Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Exactly. We don’t purport to know anything. Anything about costs, anything about revenue. Just a stab on the end.

It’s a very difficult leap of logic and I understand why it’s hard to break through. A lot of people are really stuck thinking 1.5X a production budget is what total costs are and that’s the first major fallacy. We know it’s multiples.

I thought some of the deadline sheets would break through; but here we are. I think justifying it really just makes it worse. Trying to explain it just makes it worse. At the end of the day we have three to four pieces of info - production budgets, box office, deadline sheets, financial studio outcomes. The rest is just… hard to break through and the other 90% obstinance.
Every single time something doesn’t rack up $500 worldwide in the first 3 weeks…the same routine starts

The budget and costs becomes “negotiated down” and we question what the money making point is…I guess that becomes a warm glass of milk before bedtime?

But in the end…just more wheel spinning. This one is not worth doing the whole charade again.

Hell…it was done with Mufasa when that looked like a loser early…then two months later it was “just kidding…PSYCH!…I knew all along Disney wins!!!”

Nobody questioned the marketing costs, budget, and profitability of IO2…because the excuse engine got the day off. When this starts…the wash is objectively it’s not doing well.

Lather, rinse
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
If it continues to outpace as it has that may not actually be a loss at the BO, but we'll see. Even if its a slight loss its not the end of the line for the movie, but I know you don't like to talk about that so we'll just leave it there.
Phantom D+ profits again?

The comp is cap 4…which is a loss

No point dancing here on prom night for the 1,000th time
 

DKampy

Well-Known Member
Every single time something doesn’t rack up $500 worldwide in the first 3 weeks…the same routine starts

The budget and costs becomes “negotiated down” and we question what the money making point is…I guess that becomes a warm glass of milk before bedtime?

But in the end…just more wheel spinning. This one is not worth doing the whole charade again.

Hell…it was done with Mufasa when that looked like a loser early…then two months later it was “just kidding…PSYCH!…I knew all along Disney wins!!!”

Nobody questioned the marketing costs, budget, and profitability of IO2…because the excuse engine got the day off. When this starts…the wash is objectively it’s not doing well.

Lather, rinse
Maybe it’s because when a Disney movie becomes an obvious blockbuster…. Certain posters get very quiet…. But then pipe up when there is a narrative to spin Disney as a failing brand…. And that narrative is corrected by others
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Phantom D+ profits again?

The comp is cap 4…which is a loss

No point dancing here on prom night for the 1,000th time
You know there is a whole world of profits for a movie post-theatrical beyond just D+ right? Like digital/dvd, PVOD, airlines/hotels, other streaming services, and finally cable (for example TNT still paying a lot of have all the rights to the MCU movies including new releases). And then last on that list is D+ which yes does bring in money for a movie.

I figure the floor on an MCU movie post-theatrical is between $50-100M for movies like Cap4 and Thunderbolts. So yeah that loss during the BO isn't really a loss at the end of the day, but go ahead and keep spinning on that dance floor like you do.
 

coffeefan

Well-Known Member
Quoting this directly from Disney's financial report:

The Company incurs significant marketing and advertising costs before and throughout the theatrical release of a film in an effort to generate public awareness of the film, to increase the public’s intent to view the film and to help generate consumer interest in the subsequent home entertainment and other ancillary markets. These costs are expensed as incurred, which may result in a loss on a film in the theatrical markets, including in periods prior to the theatrical release of the film.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Quoting this directly from Disney's financial report:

The Company incurs significant marketing and advertising costs before and throughout the theatrical release of a film in an effort to generate public awareness of the film, to increase the public’s intent to view the film and to help generate consumer interest in the subsequent home entertainment and other ancillary markets. These costs are expensed as incurred, which may result in a loss on a film in the theatrical markets, including in periods prior to the theatrical release of the film.
So you mean that Disney actually is ok with and expects a movie to lose money during theatrical, hmm, that counters what several posters claim Disney is thinking.

Guess it really is a brave new world in the realm of the box office. ;)
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
I’m just trying to find some way to break through to you that a movie isn’t:

(Box Office - Production + inaccurate stab at marketing).

You can’t keep sticking to something that has yet to produce a result we can verify.

(60/40 splits of Box office -(2.5*budget)/2

No assumption about marketing, because marketing is highly elastic to performance.

I don't think 50% of the production budget is an inaccurate stab at marketing. I was open to the idea that there was some new formula or business model Burbank and other major studios were now using that only required them to spend 25% of a movie's production budget on marketing, but no one seems able to provide a link or industry source on that.

