Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Which is just silly because saying that Snow White has essentially lost as much as The Marvels did in 2023 (which this formula indeed shows) is bad. The next two worst movies from the past 2.5 years lost about $100m less than each of those did.

But it's also true that Disney is pretty especially positioned to be able to absorb those kinds of failures. They've been doing it for decades.

Exactly.

It’s vaguely in my nature and day job to repeat myself from various angles for the 20th time years later.

Me too, its why you see me doing the same thing and repeating things over and over even though its been discussed to death. But at a certain point we have to call it out, no reason to dance around it at that point.

 

[Disney Irish]

Thunderbolts* (New Avengers) continues to outpace Cap4 domestically and should hopefully overtake it sometime next week, maybe even this weekend.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Intentional misunderstanding is always super clever around these parts. The likes will be sure to roll in.

How’s chronic excuses making from a strawmen assembly line?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Thunderbolts* (New Avengers) continues to outpace Cap4 domestically and should hopefully overtake it sometime next week, maybe even this weekend.

Now it’s got some legs…they’re gonna “push through” and only post a $20-30 mil loss at the BO

They’re winning like a warlock from mars

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Exactly. We don’t purport to know anything. Anything about costs, anything about revenue. Just a stab on the end.

It’s a very difficult leap of logic and I understand why it’s hard to break through. A lot of people are really stuck thinking 1.5X a production budget is what total costs are and that’s the first major fallacy. We know it’s multiples.

I thought some of the deadline sheets would break through; but here we are. I think justifying it really just makes it worse. Trying to explain it just makes it worse. At the end of the day we have three to four pieces of info - production budgets, box office, deadline sheets, financial studio outcomes. The rest is just… hard to break through and the other 90% obstinance.

Every single time something doesn’t rack up $500 worldwide in the first 3 weeks…the same routine starts

The budget and costs becomes “negotiated down” and we question what the money making point is…I guess that becomes a warm glass of milk before bedtime?

But in the end…just more wheel spinning. This one is not worth doing the whole charade again.

Hell…it was done with Mufasa when that looked like a loser early…then two months later it was “just kidding…PSYCH!…I knew all along Disney wins!!!”

Nobody questioned the marketing costs, budget, and profitability of IO2…because the excuse engine got the day off. When this starts…the wash is objectively it’s not doing well.

Lather, rinse

 

[Disney Irish]

Now it’s got some legs…they’re gonna “push through” and only post a $20-30 mil loss at the BO

If it continues to outpace as it has that may not actually be a loss at the BO, but we'll see. Even if its a slight loss its not the end of the line for the movie, but I know you don't like to talk about that so we'll just leave it there.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

If it continues to outpace as it has that may not actually be a loss at the BO, but we'll see. Even if its a slight loss its not the end of the line for the movie, but I know you don't like to talk about that so we'll just leave it there.

Phantom D+ profits again?

The comp is cap 4…which is a loss

No point dancing here on prom night for the 1,000th time

 

[DKampy]

Every single time something doesn’t rack up $500 worldwide in the first 3 weeks…the same routine starts

The budget and costs becomes “negotiated down” and we question what the money making point is…I guess that becomes a warm glass of milk before bedtime?

But in the end…just more wheel spinning. This one is not worth doing the whole charade again.

Hell…it was done with Mufasa when that looked like a loser early…then two months later it was “just kidding…PSYCH!…I knew all along Disney wins!!!”

Nobody questioned the marketing costs, budget, and profitability of IO2…because the excuse engine got the day off. When this starts…the wash is objectively it’s not doing well.

Lather, rinse

Maybe it’s because when a Disney movie becomes an obvious blockbuster…. Certain posters get very quiet…. But then pipe up when there is a narrative to spin Disney as a failing brand…. And that narrative is corrected by others

 

[Disney Irish]

Phantom D+ profits again?

