a good look.

 

[Disney Irish]

What were you “correcting”? Budgetary estimates? Those aren’t hard numbers…and again…nobody questions them on the successful movies

And you again (for the 5 people that self reinforce with the likes)…just skipped the part where I said inside out was great and a huge hit

Keep peeing upwind. Successes aren’t argued…they just have to be proven. The entire issue is “failures aren’t actually failures”

For some reason…that has to be disputed every time

So now the benchmark for the expendables (or whatever the hell this one is called?) is Captain Falcon?

Minute point of order: that was a FAILURE

Yeah…like really it was

I'll let @BrianLo speak for himself, but the idea is that TP and others constantly overestimate the marketing during the theatrical. So the correction comes in that form, lower the marketing used to being what is typically used during theatrical and it would be consistent across all the discussions win or lose.

Also you keep harping on this "failures aren't failures" thing as if that is what is being said by some (I assume you lump me in that group). No one is saying a movie isn't a failure DURING theatrical, its clear more than a few over the last couple years have fell in that territory, though there is debate among a couple movies that you claim are failures but aren't really but I'll let that go for now. What is being said is the OVERALL if you count ALL monies made during the life of a movie it wouldn't be considered a failure in that sense, that they pretty much all do turn a profit with rare exceptions.

And before you get on the rant of "Disney expects xyz at the box office, they don't expect to lose money", I'd like to point out as @coffeefan rightfully posted, right from Disney's FY24 earnings report right at the top of page 6 -

"The Company incurs significant marketing and advertising costs before and throughout the theatrical release of a film in
an effort to generate public awareness of the film, to increase the public’s intent to view the film and to help generate consumer interest in the subsequent home entertainment and other ancillary markets. These costs are expensed as incurred, which may result in a loss on a film in the theatrical markets, including in periods prior to the theatrical release of the film"

https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2025/01/2024-Annual-Report.pdf

So its clear that Disney not only is ok with a movie losing money during theatrical, they almost expect it. And that they do in order to promote the movie for a post-theatrical market. Now obviously they'd like to minimize those losses as much as possible, but if they lose money they are set to absorb that in their post-theatrical earnings on a movie. This is a new world of the post-pandemic box office my friend. This isn't the 70s, 80, 90s, or even 00s anymore. You have to stop thinking the box office is the end all be all for a movies earning potential, its just the start not the end. And what you consider a "failure" is in reality not a failure to Disney, its a future earner post-theatrical. This is what several of us have been trying to tell you and others for years now.

 

[Agent H]

I'll let @BrianLo speak for himself, but the idea is that TP and others constantly overestimate the marketing during the theatrical. So the correction comes in that form, lower the marketing used to being what is typically used during theatrical and it would be consistent across all the discussions win or lose.

Also you keep harping on this "failures aren't failures" thing as if that is what is being said by some (I assume you lump me in that group). No one is saying a movie isn't a failure DURING theatrical, its clear more than a few over the last couple years have fell in that territory, though there is debate among a couple movies that you claim are failures but aren't really but I'll let that go for now. What is being said is the OVERALL if you count ALL monies made during the life of a movie it wouldn't be considered a failure in that sense, that they pretty much all do turn a profit with rare exceptions.

And before you get on the rant of "Disney expects xyz at the box office, they don't expect to lose money", I'd like to point out as @coffeefan rightfully posted, right from Disney's FY24 earnings report right at the top of page 6 -

"The Company incurs significant marketing and advertising costs before and throughout the theatrical release of a film in
an effort to generate public awareness of the film, to increase the public’s intent to view the film and to help generate consumer interest in the subsequent home entertainment and other ancillary markets. These costs are expensed as incurred, which may result in a loss on a film in the theatrical markets, including in periods prior to the theatrical release of the film"

https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2025/01/2024-Annual-Report.pdf

So its clear that Disney not only is ok with a movie losing money during theatrical, they almost expect it. And that they do in order to promote the movie for a post-theatrical market. Now obviously they'd like to minimize those losses as much as possible, but if they lose money they are set to absorb that in their post-theatrical earnings on a movie. This is a new world of the post-pandemic box office my friend. This isn't the 70s, 80, 90s, or even 00s anymore. You have to stop thinking the box office is the end all be all for a movies earning potential, its just the start not the end. And what you consider a "failure" is in reality not a failure to Disney, its a future earner post-theatrical. This is what several of us have been trying to tell you and others for years now.

Awesome post. This should settle this once and for all.

 

[Chi84]

Awesome post. This should settle this once and for all.

Not if it isn’t read.

 

[Phroobar]

The new Final Destination reception(both with critics and audiences)is the most surprising in 2025 to me

It always felt like it had more of niche audience and after the first one it was less predictable…you understood the template… this is one of the best wide releases reviewed movies of the year…. None of the other are even in fresh territory… including the first one…. Perhaps nostalgia really does get more beloved with age

I don't think it is surprising considering how well both new Scream movies did. I think the reboot "I know what you did last summer" will do well too.

 

[BrianLo]

What were you “correcting”?

The exact same thing I’m doing now. The profit estimates and break even points. Click on my post, it’s directly correcting TP. About inside out 2.

and again…nobody questions them on the successful movies

You are quoting evidence to the contrary…

When you say nobody, what you really mean is yourself.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The exact same thing I’m doing now. The profit estimates and break even points. Click on my post, it’s directly correcting TP. About inside out 2.



You are quoting evidence to the contrary…

When you say nobody, what you really mean is yourself.

There’s only “disagreement” when we got a fish out of water to deal with

A frequent occurrnce these days

 

[Baloo124]

Just realized there's never been a sequel or remake of the 2002 martial arts masterpiece:
Kung Pow! Enter The Fist.

If that classic didn't touch you emotionally one way or another, you're only lying to yourself.

 

[TP2000]

Alrighty gang, the Numbers are in for this weekend's box office. Thunderbolts dropped 49% and now sits at $325 Million globally (only estimates for both domestic and overseas, final tally in tomorrow). It does not have strong legs and does not seem to be on a trajectory to break even at around $450 Million globally. Maybe $400 to $415 Million globally and a loss of around $50 Million for Burbank?

Oh, and here's two more Burbank movies that are still clinging to a few theaters in the USA...

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for May 16, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of May 16, 2025

the-numbers.com