If anything, 50% is a slightly lowball figure since Burbank has a famously wide-reaching marketing machine at its disposal, and isn't afraid to spend big marketing money on its mega-budget tentpoles (like the $140 Million that Disney said they spent on The Little Mermaid with a production budget of $250 Million).


I've tried to find some industry source online that says marketing is now only 25% of production, but I can't. Have you been able to find an industry source you can link to that explains why movie studios in the 2020's now only spend 25% of their production budgets on marketing, when they had historically spent an average of 50%?

In the meantime, someone here needs to ask to speak to a Google manager and get them to stop spreading lies and misinformation like this...

Why Do You Have To Be So Average.jpg
 
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TP2000

Well-Known Member
Which is just silly because saying that Snow White has essentially lost as much as The Marvels did in 2023 (which this formula indeed shows) is bad. The next two worst movies from the past 2.5 years lost about $100m less than each of those did.

Both Snow White and The Marvels had the same production budgets and had the same box office results, give or take a million or two. So, of course they're going to essentially lose just as much money.

Chick Flicks.jpg


But it's also true that Disney is pretty especially positioned to be able to absorb those kinds of failures. They've been doing it for decades.

Even adjusted for inflation, something tells me the profit/loss statements on The Apple Dumpling Gang and Herbie Goes Bananas wasn't quite as alarming to look at as the profit/loss statements on Snow White and The Marvels. :)

 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Okay gang, before we kick this weekend into party mode 🍸🥳, let's do a quick update on Thursday's preview box office. Thunderbolts looks to be keeping its 4,330 theaters this weekend, and Snow White looks to be keeping her 1,300 theaters as well.

Thunderbolts needs a very strong third weekend to keep a momentum towards something north of $450 Million globally that could potentially get it to breakeven by June. And Snow White, well, she just needs to go away. But check back Sunday to see where they all land!

Say Thursday.jpg


 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
I've tried to find some industry source online that says marketing is now only 25% of production, but I can't.

It’s not, and you know I did not say that. A snarky drive by poster definitely implied it, but they don’t actually engage with me.

I said it’s a floor of 40% on an expensive failure to 100+% on successes and is elastic to performance. I also said you cannot calculate it accurately, because it’s elastic and often far larger than you think it is.

I also did say: that you cannot assign all costs against only one revenue stream, when a production is costed (and advertised) to make money across many revenue streams. It can’t be untangled or you’ll keep getting false numbers.

I suggested if you really only want to count box office revenue you need to remove some cost, because the costs are tangled up against expected revenue and spend in the back end - and that number is 125%, not 150%. Which is NOT an estimate of true total costs, but the relationship box office revenue has against costs.

But at the end of the day, we’re going in circles.
 
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brideck

Well-Known Member
Okay gang, before we kick this weekend into party mode...

Just planning to ignore my request?

Feel free to reshare your numbers for these 4 BOMBS!!!!1! so we can see what the difference looks like. Maybe then you could see why this is better, even though it hurts your brain to try to bend it to something that feels real to you.

The movies in question are The Marvels, Dial of Destiny, Haunted Mansion, and Wish. The numbers that you flog differ from reported reality by... well, by a lot. Which is the whole point in this most recent conversation around formulas.
 

brideck

Well-Known Member
Thunderbolts looks to be keeping its 4,330 theaters this weekend, and Snow White looks to be keeping her 1,300 theaters as well.

Also, definitely not. Theater counts typically change on Friday. Snow White will be back to a much lower number after its quick surge since it's available on PVOD now. Thunderbolts* will probably nearly maintain its number, but is going to drop another 30% of its screenings. [Now ~50% of where it opened.]

Thunderbolts* is expected to be in a dogfight with Sinners this weekend for 2nd place behind the new Final Destination, which is pulling in much better reviews than I expected.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Nobody questioned the marketing costs, budget, and profitability of IO2…because the excuse engine got the day off. When this starts…the wash is objectively it’s not doing well.

Unfortunately for you, I’m nothing if not consistent. Here I am correcting IO2 in real time. You probably forget because five of you pulled a disappearing act shortly after.