The comp is cap 4…which is a loss

No point dancing here on prom night for the 1,000th time

You know there is a whole world of profits for a movie post-theatrical beyond just D+ right? Like digital/dvd, PVOD, airlines/hotels, other streaming services, and finally cable (for example TNT still paying a lot of have all the rights to the MCU movies including new releases). And then last on that list is D+ which yes does bring in money for a movie.

I figure the floor on an MCU movie post-theatrical is between $50-100M for movies like Cap4 and Thunderbolts. So yeah that loss during the BO isn't really a loss at the end of the day, but go ahead and keep spinning on that dance floor like you do.

 

[coffeefan]

Quoting this directly from Disney's financial report:

The Company incurs significant marketing and advertising costs before and throughout the theatrical release of a film in an effort to generate public awareness of the film, to increase the public’s intent to view the film and to help generate consumer interest in the subsequent home entertainment and other ancillary markets. These costs are expensed as incurred, which may result in a loss on a film in the theatrical markets, including in periods prior to the theatrical release of the film.

 

[Disney Irish]

Quoting this directly from Disney's financial report:

The Company incurs significant marketing and advertising costs before and throughout the theatrical release of a film in an effort to generate public awareness of the film, to increase the public’s intent to view the film and to help generate consumer interest in the subsequent home entertainment and other ancillary markets. These costs are expensed as incurred, which may result in a loss on a film in the theatrical markets, including in periods prior to the theatrical release of the film.

So you mean that Disney actually is ok with and expects a movie to lose money during theatrical, hmm, that counters what several posters claim Disney is thinking.

Guess it really is a brave new world in the realm of the box office.

 

[TP2000]

I’m just trying to find some way to break through to you that a movie isn’t:

(Box Office - Production + inaccurate stab at marketing).

You can’t keep sticking to something that has yet to produce a result we can verify.

(60/40 splits of Box office -(2.5*budget)/2

No assumption about marketing, because marketing is highly elastic to performance.

I don't think 50% of the production budget is an inaccurate stab at marketing. I was open to the idea that there was some new formula or business model Burbank and other major studios were now using that only required them to spend 25% of a movie's production budget on marketing, but no one seems able to provide a link or industry source on that.

If anything, 50% is a slightly lowball figure since Burbank has a famously wide-reaching marketing machine at its disposal, and isn't afraid to spend big marketing money on its mega-budget tentpoles (like the $140 Million that Disney said they spent on The Little Mermaid with a production budget of $250 Million).

Massive Film Marketing Spends Are Back as Summer Tentpole Season Kicks Off

As studios roll the dice on pricey campaigns amid an ultra-competitive, jam-packed summer, the strife at Netflix only bolsters the notion that sustained promotion and an exclusive run in cinemas "builds a brand" for features.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

Marketing Costs Often Exceed Film Production

Expenses for marketing films released to cinemas often exceed cost of producing those films in a Deadline.com analysis of 2023 blockbusters.

marketingmovies.net

I've tried to find some industry source online that says marketing is now only 25% of production, but I can't. Have you been able to find an industry source you can link to that explains why movie studios in the 2020's now only spend 25% of their production budgets on marketing, when they had historically spent an average of 50%?

In the meantime, someone here needs to ask to speak to a Google manager and get them to stop spreading lies and misinformation like this...

 

[TP2000]

Which is just silly because saying that Snow White has essentially lost as much as The Marvels did in 2023 (which this formula indeed shows) is bad. The next two worst movies from the past 2.5 years lost about $100m less than each of those did.

Both Snow White and The Marvels had the same production budgets and had the same box office results, give or take a million or two. So, of course they're going to essentially lose just as much money.

But it's also true that Disney is pretty especially positioned to be able to absorb those kinds of failures. They've been doing it for decades.