Inside Out 2: Production $200, Marketing $50, Domestic $350, Overseas $328 = $428 Million Profit & Counting
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Unfortunately for you, I’m nothing if not consistent. Here I am correcting IO2 in real time. You probably forget because five of you pulled a disappearing act shortly after.
What were you “correcting”? Budgetary estimates? Those aren’t hard numbers…and again…nobody questions them on the successful movies

And you again (for the 5 people that self reinforce with the likes)…just skipped the part where I said inside out was great and a huge hit

Keep peeing upwind. Successes aren’t argued…they just have to be proven. The entire issue is “failures aren’t actually failures”

For some reason…that has to be disputed every time

So now the benchmark for the expendables (or whatever the hell this one is called?) is Captain Falcon?

Minute point of order: that was a FAILURE

Yeah…like really it was
 

DKampy

Well-Known Member
Thunderbolts* is expected to be in a dogfight with Sinners this weekend for 2nd place behind the new Final Destination, which is pulling in much better reviews than I expected.
The new Final Destination reception(both with critics and audiences)is the most surprising in 2025 to me

It always felt like it had more of niche audience and after the first one it was less predictable…you understood the template… this is one of the best wide releases reviewed movies of the year…. None of the other are even in fresh territory… including the first one…. Perhaps nostalgia really does get more beloved with age
 

Agent H

Well-Known Member
What were you “correcting”? Budgetary estimates? Those aren’t hard numbers…and again…nobody questions them on the successful movies

And you again (for the 5 people that self reinforce with the likes)…just skipped the part where I said inside out was great and a huge hit

Keep peeing upwind. Successes aren’t argued…they just have to be proven. The entire issue is “failures aren’t actually failures”

For some reason…that has to be disputed every time
as you have been told before Disney doesn’t judge whether a movie is a success or failure only in box office performance. It also gets judged in merchandise sales. If it can be translated into the parks in successful ways. And yes in home video sales and how many times it’s steamed on Disney+
So now the benchmark for the expendables (or whatever the hell this one is called?) is Captain Falcon?

Minute point of order: that was a FAILURE

Yeah…like really it was.
Yes. We’re comparing it to the most recent marvel movie. It’s not a direct sequel to anything so if we’re not comparing it to captain America 4 then what should we compare it to? Ps. I would not recommend using the phrase “captain falcon” it’s not a good look.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
What were you “correcting”? Budgetary estimates? Those aren’t hard numbers…and again…nobody questions them on the successful movies

And you again (for the 5 people that self reinforce with the likes)…just skipped the part where I said inside out was great and a huge hit

Keep peeing upwind. Successes aren’t argued…they just have to be proven. The entire issue is “failures aren’t actually failures”

For some reason…that has to be disputed every time

So now the benchmark for the expendables (or whatever the hell this one is called?) is Captain Falcon?

Minute point of order: that was a FAILURE

Yeah…like really it was
I'll let @BrianLo speak for himself, but the idea is that TP and others constantly overestimate the marketing during the theatrical. So the correction comes in that form, lower the marketing used to being what is typically used during theatrical and it would be consistent across all the discussions win or lose.

Also you keep harping on this "failures aren't failures" thing as if that is what is being said by some (I assume you lump me in that group). No one is saying a movie isn't a failure DURING theatrical, its clear more than a few over the last couple years have fell in that territory, though there is debate among a couple movies that you claim are failures but aren't really but I'll let that go for now. What is being said is the OVERALL if you count ALL monies made during the life of a movie it wouldn't be considered a failure in that sense, that they pretty much all do turn a profit with rare exceptions.

And before you get on the rant of "Disney expects xyz at the box office, they don't expect to lose money", I'd like to point out as @coffeefan rightfully posted, right from Disney's FY24 earnings report right at the top of page 6 -

"The Company incurs significant marketing and advertising costs before and throughout the theatrical release of a film in
an effort to generate public awareness of the film, to increase the public’s intent to view the film and to help generate consumer interest in the subsequent home entertainment and other ancillary markets. These costs are expensed as incurred, which may result in a loss on a film in the theatrical markets, including in periods prior to the theatrical release of the film"


So its clear that Disney not only is ok with a movie losing money during theatrical, they almost expect it. And that they do in order to promote the movie for a post-theatrical market. Now obviously they'd like to minimize those losses as much as possible, but if they lose money they are set to absorb that in their post-theatrical earnings on a movie. This is a new world of the post-pandemic box office my friend. This isn't the 70s, 80, 90s, or even 00s anymore. You have to stop thinking the box office is the end all be all for a movies earning potential, its just the start not the end. And what you consider a "failure" is in reality not a failure to Disney, its a future earner post-theatrical. This is what several of us have been trying to tell you and others for years now.
 

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