Even adjusted for inflation, something tells me the profit/loss statements on The Apple Dumpling Gang and Herbie Goes Bananas wasn't quite as alarming to look at as the profit/loss statements on Snow White and The Marvels.

https://thenumbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Disneys-Snow-White-(2025)/Marvels-The-(2023)?mode=actuals#tab=day_by_day_comparison

 

[TP2000]

Okay gang, before we kick this weekend into party mode , let's do a quick update on Thursday's preview box office. Thunderbolts looks to be keeping its 4,330 theaters this weekend, and Snow White looks to be keeping her 1,300 theaters as well.

Thunderbolts needs a very strong third weekend to keep a momentum towards something north of $450 Million globally that could potentially get it to breakeven by June. And Snow White, well, she just needs to go away. But check back Sunday to see where they all land!

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Tuesday November 25, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Tuesday November 25, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[BrianLo]

I've tried to find some industry source online that says marketing is now only 25% of production, but I can't.

It’s not, and you know I did not say that. A snarky drive by poster definitely implied it, but they don’t actually engage with me.

I said it’s a floor of 40% on an expensive failure to 100+% on successes and is elastic to performance. I also said you cannot calculate it accurately, because it’s elastic and often far larger than you think it is.

I also did say: that you cannot assign all costs against only one revenue stream, when a production is costed (and advertised) to make money across many revenue streams. It can’t be untangled or you’ll keep getting false numbers.

I suggested if you really only want to count box office revenue you need to remove some cost, because the costs are tangled up against expected revenue and spend in the back end - and that number is 125%, not 150%. Which is NOT an estimate of true total costs, but the relationship box office revenue has against costs.

But at the end of the day, we’re going in circles.

 

[brideck]

Okay gang, before we kick this weekend into party mode...

Just planning to ignore my request?

Feel free to reshare your numbers for these 4 BOMBS!!!!1! so we can see what the difference looks like. Maybe then you could see why this is better, even though it hurts your brain to try to bend it to something that feels real to you.

The movies in question are The Marvels, Dial of Destiny, Haunted Mansion, and Wish. The numbers that you flog differ from reported reality by... well, by a lot. Which is the whole point in this most recent conversation around formulas.

 

[brideck]

Thunderbolts looks to be keeping its 4,330 theaters this weekend, and Snow White looks to be keeping her 1,300 theaters as well.

Also, definitely not. Theater counts typically change on Friday. Snow White will be back to a much lower number after its quick surge since it's available on PVOD now. Thunderbolts* will probably nearly maintain its number, but is going to drop another 30% of its screenings. [Now ~50% of where it opened.]

Thunderbolts* is expected to be in a dogfight with Sinners this weekend for 2nd place behind the new Final Destination, which is pulling in much better reviews than I expected.

 

[brideck]

How’s chronic excuses making from a strawmen assembly line?

You'd have to tell me. Because the fallacies in this thread? They ain't comin' from me.

 

[BrianLo]

Nobody questioned the marketing costs, budget, and profitability of IO2…because the excuse engine got the day off. When this starts…the wash is objectively it’s not doing well.

Unfortunately for you, I’m nothing if not consistent. Here I am correcting IO2 in real time. You probably forget because five of you pulled a disappearing act shortly after.

Inside Out 2: Production $200, Marketing $50, Domestic $350, Overseas $328 = $428 Million Profit & Counting

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Unfortunately for you, I’m nothing if not consistent. Here I am correcting IO2 in real time. You probably forget because five of you pulled a disappearing act shortly after.

What were you “correcting”? Budgetary estimates? Those aren’t hard numbers…and again…nobody questions them on the successful movies

And you again (for the 5 people that self reinforce with the likes)…just skipped the part where I said inside out was great and a huge hit

Keep peeing upwind. Successes aren’t argued…they just have to be proven. The entire issue is “failures aren’t actually failures”

For some reason…that has to be disputed every time

So now the benchmark for the expendables (or whatever the hell this one is called?) is Captain Falcon?

Minute point of order: that was a FAILURE

Yeah…like really it was